Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Smid]

Expect a new projection this evening based on the new poll.

Good! I was thinking about that on the tram this morning on my way to work, wondering when the next one will be up.

As for campaigns, I think I've probably been on more losing ones than winning ones - I often go to either marginal electorates or electorates where our presence is particularly weak and the party needs members on the ground to assist with the campaign. I've spent many an election day at booths where we might hope to get a third of the vote (bearing in mind we have only two major parties here).

[Smid]

Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?

[Smid]

Great work, mate!

My one thought on it is that in the two Northern Ontario seats you've classed as too close to call, the Greens vote last election were in the order of 5% or 5.5%, so I think that even if the Green vote is flowing to the Liberals, it may not be enough in those Northern ridings to prevent the NDP gaining those two seats. Mind you, I understand that you're always careful to not over-estimate your party's chances.

[Smid]

Probably not likely, but best outcome for the NDP is to finish second, for the Tories to not have a majority, and force the Liberals to decide... Do they prop up the Tories or do they validate the NDP votes? Technically the best result there for the NDP would be for the Liberals to prop up a Tory minority government which would leave them as the real alternative to the Tories.

[Smid]

Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column

I was thinking about that the other day - since it was so close last election, and since it wasn't in the list of seats within 5%, I thought it highly likely that the NDP had a lead of more than 5% there (since I considered it unlikely that the Liberals had improved their position there, or that the Tories had managed to gain a lead of more than 5%).

[Smid]

Interesting poll by the Forum done for the OFL - they seem to have polled about 700 people in each of 9 ridings and found the NDP with solid leads in Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Beaches East York and Trinity-Spadina and also Timmins-James Bay - all ridings that ought to be in the bag for the NDP but where there were some weird results in the big Forum poll for the Star. They say that Sudbury and Thunder Bay-Superior North and Bramalea-Gore-Malton are very close.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2011/09/29/18759706.html

I know that over here they could have used the electoral roll/phone numbers, and dialed a specific random selection of people in particular electorates, although we have compulsory enrolment, so I don't know if that's possible over there.

Regardless, perhaps the first poll was by telephone exchange and the second was based on the electoral roll and therefore that could explain the difference? Although it mentions the same methodology, so probably not...

Could the debates have had this big an impact?

[Smid]

Teddy, here you go:



Bigger version in the gallery (Election Maps - International). There are some I've done also that show the difference between the federal and provincial results, but they're not especially useful because they just show what we already know. There's also a blank one in the blank maps gallery.

[Smid]

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.

[Smid]

The Elections Ontario unofficial results seem to be going to be updated at a separate website: http://www.wemakevotingeasy.ca/

[Smid]

There was a swing against the Greens in every single riding, from what I can see.

[Smid]

2011 Ontario Provincial Election Results
Note - three polls yet to report in Kenora-Rainy River, so things there may change very slightly.

[Smid]

Seems to me like GTA didn't screw over non conservatives this time like they did in national election.

Much of it has to do with the collapse in the Green vote, is what I'm seeing. Doing swing maps at the moment, but Davenport, which was picked up by the NDP, only had a very slight swing against the Liberals, but a 9 or 10% swing from Greens to NDP.

[Smid]

2011 Ontario Provincial Election Map - Liberal Swing



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Map - PC Swing



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Map - NDP Swing



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Map - Greens Swing



As always, bigger versions in the Gallery.

[Smid]

I'm back in Northern Ontario. No one here is happy with the results. But that's expected, Timmins-James Bay seems to have the biggest swing against the Liberals. And they only got <12%.

The Liberal and PC results there seem to have flipped. Big swing against them in Sudbury, too, but they just managed to hang on. I was somewhat surprised by the swings in Thunder Bay. The two seats seem very unlike the rest of Northern Ontario.

[Smid]

The only two seats which swung heavily against the NDP were seats with retiring members.

No green on the Greens map...

[Smid]

2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Liberal Vote



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Progressive Conservative Vote



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - NDP Vote



2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Greens Vote

[Smid]

What Linus said makes sense, plus I dare say there may be a bit of what we call (over here - don't know if the term is used overseas) tree-change retirees (contrasting with seachange retirees). I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.

[Smid]

I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.

This is a contradiction

How is it a contradiction? People don't retire in Canada? Or when they retire, they only ever live in the same area they lived before they retired? If you hadn't noticed, people from New York retire to Florida, these are seachange retirees. Perhaps people retiring to a quiet, rural setting is unique to Australia (or at least does not happen in the US and Canada) but it's certainly no contradiction to expect you to recognise a particular demographic, even if you use a different term to describe them.