Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hatman 🍁]

I've decided to vote for the Ontario NDP. The fact that there will likely be a minority, and that the NDP can win my riding, are key in deciding. I don't trust the Liberals to do a damned thing to make my life any different. They don't care about people like me. The Tories meanwhile would make life a lot harder for me because they hate people like me - IE people who think $60,000 is rich. People who are "poor". The NDP meanwhile will actually improve public transit, and in any coalition, I'm hoping they will make things like this conditional for support.

Thus, I've decided to vote NDP, provincially.

Wow... welcome back

[Hatman 🍁]

Found some Forum research numbers for the Niagara area: http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3312656

Apparently, the NDP is holding on to Welland, and the Liberals are down in NF and St. Catharines.

Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column: http://www.cjbk.com/LocalNews/Story.aspx?ID=1545478

[lilTommy]

I personally thought Andrea did an amazing job; she came across the most "real" as well as the most folksy, but in a good way. what i mean by that is that she was the most genuine, personal and funny... my favourite moment was when she blurted out when McGuinty was talking about the Toyota plant "My brother works there!" i just about died laughing. She was also the one to present the clearest policy which is definetely what the party needs to do to win over some.
McGunity gave me motion sickness, but more so i found him mildly arrogant and a tad belittling. But he held his own.
Hudak continues to creep me out.

I haven't seen the level of undecides? in the polls are we seeing a high number or is it pretty low? I think Andreas performance might help in winning over some progressive undecideds.

[Hatman 🍁]

I personally thought Andrea did an amazing job; she came across the most "real" as well as the most folksy, but in a good way. what i mean by that is that she was the most genuine, personal and funny... my favourite moment was when she blurted out when McGuinty was talking about the Toyota plant "My brother works there!" i just about died laughing. She was also the one to present the clearest policy which is definetely what the party needs to do to win over some.
McGunity gave me motion sickness, but more so i found him mildly arrogant and a tad belittling. But he held his own.
Hudak continues to creep me out.

I haven't seen the level of undecides? in the polls are we seeing a high number or is it pretty low? I think Andreas performance might help in winning over some progressive undecideds.

Lots of undecideds here.

[Hash]

Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.

In Canada, there must be far more undecided voters than in America because of the abundance of PC-Grit swing voters and NDP-Grit swing voters, correct?

[You kip if you want to...]

Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.

In Canada, there must be far more undecided voters than in America because of the abundance of PC-Grit swing voters and NDP-Grit swing voters, correct?

Some of the wild swings Canada gets say that alone.

[Holmes]

Then I'd say the only way to fix that is a Harris-size budget machete, though phrased somewhat more softly.

Yeah, he'd need to say that very softly, unless he wants to lose a lot of support. It'd almost be as bad as Horwath saying she would implement Rae policies.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.

lol. Now that you can't change your vote, I don't have to worry about angering you to the point of changing it

Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.

It's not quite that high, but yeah. Then again, it makes sense here, because some people can't tell the difference between the Libs and NDP.

[Smid]

Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column

I was thinking about that the other day - since it was so close last election, and since it wasn't in the list of seats within 5%, I thought it highly likely that the NDP had a lead of more than 5% there (since I considered it unlikely that the Liberals had improved their position there, or that the Tories had managed to gain a lead of more than 5%).

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column

I was thinking about that the other day - since it was so close last election, and since it wasn't in the list of seats within 5%, I thought it highly likely that the NDP had a lead of more than 5% there (since I considered it unlikely that the Liberals had improved their position there, or that the Tories had managed to gain a lead of more than 5%).

I did not. I figured much of the NDP vote there is personal for Irene. I guess I was wrong. Only problem is, if L-F went NDP in that poll, it means Ottawa Centre is less likely. (still no word as to what it said).

[lilTommy]

I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.

That strikes me as odd, i understand the Fed and Prov Liberals are two different entities but them seem to have similar policies, why have you never votes for the OLP?

And i think this is exactly the trend your going to see in close ridings, the NDP has a platform that is attracting (small L) Liberals as well as soft Liberals. The OLP has been trying to ride that centre left for a long while now and people are starting to realise its fake.

on CItyTV they had a story on PHP, they had a huge biased take on this, plugging the liberals saying its theres... Cheri talking about the electric rail link as a policy and then the guy saying no ones talking about it. But that poll did say the liberals were leading (I'm sure they only polled voters is High Park and Swansea). But Trinity they say is close... and i met Sarah Thompson and she tried to fear monger me after i identified as a Dipper! my BF had to pull me out of our "discussion"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've only had two chances to vote provincially in Ontario, and in 2007, not only was I a federal Conservative at the time, but John Tory had committed to funding 50% of public transit.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.

[Holmes]

Care to share?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.

The NDP will have 30% of the vote on e-day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Care to share?

NDP pick ups are Algoma-Manitoulin, Timiskaming-Cochrane, London-Fanshawe and Hamilton Mountain while we're losing Kenora-Rainy River. All of those make sense.

Do you have anything in particular you want to know?

Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.

The NDP will have 30% of the vote on e-day.

In Ottawa Centre, or province wide?

[Holmes]

Timmins-James Bay? Interested to see how "close" it is. Also, do they show Libs ahead in the Thunder Bay ridings?

[lilTommy]

All the other targets too! Davenport, York South-Weston, Thunder Bay Superior North, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie, Windsor West, Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

This poll is from before the debate correct?

[Holmes]

The results in Toronto and the GTA are found here. I believe the poll was conducted early last week?

[Hash]

Ottawa-Orleans, Vanier and West-Nepean would all be interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Timmins-James Bay: NDP 39, Cons 37, Libs 13
Thunder Bay Superior North: Libs 34, NDP 33, Cons 28
Thunder Bay-Atikokan: Libs 33, NDP 30, Cons 27
Sudbury: Libs 41, NDP 35, Cons 18
Sault Ste. Marie: Libs 46, NDP 28, Cons 20
Windsor West: Libs 34, NDP 34, Cons 26 (0.4% difference)
Ottawa-Orleans: Cons 46, Libs 39, NDP 12
Ottawa West-Nepean: Cons 43, Libs 34, NDP 16

[Hash]

Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html