Gallup: Perry leads by double digits, Paul 3rd, Bachmann 4th

[Bull Moose Base]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Perry  29
Romney  17
Paul 13
Bachmann 10
Everyone else 4 or less

Everyone's finding the same thing.

So Perry is the new frontrunner.  The Perry world is the first time Romney hasn't been at least roughly tied for the national lead.  But I'd say he's been the frontrunner or co-frontrunner for long enough that his status as a candidate surpasses someone losing by double digits in national polls.  How does his strategy change at this point?  He'll very likely pivot from pretending like he's already the nominee and attack Perry a bit.  Labor Day week looks to be a pivotal one in the election.  Obama will unveil a jobs agenda that presumably will be a big part of his campaign since it's doubtful the GOP will give him much or any of it, Romney will reveal his own plan, and Perry and Romney will share a debate stage for the first time.  And for comic relief, I'm guessing Palin might turn up the crazy in her September 3 speech to get some attention and if she succeeds, maybe she'll get name-checked in the debate.

[Likely Voter]

looks like we have a new frontrunner.

the subgroups are interesting. Perry's biggest leads are all in the traditional GOP bases: men, southerners, conservatives, regular church goers, and older voters.



 

[redcommander]

Good to see one nutjob has fallen out of the top three. Hopefully the new frontrunner loses steam soon too.

[Bull Moose Base]

Could to see one nutjob has fallen out of the top three. Hopefully the new frontrunner loses steam soon too.

Thing is... if Perry is the flavor of the month, who are the next flavors?  Don't see any left that aren't already top tier.  It's probably him or Romney, conceivably Bachmann.

[redcommander]

Could to see one nutjob has fallen out of the top three. Hopefully the new frontrunner loses steam soon too.

Thing is... if Perry is the flavor of the month, who are the next flavors?  Don't see any left that aren't already top tier.  It's probably him or Romney, conceivably Bachmann.

Probably Chris Christie if he decides to get in this fall. Otherwise support will probably go back to Romney once Perry's exposes his craziness the primary voters.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Could to see one nutjob has fallen out of the top three. Hopefully the new frontrunner loses steam soon too.

Thing is... if Perry is the flavor of the month, who are the next flavors?  Don't see any left that aren't already top tier.  It's probably him or Romney, conceivably Bachmann.

Giuliani and Palin could fill up the last two candidates, but from then it comes down to the long runners.

[memphis]

Could to see one nutjob has fallen out of the top three. Hopefully the new frontrunner loses steam soon too.

Thing is... if Perry is the flavor of the month, who are the next flavors?  Don't see any left that aren't already top tier.  It's probably him or Romney, conceivably Bachmann.

Probably Chris Christie if he decides to get in this fall. Otherwise support will probably go back to Romney once Perry's exposes his craziness the primary voters.

I belive the GOP's primary voters are seeking crazy. Trump, Bachmann, Perry, etc. Obviously, it's all in how the votes get split, but craziness is the primary qualification for the GOP nomination.

[Mehmentum]

Why is it that Paul is doing much better in the Gallup poll than the poll PPP just released?

[Eraserhead]

How long until Paul overtakes Romney in Gallup? Place your bets.

[Mr. Morden]

If you include Giuliani and Palin:



Excluding Giuliani and Palin, trend since May:



Crosstabs:



The regional variation is pretty stark.  Perry has an enormous lead in the South, and a small lead in the rest of the country.  He's lucky that there's no longer much of a regional division in terms of the delegate allocation mechanisms.  There used to be more northern states that were WTA.

[argentarius]

Why is it that Paul is doing much better in the Gallup poll than the poll PPP just released?

Paul never seems to do well in PPP or McClatchy/Marist polls.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry's lead is especially large among those who say that social issues are most important.  Among those who say the economy is most important, Perry still leads, but Romney is closer: