Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011

[Jens]

Nice link

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Jens would know better (obviously) but I dimly remember the polls giving the government leads until the end of the campaign when things tightened up a lot.

At the last election in 2007, the polls all showed a "hung" parliament until literaly the last day(s). It looked like the VKO-majority was gone and that the new party, New Alliance (now Liberal Alliance) would hold the decisive votes. NA managed to mess everything up, went from about 5-6 % to 2,8 % of the votes and those 2-3 % moved to VKO, who just keep their majority.

[Jens]

I hope he comes back. Even if only to post in this thread.

I never really left But I am quite busy with the campaign here in Cph...

[Jens]

Any reason for R/B's growth and the decline of DF and K? Also, kind of surprising SF is level right now. Not so long ago they were doing great.

Conservatives did it for them self, when Lene Espersen took over from Bent Bentsen as leader of K and pushed the quite well liked Per Stig Møller from the Ministry of Foreig Affairs - he became Minister of Culture - and then managed to gain a reputation as lazy and always on vacation. At the same time Liberal Alliance run a succesfull campaign that branded the party as the party for the young libetarian man, essential stealing an important part of the conservative voting base.

Never trust any polls that indicate a decline for DF. They have quite the shy voter base.

Radikale has managed to rebrand them self as compassionate centre right and has quite a succes when they finally got a reform of the "efterløn" (a early retirement system started in the 70'ties, that allowes people to retire between 60 and 65 on a reduced pension). They have attracted a lot of the so called Café Latte-voters who like all the environmental stuff and agree to the idea of the wellfare state (to a certain limit) but don't really like that they have to pay taxes (and are having a hard time about DF. They are predominately big city people and well educated).

SF enjoyed a long run with very positive press, but in last years the right started to attact SF. A campaign about the chef whips past as chairman of the communist party in the late 80'ties (he was kicked out from DKP by the hardcore stalinist later) and another where SF's full name always was said, to illustrate that the party was socialists (my oh my! ) did some damage, but the big thing was the so called point system late last year.
The government introduced a point system for immigrants that was rather complex and in its essence made it easier to immigrate to Denmark or bring a foreign partner into the country if he or she was from the right countries (no need to say which) or was educated.
SF handled the situation about the point system pretty badly, not really saying whether SF was for or against and the next week S and SF presented their own point system, that really wasn't a point system, but five demands where you had to forfill 3 of them to be allowed residency. But at lot of the more left wing SF voters saw it as the same bacis concept as the governments and left for Enhedslisten and some of the creative class (as we call them) left for Radikale.

And now I'm of to campaign (in rain and thunder - everything for the party )

[Jens]

Hi guys
Lots of great questions from you, and some utterly stupid discussion about SF - I'll probably answer that at some point....

The Jyllandsposten test is ok - I'll try to answer any questions that might be (and if I suddenly find some time - to translate it)

[Jens]

Isn't there an island in Denmark called LOLland

Yup, and a city called Middelfart - and do notice that when you use an elevator, a sigh lights up with this text: "I fart"

And I know a guy, who's name is Bent Kock...

[Jens]

"F"?

A little repetition ;-)

A = Socialdemokratiet (Social Democrats). Alt. S or SD
B = Radikale Venstre (Social Liberal Party. Litt. Radical Left). Alt. R or RV
C = Konservative Folkeparti (Conservative People's Party). Alt. K
F = Socialistisk Folkeparti (Socialist People's Party). Alt. SF (most common)
I = Liberal Alliance. Alt. LA
K = Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats). Alt. KD
O = Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People's Party). Alt. DF
V = Venstre (Liberal Party. Litt. Left).
Ø = Enhedslisten (Unity List). Alt. EL

[Jens]

Done for test purposes as much else. Map shows leading party in 2007 by percentage lead and (because the way the Danish party system be) is actively misleading in a couple of places. Party vote maps more fun, but they'll come later. Outline map taken from the Electoral Geography site, not sure where from originally though. Will credit if required, etc.

Nice map. It do shows Venstre's strength in Jutland, mostly West, South and Triangle area (Vejle, Kolding, Fredericia). SF's power centre in Copenhagen and Lolland (caused by the late great Flemming Bonne, former mayor in Nakskov) SD's strength in the mayor cities and in suburbia. And the Conservative capital of Gentofte.

When you make the party maps, you'll see that Enhedslisten gets most of its votes in central Århus and Copenhagen.
That Radikale Venstre also is a big city party. Little is left of the former radicale strongholds in Holbæk and Salling/Skive.
And that Dansk Folkeparti's votes comes from quite the same areas as Venstre and some parts of suburbia (but not in the areas with high concentration of immigrants)

[Jens]

"F"?

A little repetition ;-)

A = Socialdemokratiet (Social Democrats). Alt. S or SD
B = Radikale Venstre (Social Liberal Party. Litt. Radical Left). Alt. R or RV
C = Konservative Folkeparti (Conservative People's Party). Alt. K
F = Socialistisk Folkeparti (Socialist People's Party). Alt. SF (most common)
I = Liberal Alliance. Alt. LA
K = Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats). Alt. KD
O = Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People's Party). Alt. DF
V = Venstre (Liberal Party. Litt. Left).
Ø = Enhedslisten (Unity List). Alt. EL

Yeah, the only one of these I ever can remember is A. (And V because it's obvious, obviously.)

C is fairly obvious too. I, O and Ø doesn't really make sense

[Jens]

Anyone kind enough to give any brief outlines of the issues, the parties, how the leaders are perceived, etc? Thanks for any help.

Venstre/Liberal:Just want to stay in power, ideological push some buzz words about individual choice and freedom, but after ten years of expanding the bureaucracy no one really believe them. Mostly push that they aren't the SocDems. Their leader PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen are seen as a tired little man, who fumble from issue to issue. Most believe them to be more responsable on fiscal issues

Social Democrats: People mostly see them as the guarantee for the survival of the welfare state, use most of their time warning that it's going hurt when they get power and say that everybody are going to hurt everybody equally and they promise nothing. Ironic this seem popular among the population, mostly because they are tired of Venstre, but also because it's seen as a short term il tasting medicine. Helle Thorning-Schmidt is not very popular neither internal in the party or among the wider population, but most think that she will be a good PM. She will likely win.
While left, the SocDems lack the bleeding hearts of the rest of the left, and are willing to do what's necessary to win, rule or make Denmark prosper. This are a mayor reason to why they can get away with promise doom to everybody, because people know that the SocDem want what's best for the entire population, even if it hurt on the road to that goal

DPP: Nationalist, anti-immigration, anti-EU, want to turn the clock back to the early sixties, through they are pro-choice and gay rights. Beside their voter segment most people are tired of them, including the rest of the right, so they have started a internal war on the right with the conservative. They will likely win the battle but lose influence, by making the centre-right voters move to the left. Pia Kjærsgaard is the most hated, feared and respected politician in Danish politic, but most voters want her to lose influence.

SPP: Have more less evolved into the left-wing of the SocDems, doesn't love EU like most parties but accept it. Villy Søvndal have a incredible personal popularity, but he has become unable to translate that into votes anymore.

Social Liberals: Bleeding hearts liberals, imagine a American liberal, with more fiscal conservative policies, but all the arrongance of the American "centrists".
They want to lower the taxes on work, raise it on property, open the borders for immigration, more European federalism and cooperation between the right and left (keep DPP away from power). Their biggest weakness are their arrogance, which ensure that many who agree with them won't vote for them, another weakness are that their voters tend to be a lot more fiscal left than they are. Margrethe Vestage hard to say, the media and the "creative class" love her, but outside that segment people tgend to find her off putting.

Conservatives: Want to cooperate over the middle to get rid of DPP's influence, through after ten years of cooperation few believes them, beside that lower taxes. Lars Barfod: who?

Liberal Alliance:; Lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes and lower taxes. The party is more or less bought and paid by Saxo Bank, a bank well known for it asocial and borderline criminal behaviour. Anders Samuelsen want to create a new centrist party, the problem are that the moment Saxo Bank cut the fiscal support the party is unlikely to survive. As a person Anders are popular among his voters and seen as a fanatic by everybody else.

Unity List: take a standard college socialist's opinions and make a party out of that and you have unity list. Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen she's something of a light weight, but she's also the world's nicest girl, that's maybe her biggest strength, everybody like her, including her opponents, so not only they don't want to attack, they would likely get a backlash from their voters if they did. So even Pia Kjærsgaard, who take a deep personal pleasure in ripping the limbs of other politicians treat her nice.

Christian Democrats: anti-abortion, anti-gay adoption but beside that a typical centre left party, except that they hate the centre-left. Per Ørum Jørgensen a complete non-entity.

Nice post, and welcome to the forum. I don't agree with everything, especially the part about SF for obvious reasons but hey, it's you outline

[Jens]

I suppose the letter O has more white in it than any other letter?

LOL, you might be right - And D was taken by Centre Democrats, when DF was founded. (I always think of it as a zero, symbolising their understanding of modern society among other things;-)

[Jens]

RV used to have non-Copenhagen support. How did these places differ from Venstre dominated municipalities.

More smallholders and certain local personalities and radical newspapers (Holbæk Amts Venstreblad)

[Jens]

We just had the last party leaders debate on DR.
The PM seemed like a man under pressure and Pia Kærsgaard kept on trying to attack Villy Søvndal without succes. I don't really think that the debate changed much and most certainly easn't a game changer for Lars Løkke.

To summarise a bit on the whole polling debate: The polling firms are spitting out polls every day and a few of them show a close race. The closest was 88 to Red Block and 87 to Blue Block, but remember that the most likely outcome of the North Atlantic mandates is 2 red from Greenland and 1 red and 1 blue from Faroe Islands. Blue Block thus needs 89 Danish mandates to win, and no poll has been even close to that.

Internally in the blocks, there has been some changes.
Enhedslisten is on its way to its best result ever, around 5-7 %. Not since the 70'ties has the extreme left has such a succes. A lot of it is because of Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, the young and charimatic spokesperson for the List. Not the other hand has the List been under heavy fire the last few days because of the quite radical opinions of its members, who want to nationalise Maersk and Lego and support FARC and PFLP. Enhedslisten will get an excellent result but perhaps "only" around 5 %.
Radikale Venstre has also gained and is looking at a result around 7-9 %. Again a charimatic leader, Margrethe Vestager, holds some of the explanation but also some clear stances on immigration, economy, taxes and early retirement has attracted the Café Latte segment, who adored SF and Villy Søvndal in 2007

The losers are SF and S who at best is going to get the same result as in 2007. S perhaps a bit over, SF probably a bit under. Both parties are suffering from their somewhat pragmatic (and boring) policies and a Villy Søvndal and SF who have had a hard time being the responsible government party... (me no like )

Blue Block hasn't showed the same major changes. Conservatives is loosing bad and is going to lose half their seats. Venstre is losing a little. DF is unpredictable a usual and Liberal Alliance is probably going to get a decent result if their can control some of their more unconventional candidates, like Joachim B. Olsen, former Olympic bronze medalist in short putting, who started talking about allowing polygamy (and he isn't even a Mormon)...

Sorry about not posting much - real life campaining is keeping me quite bussy

[Jens]

Yeah, I noticed the collapsed Conservative vote. Where have they gone? To Venstre?

Liberal Alliance, and Radikale Venstre possibly

Primarily to LA, but also to Venstre, who have lost votes to SD (working class votes), who have lost votes to SF (more left wing social democrats) who have lost votes to Radikale (Cafë Latte) and Enhedslisten (Latte and left wing socialists)

[Jens]

BTW, why is the Right-coalition not referred to as "VOCI", but as "VCOI" - even though the "O" was/is bigger than the "C" ?

V and C is the government parties and the government is called VK-regeringen (the VK government. Nobody calls it VC because WC and VC is pronounced the same way in Danish )
The Blue Block was originally called VKO, with DF as the supporting party providing the necessary mandates for the majority. Shortly after the 2007 election did VKO lose the majority (a conservative left the party) and became dependent on Liberal Alliance, thus adding the I to the Blue Block = VKOI or VCOI, but nobody uses that. It's still VKO, much like a coming SD-led minority government will be called S-SF-R or ABF even though Ø will supply the last mandates for the majority. 

[Jens]

I just found out Thoring-Schmidt is married to Niel Kinnock's son. Am I the only one who didn't know this already? That's quite intresting considering there seem to be a few similarities between Denmark '11 and Britain '92.

A goverment that is fighting for it's fourth general election victory, with a new PM who replaced a more charismatic leader mid-term. Polls showing a relativly close election, but the opposition having the edge. It's the opposition leader's second general election, but the leader seem unable to get people especially exited about their party and support for the opposition seems more due to people being tired with the goverment than them actually wanting the alternative.

There might (although very unlikly) be a chance of Helle following in her father-in-laws footsteps tomorrow.

 

Common knowledge in Denmark, but a lot don't know who Neil Kinnock is
Danish PM don't tent to be popular before they become PM's - PR makes coalitions necessary and doesn't promote a "presidential" election - especially not in this election, where the most popular politicians all are from smaller parties. Margrethe Vestager, Villy Søvndal and Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen are all far more popular that Helle Thorning and Lars Løkke and are liked by more than 50 % of the population. That gives this situation where the smaller parties attract a lot of the votes. There is a good change that the two largest parties will not hold a majority, quite a change from 2001, where SD and V had more that 60 % of the votes.

[Jens]

So both Thoring-Schmidt and Søvndal apperently saying that the 24-year rule will remain in place if (when) they form the next goverment. So they're not even going to get rid of the most stupid of DP's immigration restrictions. Guess that removes any reason I might have had to want a red victory

The 24-year rule stays because the Socialdemocrats want it to. And they have a majority with V, K and O. So yes, but SF doesn't support it, but has made an agreement with SD that removes some of the other bad things introduced under the current government, most importantly the socalled Starthjælp (litt. start help) a heavily reduced social benefit and the ban on asylum seekers working and living outside the asylum centres while their case it being processed (which can take years). Right now they are locked up in the centres for years and years.

[Jens]

But honestly O(DPP) voters hate R more than anybody else, so it's something of a empty threat.

That's what I expected.

Would you agree with the argument that the Radikale Venstre fill the gap for the nonexistent Greens in Denmark? Well educated electorate, focusing on post-materialist issues etc.

No SF mostly take that position, through now that they have begun to embrace more coherent and pragmatic position, Enhedslisten has begun to take over that position. Radikale Venstre are closer to FDP in ideology, through they often share voters with SF and Enhedslisten, through they have gotten a influx of conservative voters in this election.

Well, I don't completely agree with that description. SF managed to incorporate the green movements in the party in the late 70'ties and early 80'ties, which meant the the Danish Green Party never got more than 1 ½ % of the votes. That is also why SF went from less that 4 % in 1977 to 11 % in 1981. The same thing happened in Norway, and is to some extent connected with the fact that SF and SV were "new" parties and not associated with the old communist movement. In Sweden and Germany with Vpk and DKP that wasn't a possibility.
Radikale has been from the foundation the party of the intelligentsia and never closely associated with NGO's (or movements, as it's called on the Danish left wing ) Originally FDP and RV shared quite a lot, but today FDP's real sister party in Denmark is Liberal Alliance. SF and RV might share a lot of policies on social values, and in that way do share voters, but is quite different on economical policies - If you where a bit cynical, you might say that many RV voters are left wingers, who now earns money and are felling the Danish taxation (topskat)  

[Jens]

So both Thoring-Schmidt and Søvndal apperently saying that the 24-year rule will remain in place if (when) they form the next goverment. So they're not even going to get rid of the most stupid of DP's immigration restrictions. Guess that removes any reason I might have had to want a red victory

The 24-year rule stays because the Socialdemocrats want it to. And they have a majority with V, K and O. So yes, but SF doesn't support it, but has made an agreement with SD that removes some of the other bad things introduced under the current government, most importantly the socalled Starthjælp (litt. start help) a heavily reduced social benefit and the ban on asylum seekers working and living outside the asylum centres while their case it being processed (which can take years). Right now they are locked up in the centres for years and years.

So they might change one of the most outlandish horrible immigration policies, but leave the rest. Personally I don't feel that makes up for it. The Social Democrats in Denmark has every fault of the Social Democrats in Sweden, but they even lack the redeming qualities that our Social Democrats has. The fact that they're so unwilling to change the 24-year rule shows that they're just as willing as Venstre and Konservative to throw immigrants under the bus to obtain electoral success and power.  

Cannot disagree with that - but 10 years of DF "in power" has caused quite a change in discourse compared with Sweden.

[Jens]

Jens, when can we expect exit polls and first results ?

And do you know a TV channel, where we can watch online ?

First exit polls around 6 pm (yes, before the polling places closes, and no, I don't like it).

Silkeborg South and North usually are the bellweather districts.
http://www.kmdvalg.dk/FV%5C2011/F905.htm
http://www.kmdvalg.dk/FV%5C2011/F906.htm

First reliable forecast is around 10 PM, but if it is a close race, it could be after 12 - and as in 1998 depend on the North Atlantic mandates

You can follow the count on this link: http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2011/ It's the official site, and besides the news outlets, the only online source (no local result reports)

Online telly is a bit harder. You can try http://www.net-tv.tk/ but I don't know if it works. TV-2 NEWS and DR Update (we do love our English names )have coverage all through the night.

[Jens]

the only phrases I know in Danish are "skal" and "jeg vil kneppe dig" but I think politiken.dk is predicting a 92-83 left majority:

http://politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/

I think you mean skål - otherwise you are saying "I must" - I will not translate the other frase, because some kids might read this

[Jens]

As for me, if I were a Danish voter, I would vote:



today, mostly because of what TheDeadFlagBlues has said. Enhedslisten & Socialistisk Folkeparti are too radical in my opinion while the Social Democrats are for the status quo. Radikale Venstre is right there in the middle and electable. I hope they get close to 10% or more.

What are the chances that the Right pulls an upset tomorrow?

I'm very interested to see the results from this election and I hope that the Radikale Venstre can carve out a niche in Denmark that the Greens have in the rest of Europe. Social democrats across Europe need a firm kick to remember who they're serving (hint: not austerity-obsessed technocrats). I supposed that thinking from that perspective I should be cheering for the Unity List but I can't stand gimmicky radical left wing parties that are really concerned with pet issues of the wealthy like feminism and being against globalization. The Socialists rubbed me the wrong way with their capitulation on immigration as well.

humm, Café Latte Liberals

[Jens]

What are the odds that a new Red government would move to implement marriage equality?

That will happen - especially SF and RV are very determined and will push it through.

[Jens]

tv 2 exit poll
93 red
86 blue

[Jens]

Exit Poll in 2 minutes.

http://sputnik.tv2.dk/valg/

There is a Danish TV called Sputnik ? Damn commiez.

Anyways, I'm watching this. Understand nothing, but hopefully they'll show some numbers soon.

They won't show any numbers until at least 10pm, because the voting booths are still open until 8pm (for some strange reason).

and sputnik isn't working right now!!!

[Jens]

Needs to be augmented with party strength maps for all parties represented in parliament.

And you shall receive.

As always, right click for full size.

This is great - absolut gold. 2 things:
May I use it? I'll give you credit for it of couse
and
Will you do the same for the rest of the country? In case you only can (or will) do a bit, I would very much like to see maps of Københavns Omegns Storkreds (Suburbian Copenhagen) and Nordsjællands Storkreds (North Sealand)