Ontario 2011 (6th October)
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  Ontario 2011 (6th October)
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Author Topic: Ontario 2011 (6th October)  (Read 82749 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #500 on: October 06, 2011, 11:39:19 PM »

Actually that's there's at least a faint feeling of disappointment over the Ontario NDP's best result since the awful terribleness (and an entirely credible one by pre-1990 standards) is no bad thing. Shows a real shift in mentality and all that; a good result for a third party isn't really what's wanted, even though such a result would have been worth committing murder for just four years ago.

But, more objectively, this isn't a bad base of seats to work out something better from. And some encouraging patterns elsewhere, I think. Especially if the lessons that can be drawn from this campaign (and the big one earlier this year) are actually drawn.

Just have to hope that they don't do something really stupid and ask for cabinet posts.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #501 on: October 06, 2011, 11:40:57 PM »

Finally, Niagara Falls is called for Liberals.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #502 on: October 06, 2011, 11:54:05 PM »

Yay, they did it ! Smiley Screw you Hudak ! Cheesy
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #503 on: October 06, 2011, 11:55:26 PM »

Ok, a lukewarm night for sure. I did tear up on the ride home tonight though. I was the only one brave enough to predict a Liberal victory here, and I was right Sad  Anil Naidoo was such a great guy, but too unknown to voters. He did win the sign war by far, which tells you that Liberals in this riding are too scared to admit it. Today I door knocked a poll with maybe 30 NDP signs, and just 2 Liberal signs. We won it by just 2 votes. Telling, no?

I am really excited about Singh's victory and of course in Essex. Pleasantly surprised about Kenora. Too bad we couldn't win Sudbury, and Thunder Bay-Atitkokan and I'm really surprised we lost York South-Weston.  But, I am really pumped at the fact it's a minority government.  When I did my prediction numbers, I looked a lot at the results of the 2004 federal election in Toronto, where the Liberals did quite well. They won a minority government. Maybe things will play out like they did federally. 2011 Ontario = 2004 Canada? We may have Andrea being Leader of the Opposition in 7 years Smiley

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mileslunn
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« Reply #504 on: October 06, 2011, 11:55:52 PM »

Anybody know how many MPPs went down in defeat and also how many cabinet ministers were defeated.  Also as a side note I believe the NDP and PCs held onto every seat they won last time around.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #505 on: October 07, 2011, 12:05:45 AM »

Anybody know how many MPPs went down in defeat and also how many cabinet ministers were defeated.  Also as a side note I believe the NDP and PCs held onto every seat they won last time around.

I was just going to say that. Very rare that the NDP doesn't lost at least a few seats, even with massive gains. That's why I was expecting at least a loss in Kenora.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #506 on: October 07, 2011, 12:31:32 AM »

4 ministers lost.

Sophia Aggelonitis (Hamilton Mountain, NDP gain), Revenue and Seniors
Leona Dombrowski (Prince Edward-Hastings, PC gain), Education
Carol Mitchell (Huron-Bruce, PC gain), Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs
John Wilkinson (Perth-Wellington, PC gain), Environment.
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Smid
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« Reply #507 on: October 07, 2011, 01:59:07 AM »

There was a swing against the Greens in every single riding, from what I can see.
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Smid
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« Reply #508 on: October 07, 2011, 02:02:25 AM »

2011 Ontario Provincial Election Results
Note - three polls yet to report in Kenora-Rainy River, so things there may change very slightly.

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Smid
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« Reply #509 on: October 07, 2011, 02:32:59 AM »

Seems to me like GTA didn't screw over non conservatives this time like they did in national election.

Much of it has to do with the collapse in the Green vote, is what I'm seeing. Doing swing maps at the moment, but Davenport, which was picked up by the NDP, only had a very slight swing against the Liberals, but a 9 or 10% swing from Greens to NDP.
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Holmes
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« Reply #510 on: October 07, 2011, 06:44:38 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2011, 06:48:25 AM by Holmes »

Liberals were very strong in the GTA. Because of Harper and Ford, of course. It hurt the NDP, but the Conservatives most. They were shut out, but there were some close calls for the NDP in the 416 as well (and a loss in the fertile York South-Weston). Both federally held NDP seats in Scarborough had good showings too, despite everything, so some areas of Scarborough might be becoming receptive to the NDP. Seeing a lot of ridings in Southern Ontario realigning provincially with their federal voting patterns, too.

To say I'm disappointed that the Liberals eeked it out in Sudbury is an understatement. And it's disappointing that the Liberals retained both Thunder Bay seats. But I was pleasantly surprised by the NDP's showing, or the PC's lack of showing, in Sault Ste. Marie.

Well, the NDP knows what it needs to do going forward. There's a lot of fertile ridings waiting to be picked up. Time to gouvern.

Question: When is Ontario getting new riding boundaries? Is it after this year's census?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #511 on: October 07, 2011, 07:13:11 AM »

Ontario gets new boundaries when Canada does, which is 2014
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #512 on: October 07, 2011, 07:40:53 AM »

The popular vote was 37.62% to 35.43% which is 2 points away from a tie, meanwhile the Liberals nearly won a Majority on that. If not for Singh, they would have.

In the recent Federal election there was a vote shift, and the Federal Liberals look a heck of a lot more like the provincial Liberals. Look at the light blue ridings near Peterborough, ridings the OLP held two days ago. The Feds did not really manage to do well here compared to the Tories. The new stripped-down Federal Liberals however did comparatively well here. The Federal voting patterns looked more like provincial patterns following the last election. What we saw last night was a strengthening of the vote for the PC Party in rural areas, all of em, and now the provincial vote share looks a lot more like the federal share.

I'll need to run some experiments, but my guess is that the vote share of the three parties is now very very close when you compare Provincial to Federal. This has never happened before. This is, however, interesting. The OLP has always been more moderate, and the federal party may need to move in this direction if they want to win 53 seats from Ontario.

More on this later.
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Holmes
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« Reply #513 on: October 07, 2011, 08:09:37 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2011, 08:13:19 AM by Holmes »

Sault Ste. Marie should be purple. CPC and OLP hold it. And Oshawa should be dark blue. Barrie as well.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #514 on: October 07, 2011, 08:23:07 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2011, 08:35:47 AM by Teddy (SoFE) »

Sault Ste. Marie should be purple. CPC and OLP hold it. And Oshawa should be dark blue. Barrie as well.

Crap
And Windsor has errors too.


FIXD


Combined MP and MPPs
C 110
L 68
N 35
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #515 on: October 07, 2011, 10:38:04 AM »

So, yeah - for the Tories: Ottawa West-Nepean not picked up, Eglinton-Lawrence not close, Willowdale not close, Don Valley West really not close (!), Thornhill a bit close for comfort, Oakville not picked up, A-D-F-W not that close (!), London West not close...

And for the NDP, Ottawa Centre not close, Trinity-Spadina alarmingly close, only really dominating in Toronto-Danforth among the other city ridings.

Liberals were very strong in the GTA. Because of Harper and Ford, of course.

I seem to be not really getting through here (except to Al), but this is mainly because of Hudak and Horwath. The ridings in the first group like Harper (and they especially like Jim Flaherty going around to international finance ministers meeting in nice suits going on about how Canada has done well in the recession due to our low debt). They don't like Hudak's folksy anecdotes about how hard life is for everyone in Ontario now, nor his weird "foreign worker" stuff.

The ridings in the second group, meanwhile, really don't like cutting the gas tax and cancelling commuter rail projects. I don't mean to deny that there's areas of good news elsewhere in the province. But when Jack Layton just dominated the manufacturing areas while vocally supporting a cap-and-trade scheme, there's no reason to be in this economic la-la land where you're the party of reducing both usage and cost of traditional fossil fuels at the same time.

Weird pattern, meanwhile, in the old industrial areas, where in the cities the old tradition of the big Liberal boss seems to be still strong but the NDP wins the less urban surrounding area. I definitely wasn't expecting that particular distribution in Essex, the NW or the Niagara.

Anyway, kind of an unstable result there just on the verge of the majority, and some demographics are in flux, so it will be an interesting few years.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #516 on: October 07, 2011, 10:59:51 AM »


Liberals were very strong in the GTA. Because of Harper and Ford, of course.

The ridings in the second group, meanwhile, really don't like cutting the gas tax and cancelling commuter rail projects. I don't mean to deny that there's areas of good news elsewhere in the province. But when Jack Layton just dominated the manufacturing areas while vocally supporting a cap-and-trade scheme, there's no reason to be in this economic la-la land where you're the party of reducing both usage and cost of traditional fossil fuels at the same time.
[/quote]

Not really, i'm chalking it up to good old fashion Liberal fear mongering... and don't say it wasn't cause it at least played a pretty important role. All over the city i had friends who were NDP voters saying they might vote Liberal... Sarah Thompson (i know i wont let this go Tongue ) herself used vote-Liberal-or-Tories-will-win-and-the-end-is-nigh routine on me. In the last days you saw an upswing in the GTA for the Liberals... it was a vote in large part against Hudak, who truely underestimated how socially conservative values only help to elect Liberals in areas that would otherwise be competative for the NDP... The HST gas issue was a not hated, you fail to understand that most condo owners/home owners still have cars. They might use transit often but generally still have cars.

I think in Windsor and Thunder Bay the Union endorsement hurt the NDP especially...Those areas had a) incumbents (except WW), b) cabinet ministers... and in thunder bay the lover Bombardier contract. All 4 ridings had relatively weak NDP candidates too. Hartman can explain Ottawa Centre Tongue

You notice Essex and BGM... both had recently run federally and had done well, name advantage helped.
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Hash
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« Reply #517 on: October 07, 2011, 11:07:33 AM »

A rant from your friendly DRO:

When I ask for a proof of address, you don't need to throw a fit and rant about how you didn't need it in past. Also, a proof of address is NOT you reading out your address to me. Just show me your driver's license, we won't eat it. If we need to take your wallet to see it, don't worry, we won't run off with your credit card and buy an airplane with it.

When you don't have appropriate ID and you need to sign an oath, don't throw a pathetic hissy fit and say 'I WONT VOTE'. The oath isn't asking you to pledge your wealth to my offspring or something.

When I tell you how to vote and how to return it to me, no need to act like a crazy old man and say ญญ'I've voted before!!!'. Fact is, the rules change. And we're asinine about how the ballot needs to be folded. So, listen to me for 5 seconds before voting. It won't ruin your life.

We're human beings, not unresponsive robots. So, smile and be pleasant. Don't be some bitter angry person and treat us like dirt.

Tim Hudak: teh evil furigners and young people are the most pleasant voters. They show their ID or fill out an oath without throwing rants. The old Anglos and Francos are the most likely to be bitter old sh**ts who will complain about everything.

Finally. If you leave with your ballot as a souvenir, then you are the most despicable kind of human being on earth and I wish you a slow, painful death. Very slow and extremely painful.

(What happens when you issued 237 ballots, 235 of which were cast for candidates and one was cancelled? It's not as simple as you think.)
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #518 on: October 07, 2011, 11:14:48 AM »

One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #519 on: October 07, 2011, 11:19:05 AM »

What an election! Shame about the "hat-trick" meme's implosion, though

I hope Mcguinty's victory also douses theories on Canada's supposed rightwards shift. Two currents actually exist: traditional views of immigrants and the triumph of economic issues before all others. People don't notice social legislation as much as they used to, and the same minority trying to re-brand Canadian identity just has a bigger podium.

It'll be interesting to see how Ford's pandering for provincial money affect his Conservative cred. I bet the Sun won't like it one bit.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #520 on: October 07, 2011, 11:23:14 AM »

Anyways, the NDP ran a populist campaign, and mostly won in populist areas. They got hit in Toronto and in Ottawa because of this. The good thing is, there are lots of areas for the NDP to gain next time. Unfortunately, Ottawa Centre wont be one of them. Clearly, Yasir Naqvi is much more popular than he should be.
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« Reply #521 on: October 07, 2011, 11:41:49 AM »

One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

Well, we started late and finished last, but it wasn't because our envelopes weren't labelled and our list not counted. It's rather because we had one idiot voter leave with a ballot, leaving us unbalanced. And we like to have accurate counts Smiley Certainly, however, some polling officials are lazy sh**ts.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #522 on: October 07, 2011, 12:59:13 PM »

One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

Well, we started late and finished last, but it wasn't because our envelopes weren't labelled and our list not counted. It's rather because we had one idiot voter leave with a ballot, leaving us unbalanced. And we like to have accurate counts Smiley Certainly, however, some polling officials are lazy sh**ts.

What happens then, do you have to write up a report? These ladies weren't lazy, they were tedious.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #523 on: October 07, 2011, 02:26:04 PM »

One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

Well, we started late and finished last, but it wasn't because our envelopes weren't labelled and our list not counted. It's rather because we had one idiot voter leave with a ballot, leaving us unbalanced. And we like to have accurate counts Smiley Certainly, however, some polling officials are lazy sh**ts.

What happens then, do you have to write up a report? These ladies weren't lazy, they were tedious.

You need to complete the multi-coloured reporting sheet, recount the ballots a bunch of times to make sure you really didn't leave out any, and if it still doesn't balance, when you bring the stuff back to the office, you go in a special room where some official counts the ballots in front of you to conclude the same thing and change the "0" on "electors who left the polling location with a ballot" line to "1". It's asinine, tedious, boring and extremely frustrating, but it's called the government for a reason.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #524 on: October 07, 2011, 03:19:42 PM »

Oh, complaining about poll workers!

First, they made us vote on the other side of the city, for no reason.

My poll worker was afwul on federal election. There was an huge line for my voting precinct because the poll worker was more often in bathroom than at his desk.

Then, he wasn't finding findig my name on its list, which was ridicolous since I was seeing my name on. I had to explain him where my name was on the list.

After, he was very bad at folding the ballot after we voted. Me and my mother ballots almost opened, which is an obvious problem and a violation of the secrecy of vote.
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