Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[MaxQue]

Rae wants to campaign with McGuinty. That'll make a very nice PC attack ad.

I won't complain about it. NDPers hates Rae, too.

[MaxQue]

I wish to say than I don't approve of the "Anybody but Liberals" thinking of Earl, even if I understand his reasons.

[MaxQue]

Isn't he the guy which the Socialist Caucus ran in 2003 federal leadership election?
Who was moronic enough to green-light his candidacy?!

[MaxQue]

Harris-Decima poll with bizarre numbers:

Lib: 40
PC: 29 (!)
NDP: 24
Grn: 6

Does not compute.  I am definitely holding off on making another Ontario prediction for a while.

Well, the numbers are very normal, to me. It is the party labels which are bizarre.

[MaxQue]

The easiest solution would be to just expel him, obviously.

Keep your friends close of you, and your ennemies even closer.
If expelled, he would just create his own party.

[MaxQue]

If McGuinty manages to win again, that would ashaming for PC.

They were leading in 2007, Tory managed to lose it.
If that happen again in 2011, they ought to select a better leader for their own sake. Or taking courses with Federal Conservatives, which are able to win Ontario.

[MaxQue]

I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.

Surprise!
It is the only thing than centrist parties are able to do. Scaring left-wing voters about the right and scaring right-wing voters about the right.

[MaxQue]

2011, realignment year in Canadian politics?

[MaxQue]

Would the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government if necessary? (Sorry I haven't read the entire thread)

It won't be necessary; it's common enough in Ontario for no party to have a majority, and there have been no coalitions yet. A Liberal minority government supported by the NDP is certainly possible, although the Liberals would probably have to finish ahead of the Tories for it to be politically feasible.

Not necessarily, in 1985 the PCs won; yet the NDP and Liberals worked out the "Accord", a rough unofficial support... the NDP would support the Liberals for 2years. That basically last 3years then the Liberals won the next election. I doubt the NDP would enter into anything like that again.

Well, PC was in power since 42 years, so, if the PC had a minority, it was still a mandate for change.

[MaxQue]

I never understood what the problem with HST is.

[MaxQue]

I was checking out Singh's facebook page the other day, and his campaign videos are all shot in the neighbourhoods, and the place looks like suburban hell. Not the kind of place that votes NDP.  So, good news all around.

And yeah, I think the Liberals will probably win Ottawa Centre at this point. It's a lot like those downtown Toronto ridings where the Liberals are getting a bump from people scared of the Tories even though strategic votes make no sense there.

It's not caused by strategic voting. There are, to be sure, low-information voters everywhere who don't understand how ridings work, but there's no reason to think they would have suddenly increased this time around in a few concentrated geographical areas.

It has to do with the fact that in the very same year as Stephen Harper showed very skillfully how to win affluent suburbia and his rural base at the same time, and Jack Layton showed equally skillfully how to win urban centres and traditional industrial workers at the same time, both provincial opposition leaders seem to be ignoring these lessons and campaigning as if they're running in Ohio.

I'll add than McGuinty Liberals seems to be able to manage with competence an electoral campaign, which is a thing than federal Liberals have forgot since a couple of years.

[MaxQue]

Bad crosstab.

[MaxQue]

I know its 0.1% different federally, but one can apply to a judge for a recount beyond that and I suspect most judges would be pretty lenient in this case considering the difference it could make.

In Ontario, there is an automatic recount if the difference is less than 25 votes.
A candidate or an elector can ask a recount, but they have to pay a deposit of 200$, which is refunded if an error is found.

[MaxQue]

The NDP lead in Trinity-Spanida is still growing.

850 votes, now.

[MaxQue]

CBC called Trinity-Spadina for NDP. They now have a 1100 vote lead.

[MaxQue]

I don't any recount happening.

The tightest seat has a lead of 288, right now.

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

[MaxQue]

I don't any recount happening.

The tightest seat has a lead of 288, right now.

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

 Think they might be able to bribe any opposition members to cross the floor as this would give them a majority.  They only need to fine one and I am sure there is at least one or two opportunists in the opposition.

The problem is old MLAs, as we saw in the tight government in New Brunswick.
Some could threaten to go independant if they don't have funding/position/whatever.

Well, I noticed than Perth-Wellington or Nomtherberland-Quinte West would do the job, too. Less probable, since early is usually balanced between PC and Liberals.

[MaxQue]

Strange. The tightest seat has a lead of 440 votes.

No recount, apparently.

[MaxQue]

Kitchener Centre was called for Liberals.

[MaxQue]

Finally, Niagara Falls is called for Liberals.

[MaxQue]

4 ministers lost.

Sophia Aggelonitis (Hamilton Mountain, NDP gain), Revenue and Seniors
Leona Dombrowski (Prince Edward-Hastings, PC gain), Education
Carol Mitchell (Huron-Bruce, PC gain), Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs
John Wilkinson (Perth-Wellington, PC gain), Environment.

[MaxQue]

Oh, complaining about poll workers!

First, they made us vote on the other side of the city, for no reason.

My poll worker was afwul on federal election. There was an huge line for my voting precinct because the poll worker was more often in bathroom than at his desk.

Then, he wasn't finding findig my name on its list, which was ridicolous since I was seeing my name on. I had to explain him where my name was on the list.

After, he was very bad at folding the ballot after we voted. Me and my mother ballots almost opened, which is an obvious problem and a violation of the secrecy of vote.

[MaxQue]

Wait Max, I thought you lived in Québec ?

I'm talking about May federal election.
I live in Outremont (Thomas Mulcair, NDP) and Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou (Romeo Saganash, NDP) (both my MPs are running for NDP leadership.
Provincially, I live in Outremont (Raymond Bachand, angry man, which insult people and mafia enabler, Minister of Finance, PLQ) and Abitibi-Est (Agriculture Minister, PLQ).