Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[mileslunn]

What do you guys think the impact will be of McGuinty's $10,000 tax credit for hiring an immigrant.  While one can argue whether it is a good or bad policy, this almost seems like a John Tory moment.  If I were McGuinty I would find a way to get this off the front page ASAP before the Tories can capitalize on it.

[mileslunn]

I think the overall seat projection is not totally out of whack, but I question some of the individual seats.  In the case of the Kitchener ridings, it is probably true that Kitchener-Waterloo is the most Liberal leaning if you had a generic candidate, but I would be quite shocked if they actually picked this up.  I suspect the Liberals would have won this in 2003 and 2007 had Elizabeth Witmer not been candidate.  In addition, I think McGuinty's decision not to attend the Northern Ontario debates will help the NDP win in some of these ridings.  Another aspect is who does the undecided break.  At least federally since 2004, it seems the undecided has generally broken in favour of the governing party which is good news for the Liberals.  By the same token Tory supporters are more firm in their support and more likely to show up on E-day thus much like the federal election, NB election, and Toronto mayoral election it is possible the polls are underestimating Tory support.  It will be interesting to see what the polls after the debates are.  I think considering most want stability, I believe that a majority is more likely than a minority, but which party it will be is tough to say.

[mileslunn]

Interesting how much lower the PCs are provincially than what they got in many of the ridings in the last federal election.  Is this because Tim Hudak is not catching on, or Michael Ignatieff was far more disliked than McGuinty, or perhaps is a just a case of many sticking with the devil they know rather than the one they don't.  Off course we will have to see what the actual results are on election day as most polls going into the final days of the federal election put the federal Tories at 38-41% which is only slightly higher than what the PCs are at now provincially.  No poll after Good Friday put the Tories even within the margin of error of what they actually got in Ontario (44.4%).

[mileslunn]

My take is McGuinty did okay, but not great.  Not bad enough to ensure defeat, but certainly not good enough to guarantee a win.  He seemed quite optimistic on how well Ontario was doing and I guess a lot will depend on how each individual feels.  It will probably help him with those who agree Ontario is doing well, but make him look out of touch with those who think differently.

Hudak - Was quite strong at the beginning and looked persuasive, but as time passed he seemed a bit too vague and repetitive.  Not enough to hand him victory, but not either a debate to guarantee him defeat.  He did a good but not great job so any impact will probably be minimal.  He also got lucky in some ways that Mike Harris' government was only briefly mentioned a few times as this could have hurt him a lot more if he had defend his record as a Harris cabinet minister.

Howarth - A weak start, but stronger towards the end.  Came across someone who genuinely cared about people which helps and was more specific than Hudak on her plans, but at the same time she interupted a lot and this didn't look good.  Cannot see this being enough to land her in the premier's chair, but not a lousy enough performance either to cause the NDP to fall back to their base support.

I suspect if anything most people will probably say whomever they plan to vote for won the debate.  No one had a stellar performance but no one had a terrible one either.  And no knockout punches.  No memorable lines like Layton's one last federal election about Ignatieff having the worse attendance record in the House of Commons

[mileslunn]

CBC's poll in its coveritlive thing shows 42% think McGuinty win, 40% think Horwath won and only 12% think Hudak won. FWIW, of course.

  Was this a poll done by an organization like Ipsos, Nanos, Angus-Reid etc. or was it just one of those that anybody can click on.  If the latter I wouldn't take much stock in it as I am sure one on Sun News or the National Post would have Tim Hudak well ahead.  If a scientific one, then it could be interesting to see the fall out.

[mileslunn]

The post debate poll by Ipsos says 33% thought McGuinty won, 29% picked Horwath and 25% picked Hudak. Horwath vastly exceeded expectations since only 14% expected her to win going in.

Pretty close.  Maybe a slight bounce for Horwarth and maybe hurts Hudak a bit, but really I cannot see this changing the numbers that much.  If anything it only re-enforced people's choices.  Also sounds fairly accurate as I don't think there was either a clear winner or loser.

[mileslunn]

Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html

  Interesting map.  It looks like almost all of rural Ontario is Tory, but the GTA still largely Liberal.  Sort of like the federal election in 2006 or 2008 in Ontario, thus showing the fallacy of uniform swings.  Not too surprising either as the Ekos poll showed over 80% of Ontarioans planned to vote for the same party they voted for federally. 

My one question is about the riding of Perth-Wellington.  Is their MPP really popular personally as this is a pretty solid Tory riding federally and their MP is a pretty average one and asides from Stratford being a bit more liberal, the riding seems just as conservative as the neighbouring ones on the whole.

[mileslunn]

I would also add, there are some who vote on the idea of better go with the devil I know rather than the one I don't.  While this doesn't impact the NDP much, it might explain why some who voted Tory this past May in the federal election will vote for McGuinty.  Also a lot comes down to margins too.  While each party has their areas of strength, a 5% shift for any party results in about 20 seats so that is what makes it tough to predict.  Southern Ontario has a high population density relative to the rest of Canada so you have a whole whack of ridings that are quite similiar and will go the same way.

[mileslunn]

One thing's for certain: unless Hudak wins a majority, Dad will still be premier.

Not necessarily.  In 2006 federally, Martin didn't try to hang on after winning fewer seats.  Now true he would have had to include the Bloc Quebecois, but I think it depends on the closeness too.  If its only a few seats difference, then yes, but if Hudak has 10-15 seats more than McGuinty then no.

[mileslunn]

It comes from a series of Bloomberg-esque micro-regulations. He's banned, among other things: junk food sales in public schools; pit bulls; smoking on patios; displaying cigarettes in stores (in Ontario now you have to ask for the employee to get you cigarettes from behind this weird screen); smoking in cars with children in them (even your own car and your own children). A certain flavour of libertarian-conservative really hates this sort of thing.

  I thought smoking on patios is still legal, at least it was when I moved here in 2006.  As for the cigarette displays, they are provincial laws but every province has passed them now.  I should also note Britain plans to pass similiar ones even with a Conservative government.  Off course I don't personally agree with them, but hardly statist relatively speaking.  I should also note on a site free our beer on facebook, Premier Dad is used often due to the fact he opposes allowing convenience stores to sell alcohol (8 of the 10 provinces prohibit this and the two that do limit it to lower alcoholic beverages not all alcoholic beverages).  I have also heard some of his supporters use it since he is seen as a father like figure.  After all he seems pretty gentle and a nice man, not an aggressive type you see with most politicians, thus somewhat a father like figure.

[mileslunn]

The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.

I think it has more to do with the fact they don't want to undermine the unions in the LCBO.  But this could easily be corrected by limiting it to products that can be sold outside the LCBO (i.e. Beer, coolers, and Ontario wines).  I also suspect a lot from Ottawa are more open to the idea than elsewhere in the province after all most do buy their alcohol at convenience stores just on the Quebec side of the river. 

My point is any group that thinks a law is heavy handed will call the premier, premier Dad, sort of the view he knows better than you or I, much like a father with a child.

Also what other issues in the platform do you have a problem with for curiosity as I don't think there is a single person out there who agrees with anyone party on every single issue.  You vote for the party who you agree with the most.  After all you take 10 different issues and you put ten people in a room and ask each for the opinion on each issue, I doubt a single person would give the same answer to all ten questions.

[mileslunn]

The newspaper endorsements are now in.  The National Post endorsed the PCs as expected, while the Toronto Star endorsed the Liberals.  This is really no surprise as they only endorse NDP if they have a better chance at beating the Tories, while never the Tories.  The Globe and Mail also endorsed the Liberals.  I usually find them the least biased as they have endorsed both the Tories and Liberals equally, after all they endorsed Harper in the last three elections, but the Liberals in 2000 and 2004.  They only endorsed the NDP once during the 1991 BC election so not exactly an NDP friendly paper.  Anyone know of other endorsements as well as endorsements for other provinces?

[mileslunn]

Sun Media endorsed no one.  The Tories ought not like that as they usually are some of the biggest Tory cheerleaders.  Also the Windsor Star who usually endorses the Tories endorsed the Liberals.  Not that this totally matters what it comes to results but always interesting nonetheless.

The Ekos and Nanos poll don't seem to jibe well so hopefully with the next set of polls we can get a better idea which one is more accurate.  As for the NDP falling back, I suspect Hudak and McGuinty's rejection of any coalition may hurt them as few actually believe they can win outright so if they cannot influence either party it kind of defeats the point of voting for them.  Also due to economic turmoil I think many would rather have a majority government than minority government so we can have some stability.  Still we shall see on election night how things turn out.  I think a majority for either party is still possible but they need a strong last minute swing in their favour, more importantly one party needs to pull out in front in the 905 belt and whichever one can do this will be able to win a majority.

[mileslunn]

The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.

Also what other issues in the platform do you have a problem with for curiosity as I don't think there is a single person out there who agrees with anyone party on every single issue.  You vote for the party who you agree with the most.  After all you take 10 different issues and you put ten people in a room and ask each for the opinion on each issue, I doubt a single person would give the same answer to all ten questions.

It's true, convenience stores here have to compete with their Quebec counterparts who can sell liquor. In fact, with the tax difference, many people go to Quebec anyways for booze.

There are other parts of the platform I oppose, but that's one of them. I suppose not wanting to do away with the Catholic school board is another big issue, but it's not been brought up this campaign.

I disagree with the Catholic school position as well.  John Tory was raked rightfully so for his, so it seems hypocritical to have Catholic schools and no other religious schools.  Much of this though is historical as historically the public system was a de facto Protestant school so there was a need for a Catholic system for the minority who were not Protestants.  As for alcohol in convenience stores, I support allowing beer and wine and other low alcoholic beverages (Under 20% alcohol), but not hard liquor (although I have no objection to private stores selling it if they only sell alcoholic beverages).  Much of the reason for lack of change here is the unions want to protect their jobs, you have groups like MADD who have become neo-prohibitionist rather than anti-drunk driving as well as some social conservatives on the right still see alcohol consumption as evil and want to restrict it heavily.  Off course I suspect someone living in Ottawa would more likely favour it than elsewhere since its already done in Quebec.  I am not a member of any party, but I support and oppose elements of all of them.  I support the HST, but oppose McGuinty's green energy plan.  Likewise I find Ontarioans often fearful of change, so it is pretty easy to scare people of any change no matter what the topic is.  Ontarioans and Canadians tend to be rather cautious in general, otherwise stick with what we know rather than what we don't.

[mileslunn]

What's with the disparity with the Greens?

Nanos doesn't prompt ANY party names at all - he asks an open ended question "Which party will you  vote for?" without reading any list of party names. Ekos reads all party names since people have to punch a number on their keypad. Needless to say when you have a party like the Greens who have no campaign, no leader, no money, no ads...but a brand time that has a lot of "social desirability" - if you read it as a choice - you will get a big overestimate for them.

In the federal election the Greens got less than 4% in Ontario and believe me Elizabeth May was getting saturation publicity compared to the no-name Ontario Green leader whose name escapes me. They will get about 2.5% of the vote when the dust settles.

  I suspect Nanos is closer to what the Greens will actually get.  They have been virtually invisible and when that happens usually they don't do to well.

[mileslunn]

I think at this point a Tory majority is pretty much out of the picture.  Minority perhaps, in fact I could see McGuinty winning the popular vote but winning fewer seats as pretty much every poll shows the Liberals with a massive lead in Toronto while the neck and neck or some in cases the Tories even a bit ahead or slightly behind elsewhere thus unlike in the last federal election, there doesn't appear to be any region the Tories are racking up huge margins whereas the Liberals still are in Toronto even if their federal cousins no longer are.  Still I would give the Liberals an edge at this point in terms of seats over the Tories and I a Liberal majority albeit weaker one is still possible.

[mileslunn]

I think with the recent polls it is pretty much a foregone conclusion the Liberals will win the most seats.  It is still possible it will be a Liberal minority although I highly doubt there will be a coalition rather an issue by issue basis.  And the NDP and PCs will probably both win more seats than last time around, although it looks like there is the possiblity of Tim Hudak getting a lower vote percetange than John Tory did which really says a lot about how pathetic a campaign he ran.  He probably will though get a lower share of the popular vote than Ernie Eves did which was not either a particularly good result for the PCs and certainly well below Mike Harris in 1999 or Stephen Harper in 2011 in Ontario which is more the high end for the PCs/Conservatives in Ontario.

[mileslunn]

Projection

LIB 42-58
PC 28-41
NDP 22-27

The PC and Liberal numbers are fairly reasonable although I think the NDP is overestimated.  I highly doubt they will outperform their federal counterparts who got 22 seats.  I agree it will be a good night, but 27 seems way too high.  I must say the most recent Angus-Reid poll just makes predicting harder.  Ipsos, Ekos, and Nanos all show the Liberals with a fairly solid lead but Angus-Reid comes out with the Tories slightly ahead.  Probably a rogue poll, but Angus-Reid does have a fairly good repulation for accuracy as does Nanos, so it will be interesting to see who is right.  Certainly if Ekos messes this one up much like the federal one, I suspect their credibility will be shot.

[mileslunn]

I haven't done a seat by seat analysis, but my guess is Liberals barely squeak out a majority, PCs in the mid to upper 30s and NDP 15-20 seats.

[mileslunn]

Exit polls really only work in those that use proportional representation or FTFP elections where you get uniform swings.  If the swings are not uniform then they can be misleading.  Federally Ipsos usually does a large one but they don't interview people as they exit the station, but rather after they have voted and this is used more to track how certain demographics voted.  For example, their poll showed only 12% of Muslims went Conservative last May, but 54% of Jews did while in 2006 it was only 25% so that would explain why ridings like Thornhill or Mount Royal swung so heavily towards the Conservatives (even though they still didn't win Mount Royal).

Anyways, My guess is by 10:00 PM the networks will have projected a Liberal government, but it won't be until much later that the project it will be a minority or majority.

[mileslunn]

It looks like a Liberal win as I predicted, but it will be close either way.  Majority or minority, it looks like it will be only a few seats off so I think at this point it looks clear McGuinty will be premier for the next 2 years, the question is whether it will be four or not.

[mileslunn]

So far it seems like a strong rural/urban divide, with the Liberals dominating urban Ontario and PC dominating the rural areas.  Also CP24 just projected a Liberal win, but won't say whether a minority and majority.

[mileslunn]

The GTA is still mostly red, but Southern Ontario is mostly blue i.e. much like the Tories federally in 2008 and 2006.  It looks like the rural/urban divide regardless of the result will be strong.

[mileslunn]

I think the Liberals will probably win the popular vote due to the fact urban ridings tend to come in slower than rural, although it will probably by less than 5%, but we shall see.

[mileslunn]

I have a map on CBC of the federal and provincial results side by side and suprisingly very similiar map wise, the biggest difference appears to be in the GTA where the Liberals are dominating unlikely federally including the all important 905 belt.