Ontario 2011 (6th October)
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Author Topic: Ontario 2011 (6th October)  (Read 82771 times)
Holmes
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« Reply #225 on: September 29, 2011, 07:09:57 PM »

We're so depraved of polling. The federal really spoiled us, I guess.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #226 on: September 29, 2011, 10:31:39 PM »

Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html

  Interesting map.  It looks like almost all of rural Ontario is Tory, but the GTA still largely Liberal.  Sort of like the federal election in 2006 or 2008 in Ontario, thus showing the fallacy of uniform swings.  Not too surprising either as the Ekos poll showed over 80% of Ontarioans planned to vote for the same party they voted for federally. 

My one question is about the riding of Perth-Wellington.  Is their MPP really popular personally as this is a pretty solid Tory riding federally and their MP is a pretty average one and asides from Stratford being a bit more liberal, the riding seems just as conservative as the neighbouring ones on the whole.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #227 on: September 29, 2011, 11:05:12 PM »

Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html

  Interesting map.  It looks like almost all of rural Ontario is Tory, but the GTA still largely Liberal.  Sort of like the federal election in 2006 or 2008 in Ontario, thus showing the fallacy of uniform swings.  Not too surprising either as the Ekos poll showed over 80% of Ontarioans planned to vote for the same party they voted for federally. 

My one question is about the riding of Perth-Wellington.  Is their MPP really popular personally as this is a pretty solid Tory riding federally and their MP is a pretty average one and asides from Stratford being a bit more liberal, the riding seems just as conservative as the neighbouring ones on the whole.

Must be personal popularity.
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DL
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« Reply #228 on: September 29, 2011, 11:14:58 PM »

Interesting poll by the Forum done for the OFL - they seem to have polled about 700 people in each of 9 ridings and found the NDP with solid leads in Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Beaches East York and Trinity-Spadina and also Timmins-James Bay - all ridings that ought to be in the bag for the NDP but where there were some weird results in the big Forum poll for the Star. They say that Sudbury and Thunder Bay-Superior North and Bramalea-Gore-Malton are very close.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2011/09/29/18759706.html
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Smid
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« Reply #229 on: September 29, 2011, 11:36:59 PM »

Interesting poll by the Forum done for the OFL - they seem to have polled about 700 people in each of 9 ridings and found the NDP with solid leads in Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Beaches East York and Trinity-Spadina and also Timmins-James Bay - all ridings that ought to be in the bag for the NDP but where there were some weird results in the big Forum poll for the Star. They say that Sudbury and Thunder Bay-Superior North and Bramalea-Gore-Malton are very close.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2011/09/29/18759706.html

I know that over here they could have used the electoral roll/phone numbers, and dialed a specific random selection of people in particular electorates, although we have compulsory enrolment, so I don't know if that's possible over there.

Regardless, perhaps the first poll was by telephone exchange and the second was based on the electoral roll and therefore that could explain the difference? Although it mentions the same methodology, so probably not...

Could the debates have had this big an impact?
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DL
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« Reply #230 on: September 29, 2011, 11:44:28 PM »

I think that the earlier poll was simply wrong in those particular ridings. That mega poll by Forum had the Tories and Liberals at 35% each and the NDP at 23% - that represents a 7 point drop for the Liberals since 2007 and a 6 point gain for the NDP - it is simply not believable that the NDP could be losing or be anywhere near close to losing seats they won comfortably in 2007 when they the same poll shows a 13 point Liberal to NDP swing!

One thing I do wonder about with this latest Forum poll by the OFL - the earlier poll just gave people party names. Period. This poll of 9 ridings may very well have read people the names of the local candidates - which may make some difference and is probably more accurate given that the local candidates names are what the voter will see on the ballot on e-day!
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adma
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« Reply #231 on: September 30, 2011, 06:42:03 AM »

I think that the earlier poll was simply wrong in those particular ridings. That mega poll by Forum had the Tories and Liberals at 35% each and the NDP at 23% - that represents a 7 point drop for the Liberals since 2007 and a 6 point gain for the NDP - it is simply not believable that the NDP could be losing or be anywhere near close to losing seats they won comfortably in 2007 when they the same poll shows a 13 point Liberal to NDP swing!

Unless we were seeing some mystery comeback for the federal urban-yuppie strategy of "vote strategically: vote Liberal".  Like, being rid of Gerard Kennedy, Maria Minna, etc gives the Grits an alibi to re-plant that seed provincially...
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Holmes
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« Reply #232 on: September 30, 2011, 06:53:16 AM »

It's close in Sudbury and Bramalea-Gore-Malton? Go Loewenberg and Singh! Smiley

Did that OFL poll have the provincial numbers? They polled everyone's second choices, after all.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #233 on: September 30, 2011, 07:09:08 AM »

I think that the earlier poll was simply wrong in those particular ridings. That mega poll by Forum had the Tories and Liberals at 35% each and the NDP at 23% - that represents a 7 point drop for the Liberals since 2007 and a 6 point gain for the NDP - it is simply not believable that the NDP could be losing or be anywhere near close to losing seats they won comfortably in 2007 when they the same poll shows a 13 point Liberal to NDP swing!

Unless we were seeing some mystery comeback for the federal urban-yuppie strategy of "vote strategically: vote Liberal".  Like, being rid of Gerard Kennedy, Maria Minna, etc gives the Grits an alibi to re-plant that seed provincially...

This is exactly what Sarah Thompson tried to do to me in Trinity-Spadina... "we need to win the cities to stop Hudak", they are playing the strategic vote dribble to death in TO, probably the same in every other city in the province too.

Oh i have to mention this;  http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Stormont+Dundas+endorsement+MacDonald+edge/5474435/story.html - the Citizen endorsed the NDP candidate in Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry my hometown riding! i was needless to say surprised. Could this be an indication of a new wave of support in eastern ontario? an area thats pretty dead for the NDP outside Ottawa really?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #234 on: September 30, 2011, 07:10:43 AM »

Cornwall had an NDP MPP about thirty years ago, so who knows.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #235 on: September 30, 2011, 08:33:01 AM »

My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #236 on: September 30, 2011, 08:43:10 AM »

My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.

SHUT the front door... really? from what i recall thats not even a top tier target for the NDP this time, that would be a huge win. Both for the party as a whole but also as a regional win, the party would have a voice for all of Eastern ontario if the NDP picked up both OttC and Kingston.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #237 on: September 30, 2011, 09:06:24 AM »

My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.

Not happening.

No mention of Ottawa Centre in that article, eh? Boy, it's getting depressing.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #238 on: September 30, 2011, 09:45:46 AM »

How many polls have come out, where the full period was post-debate?

I'm expecting the NDP to rise 10 points.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #239 on: September 30, 2011, 09:58:32 AM »

How many polls have come out, where the full period was post-debate?

I'm expecting the NDP to rise 10 points.

That's optimistic, and I'm an optimist! I'd expect the NDP to be around 25-27% but 33-34%!i would be ecstatic if that was the outcome, but if i try and be the realist i could see many undecideds sticking with the Liberals. Those who want change might vote strategic as well (ruralers going Tory and Urbaners (To, London, Windsor,etc) going NDP.
Plus last poll showed that Tories were more likely to go NDP as the Liberal vote was starting to solidify.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #240 on: September 30, 2011, 10:14:25 AM »

My e-day projection is something like:

PC - 34%
Lib - 31%
NDP - 30%
Grn - 5%

With some room for fuzzyness. IE as bad as

PC - 37%
Lib - 31%
NDP - 27%
Grn - 5%

to as good as

NDP - 33%
PC - 32%
Lib - 31%
Grn - 5%


All those options result in a "very" strong Liberal minority, with the only variable being on the word "very"
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lilTommy
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« Reply #241 on: September 30, 2011, 10:25:01 AM »

I have to admit, other than one articule from the CEO of the hospital not happy with Andrea (she handled it well and its more or less flown over with not much notice) its been all positive news all over the place, from the Globe, the Star the CBC even SUN media! (WTF) (ok except that blatant pro-McGuinty "Andrea is Hudak's BFF" articule.
Hmmm i personally think HUdak blew it, so i'd reverse the first one:
Lib - 34%
PC - 31%
NDP - 30%
Green ... 5% is generous at this point (that goes to another point, should the Greens have focused more time/money/energy in Simcoe-Grey getting Mike elected ala Federally?)

So seat count then? based on say 27-33% for the NDP... 20-22 seats?
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Hash
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« Reply #242 on: September 30, 2011, 10:39:44 AM »

I'm a fatalist and eternal pessimist when it comes to Canadian politics, so I have resigned myself into accepting Hudak as the next premier and the upcoming destruction of this province going alongside the ongoing destruction of this country.

Maybe if I'm lucky I'll move to Bilbao in 4-5 years.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #243 on: September 30, 2011, 10:44:32 AM »

I really don't see the NDP getting 30%, but here's hoping.
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DL
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« Reply #244 on: September 30, 2011, 12:44:20 PM »


So seat count then? based on say 27-33% for the NDP... 20-22 seats?

I can assure you that if the NDP actually got high 20s or low 30s in the popular vote - they would get a lot more than 20-22 seats - it would be more like 30 seats.
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Holmes
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« Reply #245 on: September 30, 2011, 12:52:32 PM »

I believe the NDP will sit comfortably around 24% - 26% until election day... good performance in the debate, yes, but not enough people are jumping from the Liberals to NDP, now that McGuinty has a chance. Or maybe we'll all be surprised. Surprises are always good for New Democrats. Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #246 on: September 30, 2011, 12:57:15 PM »

Apparently those new riding polls have the NDP in the lead in Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Sudbury, but still down in Thunder Bay-Superior North.
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Holmes
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« Reply #247 on: September 30, 2011, 01:13:11 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2011, 01:15:57 PM by Holmes »

Thunder Bay - Atikokan


Thunder Bay - Superior North


http://netnewsledger.com/2011/09/30/forum-research-poll-shows-ndp-surge-in-thunder-bay-atikokan/

Sudbury

NDP - 38%
Lib - 37%
PC - 19%
Green - 4%

http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2011/09/30-OFL-polls-liberals-ndp.aspx


If these seats fall to the NDP, Liberals will become the third party in Northern Ontario in the next election.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #248 on: September 30, 2011, 01:25:07 PM »

Holmes! you forgot my favourite one!

Bramalea-Gore-Malton:

Jagmeet Singh NDP: 34.1%
Kuldip Kular Lib: 31.6%
Sanjeev Manji Con: 26.4%
Pauline Thomhan Green: 6%

http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/ontario-2011-election-campaign-3 (sorry couldn't get that pretty graffical representation Tongue)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #249 on: September 30, 2011, 03:44:38 PM »

Gravelle polled over 70% in 2003, fwiw...
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