Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Holmes]

Ah yes, I'm getting ready to hear all about Rae and Harris in the weeks to come. The Liberal boogieman, however, is still in office. An easier target.

[Holmes]

Isn't it going to be a little hard for the Liberals to bring up Rae when Rae is... er... leading the federal Liberals?

Maybe, but do you forget the Progressive Conservatives?

[Holmes]

I wonder if Ford's new waterfront pet projects will be an issue in Toronto. He says he can get private sector funding for it, but who is he fooling? Joke mayor.

[Holmes]

First of all,

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%

Second of all, maybe more of the left-leaning electorate isn't seeing the Liberals as the only viable alternative to the Progressive Conservatives anymore, and some are switching to NDP. Or maybe that whole process is already done, and the NDP numbers will regress or stabilize, with the PC and Liberal numbers fluctuating more. Who knows? Should be an exciting few weeks, anyway!

[Holmes]

Sure, if you want to kill public transit in the process.

Is that what Conservatives are proposing?

A PC government would certainly help and enable Ford into killing transit in Toronto even more.

[Holmes]

Hey, there was mention of Gilles. Yay.

Not that the NDP has a shot in Thornhill or any surrounding ridings. *shrug*

[Holmes]

Maybe, but Oshawa makes more sense. Labour city and all. Don't see it happening though.

lol@ Liberals at 44% in Northern Ontario. That tickles me. Did they count everything north of Barrie as Northern or something? Still, that would probably give tied PC/NDP numbers. Garbage.

[Holmes]

Tories a distant third

Anything to deny Rocco Rossi! I wanna see him go down in flames, but, I'm sure his race will be rather close.

The poll shows Horwath with the best numbers, so I can't wait until the debate. And screw McGuinty for declining a northern debate. He's done there.

[Holmes]

Not in a million years if it gives the region some autonomy. The region is vast, rich full of resources, but neglected and empty (relative to the south). That's why it's so easy for a government to control the north, and do what it wants with it, with hardly any repercussion. The region is just full of middle-to-low working class families whose jobs revolve around those resources (and even those jobs are being exported), and sh**tty retail or fast-food jobs. So that's why the north usually votes as a block.

Sure, Horwath promised a special Northern Ontario committee in Queen's Park if she's elected, and that's nice, and the NDP is really the only party that cares the most for the region, but they could jump ship to another party at any moment. The fact that the NDP hasn't been in government provincially for so long, or federally ever, really helps them the most in the north.

[Holmes]

Imagine if the NDP leapfrogs over the Liberals in both Ontario AND Newfoundland!

Well, in Newfoundland's case, that would mean 2-3 NDP seats to 1-2 Liberals seats? So not exactly a strong opposition mandate.

(Leger also says 39% Con, 33% NDP, 17% Liberal, and 6% Green federally, with Bloc at 23% in Quebec)

[Holmes]

Maybe it's best for the NDP to finish in the mid-high 20's, with Libs in low 30's and Conservatives in mid 30's. If that leads to a slight Liberal minority with 20 - 22 NDP seats (mostly from the north, and seats they won in May), they can prop up the Liberal government for a few years, and go into the next election strong, focusing on regions they would need to and could win.

[Holmes]

We should remember that, in the eyes of the majority of Canadians, the party with the most seats after the election "won". So any type of agreement in which that party is not the governing one is corruption/unethical/overthrowing the government/whatever. So the only way a Liberal-NDP accord can work is if the Liberals come ahead in terms of seats.

[Holmes]

If anyone has a stream of the Northern Ontario debate from last night, would they please be so kind as to post it?

[Holmes]

Timmins-James Bay

Don't worry too much about this. Timmins-James Bay was fool's gold for Conservatives in the federal ("polls show Greenberg close or ahead"). Spacek is a horrible candidate for Timmins (not too much love for Kapuskasing there, and the Conservative candidate needs to win the city big for a victory), and Bisson has very sold support outside of the city.

[Holmes]

A lot of close races... and Liberals come on top in every one? I'll just wait for the official results. Riding polling is too crazy and unreliable. I'd like to know what they have for Timmins-James Bay though. If it's close between Liberals and NDP, in the garbage it goes.

[Holmes]

lol McGuinty. First line of the debate, "well, Canada's doing... well... Ontario is doing well, as well..."

Why is it just McGuiny vs. Hudak? Why aren't they letting Horwath into the fray? Free for all, come on!

[Holmes]

Horwath must speak up. She's letting McGuinty talk all over her. Cut him off, go for the throat!

Horwath's "I don't think you even know where Duberville is", ha! That was good. Also Hudak's "my daughter can put any three letter magnets on the fridge and it would stand for another government agency" was also funny.

I find Horwath and McGuinty feel very real, compared to Hudak who seems to be sticking to the talking points... not too confrontational, only unless it's a scripted confrontation.

Fourth question was stupid... "this election has ignored the big issues, blah blah, why are you afraid to speak up and tackle the big issues?" Um, ok.

Horwath calling Bob Rae "that guy" to McGuinty. lol.

[Holmes]

Well, debate's over. What did everyone think? Who won? I think McGuinty and Horwath did rather well... Hudak seemed too scripted. When he zinged someone, you can tell it wasn't natural. I felt Horwath started the debate very timidly and let the other two talk all over her, and then she totally turned around and began talking over the other two. McGuinty did well defending himself... I dunno how well it'll work. Horwath and Hudak were ganging up on him a lot. And I felt that Horwath's zingers were too... quick and drew no attention to her. When she said that Hudak must've liked her idea on taking HST off hydro and heating, she was speaking over him, and she said it quickly... kind of lost its effectiveness.

Hudak's performance can be summarized as follows: "tax grabs"/"hydro bills"/"foreigners"/"taxes".

Mmhmm, although I thought Horwath kept saying "cash grab" a bit too much during the first half.

[Holmes]

York West, with moi. Thanks Teddy. Although I'm voting for Timmins-James Bay, and my ballot should be in the mail any day now.

I found the Northern debate! link. Yesterday's debate is here.

edit: oh, Horwath's French isn't good at all... luckily a lot French-speaking ridings are already in the NDP column so far.

[Holmes]

Then I'd say the only way to fix that is a Harris-size budget machete, though phrased somewhat more softly.

Yeah, he'd need to say that very softly, unless he wants to lose a lot of support. It'd almost be as bad as Horwath saying she would implement Rae policies.

[Holmes]

Care to share?

[Holmes]

Timmins-James Bay? Interested to see how "close" it is. Also, do they show Libs ahead in the Thunder Bay ridings?

[Holmes]

The results in Toronto and the GTA are found here. I believe the poll was conducted early last week?

[Holmes]

We're so depraved of polling. The federal really spoiled us, I guess.

[Holmes]

It's close in Sudbury and Bramalea-Gore-Malton? Go Loewenberg and Singh!

Did that OFL poll have the provincial numbers? They polled everyone's second choices, after all.