Ontario 2011 (6th October)
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Author Topic: Ontario 2011 (6th October)  (Read 82760 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #425 on: October 06, 2011, 08:47:58 PM »

If Trinity-Spadina is lost, then that would confirm (and then some) certain observations of Linus's.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #426 on: October 06, 2011, 08:48:35 PM »

Lots of orange in the North though, so the NDP doing well there and province wide there are doing not too bad.  The PCs doing a bit better than some predicted, but not enough to win, but maybe, although not necessarily enough to deny the Liberals.  I will say though Hudak's campaign this time around was similiar to Harper in 2004 so if a minority he could still win in two to three years if he runs a better campaign.  At least if the numbers hold up, he should stay on as leader unless the party's numbers plunge dramatically.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #427 on: October 06, 2011, 08:49:53 PM »

Lots of orange in the North though, so the NDP doing well there and province wide there are doing not too bad.

That was part of his point.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #428 on: October 06, 2011, 08:51:00 PM »

Ottawa Centre = Liberal according to the CBC. Sorry Earl.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #429 on: October 06, 2011, 08:53:48 PM »

NDP hold Kenora-Rainy River
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #430 on: October 06, 2011, 08:57:00 PM »

Essex is looking very good for the NDP.

NDP might not win in Weston.

A quarter of the polls in, in TriSpa and the Liberals still holding on.

Thornhill closer than expected, Libs nipping at the Tories heels.

PC Party will be seatless in the 416
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Holmes
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« Reply #431 on: October 06, 2011, 09:05:00 PM »

If NDP loses in Trinity-Spadina and York-South Weston then blah forever. Especially if those give the Liberals a majority.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #432 on: October 06, 2011, 09:06:07 PM »

NDP fail to gain either Windsor seat. But gain Essex.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #433 on: October 06, 2011, 09:06:11 PM »

It looks like 308 underestimated Tory seat count as they are already ahead if you count just elected forget about leading.  It looks like the prediction of 48 Lib and 41 PC was not too far off, maybe a bit too generous for PCs but fairly close.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #434 on: October 06, 2011, 09:06:56 PM »

McGuinty has just called Rob Ford and Stephen Harper thanking them for their efforts tonight.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #435 on: October 06, 2011, 09:08:07 PM »

Although they bombed federally, I wonder if the Liberals are ahead due to the Condo polls.  Those have grown dramatically so if they are coming in faster than the older parts of the riding that could explain why the NDP is trailing.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #436 on: October 06, 2011, 09:08:40 PM »

The PC Party is not off on vote count but is off in Toronto; in terms of projections.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #437 on: October 06, 2011, 09:09:43 PM »

Although they bombed federally, I wonder if the Liberals are ahead due to the Condo polls.  Those have grown dramatically so if they are coming in faster than the older parts of the riding that could explain why the NDP is trailing.

Right now only a third of polls there are in. Do condo polls tend to come in early?
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Holmes
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« Reply #438 on: October 06, 2011, 09:09:56 PM »

Lots of fails for the NDP tonight, but there are some bright spots. Perhaps Ford getting elected was the worst thing to happen for the NDP for tonight.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #439 on: October 06, 2011, 09:12:31 PM »

Does anyone else notice that so many GTA races were between three candidates of the same ethnic or religious group?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #440 on: October 06, 2011, 09:15:44 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2011, 09:18:30 PM by Sibboleth »

Lots of fails for the NDP tonight, but there are some bright spots. Perhaps Ford getting elected was the worst thing to happen for the NDP for tonight.

In the context of the federal breakthrough, it looks pretty disappointing (even if things break the right way in all the tight races left). In the context of Ontario provincial politics, less so. This result will still be the best since the disaster of the Rae government. Hey, just eight years ago the NDP were down to seven seats and had not made a gain since 1990...
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Holmes
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« Reply #441 on: October 06, 2011, 09:17:58 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2011, 09:20:15 PM by Holmes »

Of course. Like I said, there are bright spots. Looking at the ridings that the NDP won in May or came close, and beforehand never even had a shot (Scarborough-RR, Scarborough SW, B-G-M, to name a few), the NDP has come really close (and is leading in B-G-M). These ridings might have gone NDP if the Liberals hadn't surged in the past week.

And at the same time, some solid federal NDP seats are Liberal holds, too. So it's mixed.


Trinity-Spadina moving towards NDP a bit. And Oshawa must be the biggest fools' gold for the NDP, ever.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #442 on: October 06, 2011, 09:20:04 PM »

Ah, hurry up Toronto!

Anyways, there's a close race of (ahem) Shakespearian proportions in Perth-Wellington.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #443 on: October 06, 2011, 09:21:02 PM »

And Oshawa must be the biggest fools' gold for the NDP, ever.

That town is such a flirt.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #444 on: October 06, 2011, 09:21:40 PM »

Lib - 53
PC - 37
NDP - 17

Still a few undecided races

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Holmes
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« Reply #445 on: October 06, 2011, 09:24:13 PM »

Surprised to see both Thunder Bay ridings stay Liberal. Going against the grain in Northern Ontario.

Will Liberals get >10% in Timmins-James Bay? That brand is dead in my home riding.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #446 on: October 06, 2011, 09:33:54 PM »

We might not know until after the weekend or later as this may come down to recounts.  Either way I think McGuinty has 2 years guaranteed as you only need a few members to abstain to pass any bill.  And even if he gets a majority a few losses in by-elections could drop it to a minority.  I believe in Manitoba in 1988, the NDP got a majority, but due to a few defections on a budget bill, they got defeated in 1990.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #447 on: October 06, 2011, 09:35:08 PM »

We might not know until after the weekend or later as this may come down to recounts.  Either way I think McGuinty has 2 years guaranteed as you only need a few members to abstain to pass any bill.  And even if he gets a majority a few losses in by-elections could drop it to a minority.  I believe in Manitoba in 1988, the NDP got a majority, but due to a few defections on a budget bill, they got defeated in 1990.

Oh, absolutely. This could just be chapter one; a minority government is not always a stable place to be. What be the Ontario law on recounts? Loads of tight races.
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Holmes
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« Reply #448 on: October 06, 2011, 09:35:40 PM »

Bramalea-Gore-Malton is looking good for NDP. Trinity-Spadina, Sudbrury and York South-Weston are real nail bitters.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #449 on: October 06, 2011, 09:35:58 PM »

Pop Vote
Lib - 37.45%
PC - 35.31%
NDP - 22.94%
Grn - 3.03%
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