Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hatman 🍁]

Huh. I wasn't aware EKOS was doing a poll.

Anyways, their regionals are more obviously sorted by area codes. "Northeastern and Central Ontario" being a big giveaway for the 705. Oddly enough, they have the NDP winning that region which means that Northeastern Ontario is going enmasse to the NDP while getting respectable numbers in the Tory hinterland that is the southern 705. They also have the 807 as a separate category (Northwestern Ontario), which has a really small sample size, as it's a small area code. The Tories are winning there, and I am starting to think the Tories probably have the lead in Kenora-Rainy River.

[Holmes]

lol McGuinty. First line of the debate, "well, Canada's doing... well... Ontario is doing well, as well..."

Why is it just McGuiny vs. Hudak? Why aren't they letting Horwath into the fray? Free for all, come on!

[Holmes]

Horwath must speak up. She's letting McGuinty talk all over her. Cut him off, go for the throat!

Horwath's "I don't think you even know where Duberville is", ha! That was good. Also Hudak's "my daughter can put any three letter magnets on the fridge and it would stand for another government agency" was also funny.

I find Horwath and McGuinty feel very real, compared to Hudak who seems to be sticking to the talking points... not too confrontational, only unless it's a scripted confrontation.

Fourth question was stupid... "this election has ignored the big issues, blah blah, why are you afraid to speak up and tackle the big issues?" Um, ok.

Horwath calling Bob Rae "that guy" to McGuinty. lol.

[Hash]

Hudak's performance can be summarized as follows: "tax grabs"/"hydro bills"/"foreigners"/"taxes". Number one priority for him is health or education? Ha! You clearly don't give a sh**t about education and your plan is to increase student debt, and your party ran healthcare into the ground with nurse lay-offs and hospital closures.

What a pathetic little child. If he gets into power, he'll ruin this province just like his idol Mike Harris did in the 90s.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'd say it's been a painful night for provincial Liberals. McGunity has dropped the ball. What the heck was up with him? Was he ill? Andrea has made a great showing in her first debate. While it's Hudak's first debate too, he, as Leader of the Opposition, was already more well known. I think Hudak did what was expected, while McGuinty came in below expectations. Andrea, however, I think did better than expected, and thus, the way I see it; won the debate.

[Holmes]

Well, debate's over. What did everyone think? Who won? I think McGuinty and Horwath did rather well... Hudak seemed too scripted. When he zinged someone, you can tell it wasn't natural. I felt Horwath started the debate very timidly and let the other two talk all over her, and then she totally turned around and began talking over the other two. McGuinty did well defending himself... I dunno how well it'll work. Horwath and Hudak were ganging up on him a lot. And I felt that Horwath's zingers were too... quick and drew no attention to her. When she said that Hudak must've liked her idea on taking HST off hydro and heating, she was speaking over him, and she said it quickly... kind of lost its effectiveness.

Hudak's performance can be summarized as follows: "tax grabs"/"hydro bills"/"foreigners"/"taxes".

Mmhmm, although I thought Horwath kept saying "cash grab" a bit too much during the first half.

[Hash]

McGuinty and Horwath performed best, yeah. Hudak was a child.

[mileslunn]

My take is McGuinty did okay, but not great.  Not bad enough to ensure defeat, but certainly not good enough to guarantee a win.  He seemed quite optimistic on how well Ontario was doing and I guess a lot will depend on how each individual feels.  It will probably help him with those who agree Ontario is doing well, but make him look out of touch with those who think differently.

Hudak - Was quite strong at the beginning and looked persuasive, but as time passed he seemed a bit too vague and repetitive.  Not enough to hand him victory, but not either a debate to guarantee him defeat.  He did a good but not great job so any impact will probably be minimal.  He also got lucky in some ways that Mike Harris' government was only briefly mentioned a few times as this could have hurt him a lot more if he had defend his record as a Harris cabinet minister.

Howarth - A weak start, but stronger towards the end.  Came across someone who genuinely cared about people which helps and was more specific than Hudak on her plans, but at the same time she interupted a lot and this didn't look good.  Cannot see this being enough to land her in the premier's chair, but not a lousy enough performance either to cause the NDP to fall back to their base support.

I suspect if anything most people will probably say whomever they plan to vote for won the debate.  No one had a stellar performance but no one had a terrible one either.  And no knockout punches.  No memorable lines like Layton's one last federal election about Ignatieff having the worse attendance record in the House of Commons

[adma]

Keep in mind that McGuinty's always been a mediocre debate performer.  (Which in some paradoxical way, might serve his "stay the course" tone well--i.e. better honest mediocrity than overperformance.)

For some reason, Horwath reminded me of a stockier Jennifer Aniston.

[Hash]

CBC's poll in its coveritlive thing shows 42% think McGuinty win, 40% think Horwath won and only 12% think Hudak won. FWIW, of course.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I snapped this pic of McGunity during the debate.

[mileslunn]

CBC's poll in its coveritlive thing shows 42% think McGuinty win, 40% think Horwath won and only 12% think Hudak won. FWIW, of course.

  Was this a poll done by an organization like Ipsos, Nanos, Angus-Reid etc. or was it just one of those that anybody can click on.  If the latter I wouldn't take much stock in it as I am sure one on Sun News or the National Post would have Tim Hudak well ahead.  If a scientific one, then it could be interesting to see the fall out.

[Hash]

CBC's poll in its coveritlive thing shows 42% think McGuinty win, 40% think Horwath won and only 12% think Hudak won. FWIW, of course.

  Was this a poll done by an organization like Ipsos, Nanos, Angus-Reid etc. or was it just one of those that anybody can click on.  If the latter I wouldn't take much stock in it as I am sure one on Sun News or the National Post would have Tim Hudak well ahead.  If a scientific one, then it could be interesting to see the fall out.

Well, obviously it was one of those worthless clicky pollsy thingees and is hopelessly wrong, but still a better indicator than a similar thing on the SUN website. People who follow such stuff on the CBC tend to be more educated than the manchilds who follow such things on the SUN rags website.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Hudak's inability to perform in the clicky polls is telling. I also don't think anything McGuinty will stick by the time voters wake up tomorrow.

[Hatman 🍁]

I missed the debate, as I had to attend my girlfriend's brother's birthday dinner. It was at one of Ottawa's fanciest restaurants where a lot of MPs apparently gather. Senator Pamela Wallin was in the next table over.

[DL]

The post debate poll by Ipsos says 33% thought McGuinty won, 29% picked Horwath and 25% picked Hudak. Horwath vastly exceeded expectations since only 14% expected her to win going in.

[mileslunn]

The post debate poll by Ipsos says 33% thought McGuinty won, 29% picked Horwath and 25% picked Hudak. Horwath vastly exceeded expectations since only 14% expected her to win going in.

Pretty close.  Maybe a slight bounce for Horwarth and maybe hurts Hudak a bit, but really I cannot see this changing the numbers that much.  If anything it only re-enforced people's choices.  Also sounds fairly accurate as I don't think there was either a clear winner or loser.

[Hatman 🍁]

In today's Globe & Mail, they were saying Horwath didn't do well in the Northern Ontario debate, so it looks good that she was able to turn things around.

[DL]

It gets even better! The post debate poll says 67% of viewers had an improved impression of Andrea Horwath after the debate and just 10% were negative - that is off the chart! and even higher then what Layton got on that question after he aced the leaders debate in April!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5350

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It gets even better! The post debate poll says 67% of viewers had an improved impression of Andrea Horwath after the debate and just 10% were negative - that is off the chart! and even higher then what Layton got on that question after he aced the leaders debate in April!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5350

Remember that most people thought that Harper won that debate, at least, for the next week or two. It was only in hindsight that it was clear the impact Layton had made, and I think Andrea has made a similar impact here.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I was bored enough to watched the debate on YouTube, and was incredibly frustrated by Horwath not being aggressive enough in the first half hour or so, but once she got going she did very well. (Although some of her very good one-line comebacks I fear went unnoticed.)

Hudak, as others have said, came off as intensely scripted, and McGuinty performed pretty good, neither poorly or exceptionally, but I hate how much he gesticulates when he talks. Jesus Christ.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I was bored enough to watched the debate on YouTube, and was incredibly frustrated by Horwath not being aggressive enough in the first half hour or so, but once she got going she did very well. (Although some of her very good one-line comebacks I fear went unnoticed.)

Hudak, as others have said, came off as intensely scripted, and McGuinty performed pretty good, neither poorly or exceptionally, but I hate how much he gesticulates when he talks. Jesus Christ.

His advisors told him to do that to attract female voters.

Looking at the polls, maybe it worked.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've decided to vote for the Ontario NDP. The fact that there will likely be a minority, and that the NDP can win my riding, are key in deciding. I don't trust the Liberals to do a damned thing to make my life any different. They don't care about people like me. The Tories meanwhile would make life a lot harder for me because they hate people like me - IE people who think $60,000 is rich; People who are "poor". The NDP meanwhile will actually improve public transit, and in any coalition, I'm hoping they will make things like this conditional for support.

Thus, I've decided to vote NDP, provincially.

Edit
The Liberals have committed to all-day GO, while the NDP has committed to properly funding local service. Combine both and you have, gasp, a real public transit strategy for the first time in decades in this province.

Also. I have voted. I will change my avatar back to it's usual Green on October 7th.

[DL]

What riding are you in?

[Holmes]

York West, with moi. Thanks Teddy. Although I'm voting for Timmins-James Bay, and my ballot should be in the mail any day now.

I found the Northern debate! link. Yesterday's debate is here.

edit: oh, Horwath's French isn't good at all... luckily a lot French-speaking ridings are already in the NDP column so far.