Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

All the polls have shown the PC Party ahead, the Liberals in second, and the NDP in third.

While there is some talk about the NDP vaulting into second, the only thing that really matters is this:

Does the PC Party have enough support to form a majority?

My answer is no.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?

Unimportat. During most of the 69 years the Liberals were in power in Ottawa, there was a string of unbroken Conservative governments at Queens Park (Provincially)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Remember folks, so long as "Dad" is in second place, every insult against him is one step closer to a Hudak government.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Sure, if you want to kill public transit in the process.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

When I do go and vote for McIdiot, I plan to literally hold my nose.

Either that or, if I'm certain that the Grits will hold on to this riding, I might spoil my ballot.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

6th October??? what is this, Britain?!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Everyone's methodology is suspect unless they can prove it works by using previous elections.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Everyone's methodology is suspect unless they can prove it works by using previous elections.

My past Ontario predictions speak for themselves (last provincial and last 2 federal elections I got a better % of seats correct than electionpredictions.org)

A dog with a pen could beat EP

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I really cant wait for 6th october. I will be doing maths of course to look at the results as they come out. I will also use the lift in my building to get to the lorry so that I can do something else british LOL

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It definitely should be its own province. It gets its own Brier team for pete's sake!

Aye
North of 47... or was it 44? like on Krago's map

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What would be a likely seat distribution if the three parties poll equal shares?

Easy to find out. Go here
http://esm.ubc.ca/forecast.php
and here
http://esm.ubc.ca/ON11/forecast.php
play around by setting the parties, except the NDP, below 1.0 until they all balance (0.4, and 0.53 should do it) Eliminate the greens for good measure by setting them at 0
and you get your answer
Lib - 46
PC - 32
NDP -29

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Actually by reducing the number and not applying any swing you don't get a uniform swing at all.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Actually by reducing the number and not applying any swing you don't get a uniform swing at all.

Sure. It's just following a different rule, but it's still regular.

How so?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1058006
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1057308--horwath-talks-about-possible-kingmaker-role?bn=1

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Also, want to see my ElectoMatic at work?
Go here
http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/#/ontario+2011
Click "Split"

TA DA

The exact same math I use. Except in the ElectoMatic, you don't need to bother adding to 100%, it does that for you autoMatic.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Any sort of NDP "accord" would really need the PC Party to finish slightly ahead in terms of seats. If the Liberals win the seat count, Dalton would probably try to go it on his own, and if the PC Party beats the Liberals by 10 or more, the media would hang the NDP unless it agreed to an outright coalition.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I still say that so long as they are close, even if the PC Party wins the vote and the seat count, that an "accord" will be likely. How close?

Tie? Certainly.
1 seat? Very likely.
2 seats? Still very likely.
3 seats? likely
4 seats? More likely than random chance, it's happened before.
5 seats? I'd peg this closer to random chance
6 seats? That's really as far as I am comfortable saying that it'd happen
7 seats? only if the NDP has 25+ seats, and thus can claim an authority based on that.
8 seats? No. The only way this would work is something like: 31+34+42, which would really be a stretch; unless the NDP topped 30% in the polls as did the Liberals; then maybe.

If the Liberals win by even 1 seat, McGuinty will go for a minority.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Riding polling fails because it is based on telephone exchanges, and ridings cross those. Ridings even cross postal codes, with one code in particular being in Guildwood and Scar Centre. I even argued with a political person on the phone telling them that I KNOW I am in Guildwood, because the rail line is the border, and they trying to tell me the opposite because of my postal code. That is why Parkdale, and the Kitcheners, etc, are showing up wrong. The poll is correct, but placing the voters in the proper riding is not.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

301 has been the standard for polling for some time over here. Dont ask me why. A poll of this size is large enough to put 301 voters in every riding - so I presume it is indeed individual riding based polls. For the reasons I outlined, though, I wouldn't trust the poll to be 100% accurate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'd say it's been a painful night for provincial Liberals. McGunity has dropped the ball. What the heck was up with him? Was he ill? Andrea has made a great showing in her first debate. While it's Hudak's first debate too, he, as Leader of the Opposition, was already more well known. I think Hudak did what was expected, while McGuinty came in below expectations. Andrea, however, I think did better than expected, and thus, the way I see it; won the debate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I snapped this pic of McGunity during the debate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Hudak's inability to perform in the clicky polls is telling. I also don't think anything McGuinty will stick by the time voters wake up tomorrow.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It gets even better! The post debate poll says 67% of viewers had an improved impression of Andrea Horwath after the debate and just 10% were negative - that is off the chart! and even higher then what Layton got on that question after he aced the leaders debate in April!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5350

Remember that most people thought that Harper won that debate, at least, for the next week or two. It was only in hindsight that it was clear the impact Layton had made, and I think Andrea has made a similar impact here.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I was bored enough to watched the debate on YouTube, and was incredibly frustrated by Horwath not being aggressive enough in the first half hour or so, but once she got going she did very well. (Although some of her very good one-line comebacks I fear went unnoticed.)

Hudak, as others have said, came off as intensely scripted, and McGuinty performed pretty good, neither poorly or exceptionally, but I hate how much he gesticulates when he talks. Jesus Christ.

His advisors told him to do that to attract female voters.

Looking at the polls, maybe it worked.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've decided to vote for the Ontario NDP. The fact that there will likely be a minority, and that the NDP can win my riding, are key in deciding. I don't trust the Liberals to do a damned thing to make my life any different. They don't care about people like me. The Tories meanwhile would make life a lot harder for me because they hate people like me - IE people who think $60,000 is rich; People who are "poor". The NDP meanwhile will actually improve public transit, and in any coalition, I'm hoping they will make things like this conditional for support.

Thus, I've decided to vote NDP, provincially.

Edit
The Liberals have committed to all-day GO, while the NDP has committed to properly funding local service. Combine both and you have, gasp, a real public transit strategy for the first time in decades in this province.

Also. I have voted. I will change my avatar back to it's usual Green on October 7th.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.