IA/WI-PPP: Obama leads all Republicans in both states

[CARLHAYDEN]

This is an interesting case of the dichotomy of the PPP surveys.

The Wisconsin survey seems to be reasonably distributed in terms of respondents by partisan identification (37% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 29% Others/Independents) whereas the Iowa survey appears to be loaded in favor of Democrats (35% Democrat, 32% Republican and 33% Others/Independents).

When looking at Iowa, whether examining Registration, or exit polls (2008 and 2010), it would appear the Democrats constitute approximately 33% of likely 2012 voters, whereas Republicans constitute approximately 34% of likely 2012 voters.

The current party registration in Iowa is 33% DEM, 30% GOP and 37% IND.

Actually, the voter registration data as of August, 2011 is:

Party                              Number          Percentage
Democrat                      645,514                  33 
Republican                    610,285                  31
Other/Nonpartisan        705,919                 36
Total                          1,961,718                100

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/voterreg/county.html

[Tender Branson]

This is an interesting case of the dichotomy of the PPP surveys.

The Wisconsin survey seems to be reasonably distributed in terms of respondents by partisan identification (37% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 29% Others/Independents) whereas the Iowa survey appears to be loaded in favor of Democrats (35% Democrat, 32% Republican and 33% Others/Independents).

When looking at Iowa, whether examining Registration, or exit polls (2008 and 2010), it would appear the Democrats constitute approximately 33% of likely 2012 voters, whereas Republicans constitute approximately 34% of likely 2012 voters.

The current party registration in Iowa is 33% DEM, 30% GOP and 37% IND.

Actually, the voter registration data as of August, 2011 is:

Party                              Number          Percentage
Democrat                      645,514                  33 
Republican                    610,285                  31
Other/Nonpartisan        705,919                 36
Total                          1,961,718                100

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/voterreg/county.html

You forgot the inactive registered voters, of which there are more Democrats.

[CARLHAYDEN]

This is an interesting case of the dichotomy of the PPP surveys.

The Wisconsin survey seems to be reasonably distributed in terms of respondents by partisan identification (37% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 29% Others/Independents) whereas the Iowa survey appears to be loaded in favor of Democrats (35% Democrat, 32% Republican and 33% Others/Independents).

When looking at Iowa, whether examining Registration, or exit polls (2008 and 2010), it would appear the Democrats constitute approximately 33% of likely 2012 voters, whereas Republicans constitute approximately 34% of likely 2012 voters.

The current party registration in Iowa is 33% DEM, 30% GOP and 37% IND.

Actually, the voter registration data as of August, 2011 is:

Party                              Number          Percentage
Democrat                      645,514                  33  
Republican                    610,285                  31
Other/Nonpartisan        705,919                 36
Total                          1,961,718                100

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/voterreg/county.html

You forgot the inactive registered voters, of which there are more Democrats.

Yup.

All those "inactive" voters are going to come to the polls in 2012 (ROTFLMAO)

Now, PPP is presuming that in 2012 Iowa will be more Democrat (and less Republican) oriented than it was in 2008!

Here's the numbers:

Party ID                    PPP          2008 Exit Poll

Democrat                 35 %          34 %

Republican               32              33

Other                       33              33

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=IAP00p1

[MaxQue]

This is an interesting case of the dichotomy of the PPP surveys.

The Wisconsin survey seems to be reasonably distributed in terms of respondents by partisan identification (37% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 29% Others/Independents) whereas the Iowa survey appears to be loaded in favor of Democrats (35% Democrat, 32% Republican and 33% Others/Independents).

When looking at Iowa, whether examining Registration, or exit polls (2008 and 2010), it would appear the Democrats constitute approximately 33% of likely 2012 voters, whereas Republicans constitute approximately 34% of likely 2012 voters.

The current party registration in Iowa is 33% DEM, 30% GOP and 37% IND.

Actually, the voter registration data as of August, 2011 is:

Party                              Number          Percentage
Democrat                      645,514                  33  
Republican                    610,285                  31
Other/Nonpartisan        705,919                 36
Total                          1,961,718                100

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/voterreg/county.html

You forgot the inactive registered voters, of which there are more Democrats.

Yup.

All those "inactive" voters are going to come to the polls in 2012 (ROTFLMAO)

Now, PPP is presuming that in 2012 Iowa will be more Democrat (and less Republican) oriented than it was in 2008!

Here's the numbers:

Party ID                    PPP          2008 Exit Poll

Democrat                 35 %          34 %

Republican               32              33

Other                       33              33

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=IAP00p1

Well, even by reweighting the samples, Obama still leads by an healthy margin.

[CARLHAYDEN]

But, what are you 'reweighting' to?

2008 was an unusually good year for Democrats and an unusually bad year for Republicans.

2012 is likely to be less favorable to the Democrats and more favorable to the Republicans.

[Badger]

But the Browns, Carl, the Browns! Don't you know all those new immigrant voters are Obama's secret weapon?