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Author Topic: Canadian Polling Database  (Read 1300 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 01, 2011, 11:58:21 PM »

To Al: Please do not delete this. My plan is to turn this into a thread that is so awesome that it'll be stickied.

Preface: It is easy to find polls, broken down my province, since the merger in 2003; but finding polls prior to this is much more difficult... until now.

I've found a great cache of Canadian polls. Every month. From December 2000 to January 1949. More than that, they are broken down, by province, and after August of 1993, by regions within provinces. They are Gallup polls.

Beyond that, this website has polls done by firms that are not Gallup, meaning the period from January 2001 to December 2003 can easily be filled in using Environics, CROP, Leger, Angus-Reid, etc.

I'd like to record each poll, by province, and post it here.

This is where you come in.

This is, minimum, 624 polls. Polls usually ask for parties; 4 or 5 of them. Assuming they all have 4, and assuming they only use the 10 provinces, that is 24,960 datapoints. Needless to say for me to do this on my own would be "difficult".

Hence, I'm wondering if anyone is interested in mining this data with me. There'll be plenty of time with politics on the brain over the next 2 weeks, with no guarentee that news will satisfy your cravings.

I've built an excel file that makes imputing this data easy. In addition, it autocalcs, from the data, polls for the 6 "polling regions" of Canada. BC, Alberta, the central Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic. I feel that clumping like this is really needed as some polls have literally 3 respondents from PEI (Margin of Error = 57%) so clumping things in to the Atlantic makes it more reliable. It is then that data that would be posted here.

In short, I think 12 polls is a good chunk to do at one time, hence, please PM me (do not post here, as I'd like to save all the posts in this thread for the data, and the data alone) with a year in mind you'd like to do. I've done/am working on 2010 and 1993, but all the others are free. I have little-to-no interest of looking at polls between 1959 and 1979 inclusive, so if you are interested in something between those dates, the year is as good as "yours".

Ideally, in a week or two we can have every poll done, and can post it to this thread, which then gets stickied and we become THE resource! Smiley
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2011, 06:10:04 AM »

PREVIEW

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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2011, 03:14:39 AM »

Very few responces, so I'll open this up.

I'll start to post topline results.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2011, 04:03:15 AM »

00.0% Liberal
00.0% PC Party
00.0% CCF
00.0% Social Credit
00.0% Creditiste
00.0% LabPro (Communist)
^^ TEMPLATE ^^


July 1953
50.2% Liberal
29.5% PC Party
11.4% CCF
8.0% Social Credit
0.9% LabPro (Communist)

March 1954
52.8% Liberal
25.4% PC Party
13.6% CCF
7.5% Social Credit
0.7% LabPro (Communist)

Feb 1955
52.9% Liberal
25.0% PC Party
15.4% CCF
5.4% Social Credit
0.5% Creditiste
0.7% LabPro (Communist)

Nov 1955
48.0% Liberal
30.3% PC Party
12.1% CCF
9.4% Social Credit
00.2% LabPro (Communist)

Mar 1956
46.5% Liberal
31.0% PC Party
13.0% CCF
8.7% Social Credit
00.7% LabPro (Communist)

Sept 1956
54.6% Liberal
28.0% PC Party
8.9% CCF
7.5% Social Credit
1.0% LabPro (Communist)

Jan 1957
50.8% Liberal
30.3% PC Party
9.4% CCF
8.8% Social Credit
0.7% LabPro (Communist)

March 1957
48.1% Liberal
31.8% PC Party
10.6% CCF
8.9% Social Credit
0.6% LabPro (Communist)
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2011, 04:04:38 AM »

Space saver, provincial breakdowns though the Diefenbaker era, continuing after the 1963 election
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2011, 04:07:01 AM »
« Edited: October 04, 2011, 05:57:58 AM by Teddy (SoFE) »

November 1963
46.9% Liberal
36.1% PC Party
9.5% NDP
7.5% Social Credit

November 1964
53.2% Liberal
31.8% PC Party
07.5% NDP
06.4% Social Credit
00.2% Creditiste
00.8% LabPro (Communist)

November 1965
43.7% Liberal
29.0% PC Party
18.5% NDP
06.8% Social Credit
01.3% Creditiste
00.7% LabPro (Communist)

October 1966
43.6% Liberal
26.1% PC Party
22.7% NDP
06.0% Social Credit
01.5% Creditiste

September 1967
47.0% Liberal
35.8% PC Party
12.7% NDP
03.6% Social Credit
00.4% Creditiste
00.4% LabPro (Communist)

August 1968
52.3% Liberal
26.7% PC Party
14.0% NDP
06.0% Social Credit
00.6% Creditiste
00.4% LabPro (Communist)

July 1969
42.6% Liberal
28.0% PC Party
21.9% NDP
04.0% Social Credit
03.3% Creditiste
00.2% LabPro (Communist)

July 1970
54.2% Liberal
26.4% PC Party
15.0% NDP
02.6% Social Credit
01.6% Creditiste
00.2% LabPro (Communist)

March 1971
48.9% Liberal
26.4% PC Party
20.1% NDP
02.6% Social Credit
01.5% Creditiste
00.4% LabPro (Communist)

July 1971
47.6% Liberal
22.5% PC Party
22.0% NDP
03.1% Social Credit
04.4% Creditiste
00.4% LabPro (Communist)

November 1971
42.6% Liberal
32.9% PC Party
18.4% NDP
03.0% Social Credit
03.2% Creditiste

May 1972
40.5% Liberal
34.3% PC Party
16.5% NDP
02.9% Social Credit
04.7% Creditiste
01.1% LabPro (Communist)

March 1973
40.2% Liberal
30.0% PC Party
19.9% NDP
03.1% Social Credit
06.6% Creditiste
00.2% LabPro (Communist)

November 1973
51.1% Liberal
26.5% PC Party
17.3% NDP
02.5% Social Credit
02.3% Creditiste
00.3% LabPro (Communist)

June 1974
49.5% Liberal
28.6% PC Party
17.2% NDP
01.4% Social Credit
03.3% Creditiste

April 1975
50.9% Liberal
28.5% PC Party
15.4% NDP
02.7% Social Credit
02.1% Creditiste
00.5% LabPro (Communist)

October 1975
43.2% Liberal
31.4% PC Party
20.3% NDP
02.3% Social Credit
02.3% Creditiste
00.5% LabPro (Communist)

February 1976
40.7% Liberal
35.0% PC Party
19.6% NDP
01.7% Social Credit
02.9% Creditiste
00.2% LabPro (Communist)

March 1976
41.7% PC Party
36.3% Liberal
16.7% NDP
02.8% Social Credit
02.1% Creditiste
00.3% LabPro (Communist)

September 1976
44.7% PC Party
34.6% Liberal
15.2% NDP
01.9% Social Credit
03.3% Creditiste
00.3% LabPro (Communist)

February 1977
44.5% Liberal
35.1% PC Party
16.8% NDP
01.6% Social Credit
01.2% Creditiste
00.9% LabPro (Communist)

February 1978
46.7% Liberal
34.3% PC Party
16.9% NDP
01.0% Social Credit
01.0% Creditiste

Janurary 1979
41.6% Liberal
39.6% PC Party
16.2% NDP
01.7% Social Credit
00.8% Creditiste

October 1979
42.2% Liberal
37.1% PC Party
18.9% NDP
00.6% Social Credit
01.1% Creditiste

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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2011, 04:07:59 AM »

Space saver, 1980-1985 breakdowns, showing the collapse of the Liberals in places like Quebec
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2011, 04:09:07 AM »

Space saver, 1985-1990, regional breakdowns, a little less dense than the above post, to show the NDP's rise to greatness.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2011, 04:10:03 AM »

Space saver, mid 1990 through the 1993 election, breakdowns, very dense (this might be the longest post of all of them)
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2011, 04:11:37 AM »

Space saver, 1993-1999, breakdowns, very non-dense (IE 2 polls a year, maybe 4 in election years)
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2011, 04:13:09 AM »

Space Saver 1999-2001, dense, breakdowns, the last of the gallup polls, showing the evolution of Reform into the Alliance

-------

Space Saver 2001-2003, non gallup polls, breakdowns, showing the creation of the Conservative Party.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2011, 04:14:51 AM »

Space Saver, 2003-2011, combo of breakdowns and toplines
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2011, 04:16:18 AM »

Space Saver, final "current" post. This begins at the start of the 2011 election and shows, weekly, if not daily, with breakdowns, how the NDP rose to the top. Once I hit the current date, I stop. Any further polling will have to be linked to though some sort of table of contents. And with that, this thread is open to any and all comments!
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2011, 02:26:08 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2011, 02:28:47 PM by Teddy (SoFE) »

Ok, so the good news is that some years have much more data than imagined in my wildest dreams.

The bad news is that some years have no data at all. 2002 for example.

The good news is that someone else has compiled post 03 data. Here you go

Topline
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=2&dateToStart=2003-01-01&dateToEnd=2006-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=2&dateToStart=2006-01-01&dateToEnd=2009-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=2&dateToStart=2009-01-01&dateToEnd=2011-04-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=2&dateToStart=2011-04-01&dateToEnd=2011-05-01&max=60&S_ID=-1

Ontario
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?dateToStart=2003-01-01&dateToEnd=2006-01-01&S_ID=-1&catID=3&max=60
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?dateToStart=2006-01-01&dateToEnd=2009-01-01&S_ID=-1&catID=3&max=60
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?dateToStart=2009-01-01&dateToEnd=2011-04-01&S_ID=-1&catID=3&max=60
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?dateToStart=2011-04-01&dateToEnd=2011-05-01&S_ID=-1&catID=3&max=60

Quebec
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=4&dateToStart=2003-01-01&dateToEnd=2006-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?dateToStart=2006-01-01&dateToEnd=2009-01-01&S_ID=-1&catID=3&max=60
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=4&dateToStart=2009-01-01&dateToEnd=2011-04-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=4&dateToStart=2011-04-01&dateToEnd=2011-05-01&max=60&S_ID=-1

Atlantic
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=5&dateToStart=2003-01-01&dateToEnd=2006-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=5&dateToStart=2006-01-01&dateToEnd=2009-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=5&dateToStart=2009-01-01&dateToEnd=2011-04-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=5&dateToStart=2011-04-01&dateToEnd=2011-05-01&max=60&S_ID=-1

Prairies
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=6&dateToStart=2003-01-01&dateToEnd=2006-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=6&dateToStart=2006-01-01&dateToEnd=2009-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=6&dateToStart=2009-01-01&dateToEnd=2011-04-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=6&dateToStart=2011-04-01&dateToEnd=2011-05-01&max=60&S_ID=-1

British Columbia
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=7&dateToStart=2003-01-01&dateToEnd=2006-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=7&dateToStart=2006-01-01&dateToEnd=2009-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=7&dateToStart=2009-01-01&dateToEnd=2011-04-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=7&dateToStart=2011-04-01&dateToEnd=2011-05-01&max=60&S_ID=-1

Alberta
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=8&dateToStart=2003-01-01&dateToEnd=2006-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=8&dateToStart=2006-01-01&dateToEnd=2009-01-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=8&dateToStart=2009-01-01&dateToEnd=2011-04-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?catID=8&dateToStart=2011-04-01&dateToEnd=2011-05-01&max=60&S_ID=-1
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