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  any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the
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Author Topic: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the  (Read 5902 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: August 30, 2011, 02:37:24 pm »
« edited: August 30, 2011, 02:39:23 pm by Phil Burton Revivalist »

political complexion, population, ethnicity etc would be today? I just did the 80s districts in Arizona on DRA.





I must have f'ed up with the linking code for the statewide map. I'll be back with more later.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2011, 03:03:02 pm »

can you do NYC also?
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2011, 03:08:42 pm »

     It would be hilarious to do an old Michigan map to see how underpopulated the Detroit districts would be today.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2011, 12:06:15 am »

here are the information on the 1980s Arizona districts

1st District Population 1,449,216; 62.3% White; 54.5% McCain
2nd District Population 951,344; 60.1% Hispanic; 61.7% Obama
3rd District Population 1,606,572; 61% White; 56.9% McCain
4th District Population 1,176,659 67.9% White; 56.7% McCain
5th District Population 1,208,226 62.6% White; 53.1% McCain
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2011, 12:15:30 am »



Here is San Diego in the 1980s. The 43rd district at the time extended into orange county so I haven't finished it quite yet

41st District Population 816,431; 60.8% White; 60.2% Obama
44th District Population 810,895; 53.1% Hispanic; 67% Obama
45th District Population 835,241; 49.7% White, 38.2% Hispanic, 4.5% Asian, 4.2% Black, 2.9% Other, .8% Native; 53.4% McCain
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2011, 12:25:34 am »

Here's NC in the 1990's:



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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2011, 07:27:30 pm »

Here's NC from 1940-1960:



Of course, I'be analyzing it in terms of today's politics.

CD1
50.5/48.8 Obama
53.2/46.8 Democratic
Deviation: -357,547
Butterfield wouldn't live here, which I guess is a good thing, because this seat would be too swingy for him anyway. Given, the region's Democratic history, this would be Lean D. Walter JOnes would actually barely live in this district, but more of his current district is in the 3rd.

CD2
58.9/40.7 Obama
62.5/37.5 Democratic
Deviation: -456,937
Talk about slow population growth! This is by far the least populated district at only 338k people; the next smallest is the 1st, which has almost exactly 100,000 more residents (437k). In any case, this district should be more friendly to Butterfield and he'd actually live here. In terms of registered voters, blacks and white each have exactly 46.6%. Overwhelming Democratic at the state level and almost 60% Obama = Safe D.

CD3
57.7/41.6 McCain
55.1/44.9 Republican
Deviation: -126,805
This where Jones would run, despite living barely outside of the district. Perdue carried all the counties here except for Carteret and Pender. Safe R with Jones, Lean R if open.

CD4
51.7/47.3 Obama
50.1/49.9 Democratic
Deviation: 682,285
No doubt, this district has experienced the most growth. As I expected, very swingy, especially at the state level. The Democratic lean of Wake, Chatham and Vance are almost cancelled out by heavily GOP Randolph and Johnston. This would be a good seat for Bob Etheridge. I'm guessing of the current delegation, Brad Miller would run here; he should win as long as he controls the bleeding in Randoplh and Johnston. The trend would favor Democrats. Slight D rating overall.

CD5
50.3/48.7 McCain
51.3/48.7 Republican
Deviation: -106,138
From a numbers perspective, this is almost a mirror image of the 4th; swingy, but slightly GOP. Every county is trending GOP except for Forsyth and Person. I don't think any of the current Democats or Republicans would want this seat. Coble would be the best guess, but this district would be totally new for him and at 80, I doubt he'd want to seriously campaign in a competitive seat. Foxx would be too conservative/controversial to win here. Still, Slight R.

CD6
63.4/35.8 Obama
61.0/39.0 Democratic
Deviation: 246,301
David Price would probably get this fast-growing, strongly Democratic seat. Republican Alamance is easily outweighed by deeply blue Durham, Orange and Guilford. Safe D.

CD7
50.7/48.5 Obama
53.2/46.8 Democratic
Deviation: 177,039
Putting all of Cumberland county here gives McIntyre an Obama district. He might even have a more liberal challenge, but I don't see him losing here. Safe for McIntyre, Lean/Likely D if open.

CD8
60.3/38.7 McCain
59.8/40.2 Republican
Deviation: 49,139
This would be even worse for Kissell than the just-passed Republican map. I really don't see how he, or any Democrat, could carry this seat. His best option would probably be to carpetbag over to the 10th, since he already represents a chunk of Mecklenburg county and the 10th would be ideologically similar to his current 8th.
Even though Robin Hayes lives one county over in Stanly, this would be a great chance for him to make a comeback.
The shape of this district kinda baffles me. Surely, it can exchange its heavily GOP northern counties(Wilkes, Yadkin, Davie) for nearer ones (like Stanly and Cabarrus) and the overall partisanship of the district wouldn't change, though I'm not sure how that would effect the deviation; still, since every district is made of of whole counties, I expect the margin for population deviation would be relatively high.
In any case, Safe R

CD9
60.7/38.1 McCain
61.2/38.8 Republican
Deviation: -48,421
Basically a string of counties running from the piedmont to the VA border. This would be the best district for Foxx and, numerically, its very close to her current 5th. Safe R.

CD10
54.3/44.8 Obama
50.6/49.4 Democratic
Deviation: 481,915
Quite odd in that Mecklenburg has virtually nothing in common with the other counties. At 63% white, I doubt Watt could win here and he could have been too liberal to win here in 2010.Conversely, Myrick would be too conservative to win here.  As I said, Kissell's best move would be to carpetbag here since he already has area in Charlotte. Probably Lean D in most years.

CD11
60.8/38.3 McCain
58.7/41.3 Republican
Deviation: -318,562
We could have an interesting primary here between Myrick and McHenry. While McHenry has more area here in his distict, Myrick would have a base in Gastonia and she had Cleveland county in the 1990s. In any case, the winner gets a Safe R+15 district.

CD12
51.0/47.7 McCain
51.8/48.2 Republican
Deviation: -222, 374
A pretty logical district nestled in the southwestern corner of the state. 'Very safe for Shuler.

Overall, a pretty good map for Democrats; it would pretty much be 6-4-2.
In a normal year:
Democrats:1, 2,6,7,10, 12
Republicans: 3,8,9, 11
Tossups: 5,6
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2011, 09:04:27 pm »

I know it is contrary to the purpose of the thread, but could calculate the 1948 and 1960 Presidential results for your map, Miles?

I am curious about something.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2011, 12:58:51 am »

Here's 1960. I'll work on 1948 later.

(colors are based on margins of victory)






All the "swingy" districts broke for Nixon but Kennedy was able to rack up overwhelming margins in the eastern districts to carry the state. 4 of Nixon's 7 districts were within 5 points; by contrast Kennedy's lowest margin was 15 points (in the 4th district).
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2011, 03:33:27 pm »
« Edited: October 13, 2011, 03:50:22 pm by MilesC56 »

Here's 1948:

(map is just percentages, not margins of victory)



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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2011, 04:55:16 pm »
« Edited: October 16, 2011, 03:02:10 pm by Mr.Phips »

No maps, but im working on 1981-1991 Alabama.

AL-01: 60% McCain, 39% Obama
AL-02: 57% McCain, 43% Obama
AL-03: 62% McCain, 37% Obama
AL-05: 62% McCain, 36% Obama
AL-06: 46% McCain, 53% Obama

Couldnt do the 4th and 7th because of split counties.

1981-1991 Georgia:

GA-01: 55% McCain, 44% Obama
GA-02: 55% McCain, 44% Obama
GA-03: 54% McCain, 45% Obama
GA-06: 52% McCain, 47% Obama
GA-07: 59% McCain, 40% Obama
GA-08: 55% McCain, 44% Obama

1981-1991 North Carolina:

NC-01:  52% McCain, 48% Obama
NC-04:  44% McCain, 55% Obama
NC-05:  54% McCain, 45% Obama
NC-06:  48% McCain, 52% Obama
NC-07:  47% McCain, 52% Obama

1981-1991 South Carolina:

SC-01:  49% McCain, 50% Obama
SC-02:  46% McCain, 53% Obama
SC-03:  63% McCain, 35% Obama
SC-04:  60% McCain, 38% Obama
SC-05:  54% McCain, 45% Obama
SC-06:  52% McCain, 47% Obama
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cowboy300
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2011, 07:02:28 pm »

Anyone know a website where old maps are available?
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Miles
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2011, 11:39:58 pm »

Anyone know a website where old maps are available?

No, unfortunately not; there's no "holy grail" of such maps. You kinda have to Google them on a state-by-state basis and see what you can find.

Still, Senator Fuzzleton has done a pretty great job of compiling maps from past elections by Congressional District here on the forum.

Right now, we're helping him find Congressional maps from the 1950's and 1960's.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2011, 09:53:59 pm »

Well, it was what I expected.


I was curious has to how many districts Dewey had won, if any, and as for Nixon whether he won all the western seats or not.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2011, 08:08:15 pm »

Well, it was what I expected.


I was curious has to how many districts Dewey had won, if any, and as for Nixon whether he won all the western seats or not.

Yep, most of Nixon's districts were very close, but he did sweep the western part of the state.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2011, 08:32:23 pm »


I'm sure Ben Erdreich would like to have that district back. In 1992, all the black areas were removed from his district and he was a goner.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2011, 06:59:06 pm »


I'm sure Ben Erdreich would like to have that district back. In 1992, all the black areas were removed from his district and he was a goner.

He would probably be vulnerable to a black primary challenger now, as the district would have a black percentage in the high 40's. 

In 1992, it actually looked as if Erdreich would still win even in the new, heavily Republican district.  He led Bachus in most polls.  Turns out that they were polling mostly his old district.
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2011, 09:34:21 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2011, 09:38:29 pm by JoeyJoeJoe »



Virginia in the 1960s.  The 8th is a little bit overcrowded.  The 8/10 border might be a little off.

Here are the Pres numbers for each of them:

VA-1:  51.8/48.2 Obama
VA-2:  70.0/30.0 Obama
VA-3:  57.1/42.9 Obama
VA-4:  50.2/49.8 Obama
VA-5:  57.4/42.6 McCain
VA-6:  55.2/44.8 McCain
VA-7:  55.0/45.0 McCain
VA-8:  52.2/47.8 Obama
VA-9:  63.5/36.5 McCain
VA-10: 64.7/35.3 Obama
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2011, 02:34:31 am »

Here's North Carolina 2008 by 1968 boundaries, compared to the 1968 election by the same lines. 







It's worthy to note that the old 4th and 9th districts have about 2.5 million people when they're combined.  lol
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2011, 10:51:57 am »

I'd be interested in seeing the 1990's version of WI-4 (actually voted Bush in 2000). I imagine that the 1990's TX-10, UT-2, and MD-2 went for Obama.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2011, 12:38:37 pm »

1860's Wisconsin:



District 1 (Milwaukee, Kenosha, Janesville): 56.9% Obama, 51.2% Republican average. This is the most populous district, with a population of 1,962,019. If Wisconsin had six congressional districts today, more than two of them would be within the confines of this district.

District 2 (Madison): 68.7% Obama, 64.3% Democratic average. Population 628,592.

District 3 (Prairie du Chien, Richland Center): 61.7% Obama, 50.2% Democratic average. This is the least populous district, with a population of 225,214.

District 4 (Fond du Lac, Sheboygan): 56.7% McCain, 68.6% Republican average. Population 524,181.

District 5 (Green Bay): 53.6% Obama, 57.4% Republican average. Population 965,670. This district is the closest to ideal size for six congressional districts, with a deviation of +17,839.

District 6 (La Crosse, Eau Claire, Superior): 55.8% Obama, 54.3% Republican average. Population 1,381,310.

More to come...
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krazen1211
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2011, 01:23:44 pm »

Detroit once had 5 congressmen (and presumably 5 districts mostly within the city) in the 50s.

What are the populations of those 5 districts today? I wonder if there's any under 100k.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2011, 02:24:45 pm »
« Edited: October 28, 2011, 02:59:07 pm by Johannes Overgaard, Antillan MP (SPP-Bronseland) »

1870's Wisconsin



District 1 (Janesville, Kenosha, Waukesha): 50.8% McCain, 62.4% Republican average. Population 1,014,284.

District 2 (Madison): 68.1% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Population 690,568. This is the closest district to ideal population, with a deviation of -20,305.

District 3 (Prairie du Chien, Richland Center): 62.1% Obama, 50.2% Democratic average. Still the least populous district by far, at 163,238.

District 4 (Milwaukee): 60.7% Obama, 54.0% Democratic average. This is the most populous district, at 1,166,017.

District 5 (Fond du Lac, Sheboygan): 50.7% McCain, 64.0% Republican average. Population 387,341.

District 6 (Green Bay, Appleton): 53.7% Obama, 56.8% Republican average. Population 784,983.

District 7 (La Crosse, Eau Claire): 56.7% Obama, 53.5% Republican average. Population 518,195.

District 8 (Superior, Stevens Point): 55.0% Obama, 55.2% Republican average. Population 962,360.

1880ís Wisconsin:



District 1 (Janesville, Kenosha): 55.5% Obama, 54.9% Republican average. Population 708,079.

District 2 (Waukesha, Fond du Lac): 60.6% McCain, 71.1% Republican average. Population 712,170.

District 3 (Madison): 70.9% Obama, 66.2% Democratic average. Population 616,646. This district is closest to the ideal size for nine districts, with a deviation of -15,241.

District 4 (Milwaukee): 67.2% Obama, 61.9% Democratic average. This is the most populous district, at 947,735.

District 5 (Green Bay, Sheboygan): 50.0% Obama (48.6% McCain), 61.3% Republican average. Population 600,896.

District 6 (Appleton, Oshkosh): 54.5% Obama, 55.6% Republican average. Population 480,348.

District 7 (La Crosse, Prairie du Chien): 59.3% Obama, 51.6% Republican average. This is the least populous district, at 312,389.

District 8 (Eau Claire, Superior): 55.4% Obama, 53.7% Republican average. Population 553,584.

District 9 (Stevens Point, Shawano): 54.7% Obama, 56.0% Republican average. Population 755,139. Note that there is only water contiguity between Door County and the rest of the district.
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2011, 12:15:26 pm »

CA CD's circa 1899.  It seems that the bay side of San Francisco was rather densely populated doesn't it?  Smiley

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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2011, 02:54:09 pm »

CA CD's circa 1899.  It seems that the bay side of San Francisco was rather densely populated doesn't it?  Smiley


San Francisco had 1/4 of California's population in 1890.  San Francisco would be entitled to 1.72 representatives, and almost 3/4 of the 5th district.  San Mateo only had 10,000.

In 1890 how much electrical power would you have?  It would be a healthy trek over the mountains to get to the Pacific side.   Consider how unpopulated the coastal side of Marin is now.  San Francisco as a large city was able to eventually populate areas that weren't really viable otherwise (see Lancaster/Palmdale)
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