Ontario 2011 (6th October)

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True, Thornhill is nowhere near a Suburban target but hey, who thunk Bramalea-Gore-Malton would be.

On demographic grounds, B-G-M was more plausible--not unlike the BCNDP's suburban strongholds.  And for whatever reason, Thornhill's long been the rimshot bottom of the barrel among Ontario NDP prospects--if they were to target it, they'd need an Erin Shapero or something.

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Anyone notice that (momentarily, at least) the 2007 poll-by-polls and poll maps on the Elections Ontario site are down?

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Well, it's a more "normal" figure than that 40-29 "did they get the parties reversed?!?" poll.  (And IIRC, did some polls put John Tory similarly close-behind at a similar stage of the 2007 campaign?)

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So the only way a Liberal-NDP accord can work is if the Liberals come ahead in terms of seats.

Or at least, if the seat totals were close enough--the Liberals had 48 to the PCs' 52 in '85, although being ahead in the actual vote totals gave the Grits an added gloss of "moral authority".

[adma]

I'm concerned. How can a 6 point gain only result in 3 more seats. (The article says the NDP is down in Parkdale-High Park, yeah right!).

I'm suspicious of P-HP, too.  However, an only-3-seat pickup *could* be plausible if the gains are largely "bottom-feeding" in little-or-no-hope seats.  (Sort of like 2003, where the NDP lost official party status while gaining share, thanks to dead cat bounces in the 905 and wherever else.)

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Keep in mind that McGuinty's always been a mediocre debate performer.  (Which in some paradoxical way, might serve his "stay the course" tone well--i.e. better honest mediocrity than overperformance.)

For some reason, Horwath reminded me of a stockier Jennifer Aniston.

[adma]

I think that the earlier poll was simply wrong in those particular ridings. That mega poll by Forum had the Tories and Liberals at 35% each and the NDP at 23% - that represents a 7 point drop for the Liberals since 2007 and a 6 point gain for the NDP - it is simply not believable that the NDP could be losing or be anywhere near close to losing seats they won comfortably in 2007 when they the same poll shows a 13 point Liberal to NDP swing!

Unless we were seeing some mystery comeback for the federal urban-yuppie strategy of "vote strategically: vote Liberal".  Like, being rid of Gerard Kennedy, Maria Minna, etc gives the Grits an alibi to re-plant that seed provincially...

[adma]

From glimpsing results, it seems to me like the Libertarians fared better (well, in numbers of 1%+ candidates) than they have for over 20 years--dunno whether it's a "Ron Paul" effect...

[adma]

Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, King City, Whitchurck-Stoufville
Lib - 48.04%
PC - 37.36%
NDP - 10.12%
Grn - 2.43%
Ltn - 1.46%
FP - 0.07%
Oth - 0.53%

That NDP figure seems low. There weren't *that* many under-10% up there, were there?

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Remember: what ought to make even less sense than the Greens in Duff-Cal are (at least until this year's elections) the Greens in Grey-Bruce-OS...

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When it comes to making sense of these Ontario Green voting patterns, it's useful to keep in mind the "Tories with composters" label that's been attached to them...

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Bad news, people--the colour-coded poll-by-poll maps on the Global TV site have been 404'd for the past couple of days http://globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629

[adma]

And unfortunately, the structure of the Global site is such that I haven't figured out how, exactly, to inquire about what's going on (I tried, reflexively, through a programming-feedback page; no word yet)