I'd assume some of these people are dependent on decisions of others. Like I doubt Gillibrand will run if Hillary does. Maybe the same is true of Rubio and Jeb Bush. Wondering if all the New York Dems and Florida Repubilcans means we'd see bipartisan repeal of the ban on same state tickets.
I don't know about Florida, but my guess is that Gillibrand doesn't run if either Clinton or Cuomo runs. Which means that I don't think Gillibrand is very likely to run.
What is Christie's route to a 2016 presidential campaign? Does he run for reelection and risk a loss, or just retire from the governorship after one term like Romney, sparing himself the need to box himself in politically, as he may have to to position himself for the New Jersey general electorate?
A short time ago, I would have agreed with you that Christie was more likely to run than Rubio, but I'm starting to think it's the other way around. Especially since Rubio is far more likely to be the 2012 VP nominee, which would set him up as the 2016 frontrunner. Of course, I'm also more down on Bush's chances of running than you are, so that further inflates my suspicion that Rubio may run.
Why do you think Gillibrand would pass if Cuomo ran? That doesn't seem as clear to me as if Hillary ran.
If Klobuchar is interested in running, she's playing it very close to the vest. Then again, she's up for re-election next year so that'd make some sense.
Biden seems to be clearly interested, even volunteering to donors unprompted, "Keep me in mind for 2016". But I do think if Hillary were to run, he might decide it's pointless to compete with her (despite the usual "right of way" going to the VP). I think even Cuomo might have second thoughts if Hillary got in, both because of her strength and because of loyalty to the Clintons, but that it probably wouldn't be enough to deter him.
I have only one connection to someone in DC and he seems to feel the CW is that Warner will run in 16, but I have no clue how reliable that is. And of course, he was expected to run in 08 too.
Another name to add to the mix is Hickenlooper who I think is a somewhat likely candidate.
Rubio is the favorite to be running mate for Perry or Romney and as you suggest, if he were, his 2016 buzz would start immediately and his status would be elevated enough that he wouldn't be expected to defer to Bush's decision. I'd put him at almost 100% to run if he's the losing 2012 VP nominee, unless maybe he's a true disaster. If he's not the running mate, I think a Bush run could maybe keep him out and though he hasn't been quite as blunt as Biden, Bush has been direct that 2016 is on the table for himself. If he wants to be president, it's clearly his best chance assuming Obama wins next year.
I do think Christie will run for re-election. Because of NJ's off-year timing, he'd have to announce in 2013 or even 2012 that he's not running for a second term which amounts to an announcement of a 2016 pres. run that seems way too early for his style. Christie hasn't shied away from boxing himself in: his defense of a Muslim judge, for example. And though he'd risk a 2013 loss that could hurt a 2016 run, he doesn't seem risk averse. And given Christie's popularity with the pundits, I wouldn't even completely rule out a 2016 run after a 2013 loss. I would have ranked him even higher but I think there's an underrated chance that he's just not interested in being president or that he doesn't want to go through the vetting required of national candidates.
Can't see what would keep Jindal from running. Maybe if he runs unofficially starting in 2013 and finds himself headed for a Pawlenty path?
I figure Rand Paul will run. Also, in a hard-fought Romney-Perry nomination battle, I'd say there's a decent chance the runner-up runs again in 2016 if Obama is re-elected and the runner-up's supporters play "I told ya so." You might think Romney would give up if Perry wins but he may be obsessed enough to keep trying, who knows?
