Gender Wars

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

The following maps shows the gender differences between white males and white females in the individual states during the 2008 presidential election.  The national difference was 9 points.  States that hit that mark are shaded in gray.  Other states are shaded based on how far they strayed from the mean.  If a state had a difference of 2 points or less, it is shaded in 90% blue.  If the gender difference was 16 points or more, it is shaded in 90% red.  The differences are absolute values and do not take into account white females voted more GOP in Hawaii and Louisiana, only their voting difference from white men.  What immediately struck me was the huge differences in New England and Northeast voting.  If it were not for New England, the national average would probably have been closer to 4 or 5 points.  Some states in New England had a 30+ point spread!  In fact, if the gender differences were closed in those states, it is likely PA, NY, CT, NH and ME would have come more into play for McCain, or led to his possible victory in 1 or 2 of those states.

My question is why is there such a huge voting discrepancy in the Northeast between the sexes and will the gender gap close in 2012?

PS - I could find data on the voting pattern on whites in DC to determine if there was any difference.

[Username MechaRFK]

Unless things go really drown the drain, Obama will win the female vote and whoever GOP candidate wins the male vote.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Northeast gender gap: More singles, less polarized parties.

[Nichlemn]

In fact, if the gender differences were closed in those states, it is likely PA, NY, CT, NH and ME would have come more into play for McCain, or led to his possible victory in 1 or 2 of those states.

Why do you assume a closing of the gender gap would mean that women started voting more like men? Why couldn't it occur by men starting to vote more like women, or some combination of the two?

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

Unless things go really drown the drain, Obama will win the female vote and whoever GOP candidate wins the male vote.

Well, to be clear and in order to remove as many variables as possible, this map only reflects white voters.  McCain won the white female vote by 7 points.  I tried to do a black and hispanic map, but in most states there was not a big enough sample to get accurate data.

Northeast gender gap: More singles, less polarized parties.

I think more singles may definitely be part of it.  What do you mean by less polarized parties?  Do you mean the New England GOP is more liberal, and if so, why would that lead to a bigger gender gap in national elections?

In fact, if the gender differences were closed in those states, it is likely PA, NY, CT, NH and ME would have come more into play for McCain, or led to his possible victory in 1 or 2 of those states.

Why do you assume a closing of the gender gap would mean that women started voting more like men? Why couldn't it occur by men starting to vote more like women, or some combination of the two?

That is a good point.  It could very well mean the males vote more democrat.  However, nationally white males voted +16 for McCain and white females voted +7 McCain.  Northeastern white male voted much closer to the national average for white males than Northeastern white females did compared to the national average for white females.  For example CT white males (WM) McCain +8, WF Obama +19.  New York WM McCain +2, WF Obama +14.  Rhode Island WM - tie, WF Obama +33.  PA WM McCain +13, WF Obama +3. Since Northeastern white females voted significantly more democratic than the national average for white females than did Northeastern white males compared to the national average, I looked at Northeastern WF as a statistical aberration. 

[Free Palestine]

In general the gender gap in voting comes from how females are often raised to be more cooperative and caring, and thus more likely to be liberal, while men are raised to be more individualistic and whatnot, which makes them more likely to be conservative.

[Beet]

I read somewhere that it may have to do with Catholicism. But New Jersey is a real outlier.

[courts]

In general the gender gap in voting comes from how females are often raised to be more cooperative and caring,and thus more likely to be liberal, while men are raised to be more individualistic and whatnot, which makes them more likely to be conservative.

I find it funny you don't understand what you're actually implying.

[Mehmentum]

Why did you just compare white males and females instead of males and females in general?

[Username MechaRFK]

Why did you just compare white males and females instead of males and females in general?

Since most black and hispanic males are Democratic, I would say doing the white male to female gap would be better study. McCain won the white female vote by 7 points but Obama had better showing in this group of voters then the white males that were overwhelming John McCain sadly.

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

In general the gender gap in voting comes from how females are often raised to be more cooperative and caring, and thus more likely to be liberal, while men are raised to be more individualistic and whatnot, which makes them more likely to be conservative.

That may be true in general, but my question was why is so much more pronounced in the Northeast?

I read somewhere that it may have to do with Catholicism. But New Jersey is a real outlier.

I'll agree NJ was definitely surprising to me.  If that small gap stays consistent in 2012, it may indicate the state is trending GOP (though on the other hand, the gender disparity was also quite small in Montana and that state has been trending D recently).

Why did you just compare white males and females instead of males and females in general?

I thought reducing the map to a specific group of people may remove any inter-gender issues that are specific to blacks or Hispanics of which I was not aware.  In most places the black vote was over 95% democratic.  The BM/BF gap probably would only run 1-3 points and might mask the white gender gap.  The whites only map really emphasized the disparity between men and women in the Northeast.  The chief reason I posted this map was to see if anyone had some good ideas as to why this specific gap existed.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I think more singles may definitely be part of it.  What do you mean by less polarized parties?  Do you mean the New England GOP is more liberal, and if so, why would that lead to a bigger gender gap in national elections?

I mean that the GOP is more moderate in New England than in other parts of the country, which means that ticket-splitting in households would be more common, since the two parties in New England aren't as far apart as they are in, say, Texas, California, or Colorado.