Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As always, enough attention to deserve its own thread. Results last time were...

Liberals 71 seats (42.2%), Tories 26 seats (31.6%) and NDP 10 seats (16.7%)

I understand that this election is unlikely to be a repeat of that one. Fire away and so on.

[Insula Dei]

How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

All the polls have shown the PC Party ahead, the Liberals in second, and the NDP in third.

While there is some talk about the NDP vaulting into second, the only thing that really matters is this:

Does the PC Party have enough support to form a majority?

My answer is no.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?

Unimportat. During most of the 69 years the Liberals were in power in Ottawa, there was a string of unbroken Conservative governments at Queens Park (Provincially)

[RogueBeaver]

Grits are repeating their federal counterparts' mistake of trying to out-left the NDP, while the NDP dashes for the centre-left. Hudak taking a leaf from the Dewey/Hillary school of electioneering.

My prediction: Hudak wins a smaller majority than Dad has now. Unsure about NDP surge. Harriscare and Raescare will be prominent.

[Holmes]

Ah yes, I'm getting ready to hear all about Rae and Harris in the weeks to come. The Liberal boogieman, however, is still in office. An easier target.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't it going to be a little hard for the Liberals to bring up Rae when Rae is... er... leading the federal Liberals?

[Insula Dei]

How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?

Unimportat. During most of the 69 years the Liberals were in power in Ottawa, there was a string of unbroken Conservative governments at Queens Park (Provincially)

But couldn't a crushing Liberal defeat be interpreted as a firm rejection of the entire Liberal project, and result in the federal party's crisis worsening even more? I'll happily grant you that there isn't a direct corelation between provincial and federal election results, but the election itself might have an impact on the general political atmosphere, or so I'd think.  

[Holmes]

Isn't it going to be a little hard for the Liberals to bring up Rae when Rae is... er... leading the federal Liberals?

Maybe, but do you forget the Progressive Conservatives?

[RogueBeaver]

Only one debate? WTF is up with that?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/adam-radwanski/ontario-should-have-more-than-one-debate-but-it-wont/article2148120/

[DL]

Latest poll says PC - 38%, Libs 31%, NDP 24%

[Holmes]

I wonder if Ford's new waterfront pet projects will be an issue in Toronto. He says he can get private sector funding for it, but who is he fooling? Joke mayor.

[RogueBeaver]

Rae wants to campaign with McGuinty. That'll make a very nice PC attack ad.

[RodPresident]

This election is going to be a Tory Majority or a hung parliament. I don't exclude possibility of NDP winning more seats than Grits, even with a 3rd place in PV due to high voting in urban constituencies.

[MaxQue]

Rae wants to campaign with McGuinty. That'll make a very nice PC attack ad.

I won't complain about it. NDPers hates Rae, too.

[RogueBeaver]

Not so much for his defection as destroying their chances of usurping the Grits.

[Hatman 🍁]

Should be fun. Im going to be getting paid to do some database for the Ottawa Centre campaign. Ive never been paid during a campaign before, and Ive never worked on a winning campaign before (except phoning for Dewar in the summer of 2005)

[lilTommy]

Working on a winning campaign is incredible! I worked on Cheri Di Novo's by-election win and it brought tears to my eyes... especially since it got so nasty.
I live in Tor-Danforth so my last couple have all been winning, you end up (if you do the old door to door) running into a lot of generally supporters who like to talk, and ask questions. Its also been easier to sway liberals here.
But I've worked on my fair share of losing ones (Peterborough 03, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry 99) and they can be trying for sure.
In October i plan on spreading my time around all the DT riding's, but especially in Davenport and YSW since we can almost taste those.
Lets hope the old adage "Liberal support is a wile wide and an inch deep" rings true, that could leave many riding's up for grabs.
The federal election (i hope) taught the party where we should be targeting our resources for strategic wins (North, TO, urban core riding's like OttC, Windsor W, and some rural riding's mostly in SWontario)
Liberals are desperate and the Tories are going to run a Ford Tax-saver campaign... I like the NDP's stance at staying positive and presenting policy, this is going to be our best chance election.
The three parties were on CP24 LeDrew last night... only caught the last 5 mins... but Gilles Bisson(NDP), Elizabeth Witmer(PC) and Greg Sorbara(LIB) were on... anyone catch?

[lilTommy]

Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%

[Hash]

Even winning on a losing campaign is cool, though election night is usually depressing. It's so fun going out there and doing door to door and meeting so many people. Thankfully here everybody's quite nice and some are happy to talk to you (only a handful politely tell you to go away and an teeny minority shut the door in your face).

[You kip if you want to...]

Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%

So it's gonna be a three-way race. This won't be good for McGuinty once the voters catch on...

[lilTommy]

Even winning on a losing campaign is cool, though election night is usually depressing. It's so fun going out there and doing door to door and meeting so many people. Thankfully here everybody's quite nice and some are happy to talk to you (only a handful politely tell you to go away and an teeny minority shut the door in your face).

Where is "here" for you?
Even losing campaigns i had a great time, their more like a family gathering and you get to be more "liberal" with the drinks
the first campaign i worked in SDG in 99... i got spat on at the door... old rural eastern ontario wasn't (and to some degree still is) is not NDP friendly

[Hatman 🍁]

Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%

Interesting how the Toronto Star poll said it was a 3 way race with the NDP further behind, while the National Post had the NDP doing better, but completely ignores them in the headline and says it's not a 3 way race yet. (although, those numbers are suggest otherwise)

[Holmes]

First of all,

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%

Second of all, maybe more of the left-leaning electorate isn't seeing the Liberals as the only viable alternative to the Progressive Conservatives anymore, and some are switching to NDP. Or maybe that whole process is already done, and the NDP numbers will regress or stabilize, with the PC and Liberal numbers fluctuating more. Who knows? Should be an exciting few weeks, anyway!

[Hatman 🍁]

Expect a new projection this evening based on the new poll.