Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice link

---

Jens would know better (obviously) but I dimly remember the polls giving the government leads until the end of the campaign when things tightened up a lot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results last time, just to give a general, you know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You'd think an American right-winger would have at least a small soft sport for a party founded by a CIA agent

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't there an island in Denmark called LOLland

Yup, and a city called Middelfart - and do notice that when you use an elevator, a sigh lights up with this text: "I fart"

And I know a guy, who's name is Bent Kock...

Lolland is especially good because you have the obvious LOL thing, but also because of the Lollards.

Mind you, I also like the fact that there's a small island in Denmark called Møn (speaking as someone who lives within sight of Môn).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Take it outside, please. Denmark. Den-mark. Denmark only, I think. Diolch, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Megafon poll from yesterday had the Social Democrats slightly behind Venstre, but the left still easily ahead. I hope this doesn't become another left-wing "defeat from the jaws of victory" moment we've grown oh so used to.

Seems that a lot of polls come out every day or so; trackers? So long there are only a few like that, best not to worry too much.

Besides, I don't think that 'defeat from the jaws of victory' is limited to our side of the fence. Most recent defeats have been obvious from miles off, and quite a few haven't been quite so bad as looked likely during the campaign. Mind you, if that sort of thing happens just once it can be quite scarring.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which shows up in maps of party, support of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yews but you can't see it on regional maps, you need to look at municipality to municipality, and with the last reform many of the rural municipalities has become integrated with former urban municipalities, which are why the SocDem are so dominating on in municipality elections*. The Conservatives are especially strong in Northeast Zealand centred on Gentofte (the richest municipality in Denmark), beside that their primary strongholds are Frederiksberg and Odense. Through they are losing influence in the latter, thanks to the more neoliberal attitude they have taken over the last decade.

Are results of the last general election by municipality still online somewhere?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Often the way when local government changes are influenced by partisan considerations. The old South Glamorgan County Council was drawn in the 1970s to give the Tories a better than even chance of running it in an even year, but had a Labour majority for all but four years of its existence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yews but you can't see it on regional maps, you need to look at municipality to municipality, and with the last reform many of the rural municipalities has become integrated with former urban municipalities, which are why the SocDem are so dominating on in municipality elections*. The Conservatives are especially strong in Northeast Zealand centred on Gentofte (the richest municipality in Denmark), beside that their primary strongholds are Frederiksberg and Odense. Through they are losing influence in the latter, thanks to the more neoliberal attitude they have taken over the last decade.

Are results of the last general election by municipality still online somewhere?

http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2007/dk.htm

Ah, diolch, diolch, diolch... I shall do something with this. Some work to do first, but, then...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

*They are strong in urban area, and moderate sized in rural areas, so they benefitted the most of these reforms (which was meant to weaken them)

Gerrymandering backfire ? That's quite interesting, how exactly did it happen ?

Politicians are generally terrible judges of such things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Done for test purposes as much else. Map shows leading party in 2007 by percentage lead and (because the way the Danish party system be) is actively misleading in a couple of places. Party vote maps more fun, but they'll come later. Outline map taken from the Electoral Geography site, not sure where from originally though. Will credit if required, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SF's letter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose the letter O has more white in it than any other letter?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To see it in its full glory (?), use the magic of right click. Some minor errors are always possible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There have been more than that, yeah. A link was posted earlier in the thread and here bist: http://politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't get the left's apparent downfall... Did something particular happen in these last weeks ?

It's a pretty small shift and it's not so strange for governments to mount a bit of a comeback during an election, especially if they've been polling terribly for a while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I noticed the collapsed Conservative vote. Where have they gone? To Venstre?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's interesting (though not really surprising) that the different last trackers all show similar overall numbers (92 left, 91 left, 91 left, 92 left) but show different things within each block.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Should I make being a clichéd hipster an infractable offence?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Megafon exit poll:

 LA 5,2 (9)

 Kons 6,0 (11)

 Enh. 6,6 (12)

 Radikale 10,0 (18)

 SF 11,5 (20)

 DF 12,2 (21)

 V: 23,6 (41)

 S: 24,6 (43)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL.

90-89 for the Right.

This turns out to have been an error: http://politiken.dk/politik/ECE1394098/exitpoll-broeler-paa-tv-2-blaa-blok-stod-til-90-mandater/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, closeness.

But where hath been counted?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

90-85 to the Left with over 40% counted.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, closeness.

But where hath been counted?

According to the map on the Danish radio-page, not much of Kopenhagen is in yet. No other region sticks out.

Ah, that probably counts as a good sign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

81% in... and it's still 88-87.