Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[lilTommy]

Working on a winning campaign is incredible! I worked on Cheri Di Novo's by-election win and it brought tears to my eyes... especially since it got so nasty.
I live in Tor-Danforth so my last couple have all been winning, you end up (if you do the old door to door) running into a lot of generally supporters who like to talk, and ask questions. Its also been easier to sway liberals here.
But I've worked on my fair share of losing ones (Peterborough 03, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry 99) and they can be trying for sure.
In October i plan on spreading my time around all the DT riding's, but especially in Davenport and YSW since we can almost taste those.
Lets hope the old adage "Liberal support is a wile wide and an inch deep" rings true, that could leave many riding's up for grabs.
The federal election (i hope) taught the party where we should be targeting our resources for strategic wins (North, TO, urban core riding's like OttC, Windsor W, and some rural riding's mostly in SWontario)
Liberals are desperate and the Tories are going to run a Ford Tax-saver campaign... I like the NDP's stance at staying positive and presenting policy, this is going to be our best chance election.
The three parties were on CP24 LeDrew last night... only caught the last 5 mins... but Gilles Bisson(NDP), Elizabeth Witmer(PC) and Greg Sorbara(LIB) were on... anyone catch?

[lilTommy]

Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%

[lilTommy]

Even winning on a losing campaign is cool, though election night is usually depressing. It's so fun going out there and doing door to door and meeting so many people. Thankfully here everybody's quite nice and some are happy to talk to you (only a handful politely tell you to go away and an teeny minority shut the door in your face).

Where is "here" for you?
Even losing campaigns i had a great time, their more like a family gathering and you get to be more "liberal" with the drinks
the first campaign i worked in SDG in 99... i got spat on at the door... old rural eastern ontario wasn't (and to some degree still is) is not NDP friendly

[lilTommy]

Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?

Im going to wait for more polls to come in. They will begin to flow in, and I don't have the time to do a projection every day, unfortunately. (I'm not using any computer programs, each riding is done individually)

GAH! so makes sense to have a handfull of polls then eh... reminds me of the "good old days", something to be said about putting all the effort in, usually the results are more accurate? we shall see...

http://www.facebook.com/#!/event.php?eid=278377288845954 - Sorry i could only find the Facebook link but the NDP will launch their campaign in Thunder bay *cough* targets! *cough* from this, the NDP WILL be focusing on the winning over those northern seats they hold federally, and they have a good shot at many of them.

[lilTommy]

I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!

[lilTommy]

... In this case i don't believe 308, I believe McGuinty will still win Ottawa South. His brother held it federally in May after their disaster of a showing so i think the "family" have some personal strength there.

In 95, when the NDP was decimated, Rae still held on to York South.

NOW i could be wrong... In May Ignatieff lost Etobicoke-Lakeshore and in 90, Liberal Premier Peterson lost his London Centre seat so it could happen. I really believe that many seats are going to come down to local candidates and local conditions, especially since there will be so many ridings in play

[lilTommy]

True, Thornhill is nowhere near a Suburban target but hey, who thunk Bramalea-Gore-Malton would be.

Barry is seen to be more into the race for personal reasons and not for party reasons. If you can't push party policy vs your own personal one then you shouldn't be a candidate. by the sounds of it he won due to a SC ally being the president of thornhill. I know both Simon Strelchek (sp) and Barry... both are wanting.

and like the NDP wants... moving on, they introduced their Northern platform...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/horwath-woos-northern-ontario-with-pledge-to-lift-flagging-economy/article2157957/

[lilTommy]

well this makes sense if they polled Ottawa South maybe But this sounds like a fluke to me... in the Globe they even say so!

"“There’s always some possibility that you get a rogue poll,” pollster Bruce Anderson said on Thursday evening. “We haven’t seen this kind of reversal of fortune before now.” "

Still the Liberals are trying to run a rigid campaign *cough a-la-Harper style cough*, they've had good tv ads, but already holes have been blown in their Tuition Grant (i get so mad when they say reduction) and immigrant job grants, its still a tight race

[lilTommy]

There is the recently establishe Socialist Party of Ontario... i think its a Michael Laxer creation? but i honestly think he'd fit in better with that party.

But i do think the SC (socialist Caucus) has a place in the NDP (hell in College i was mildy active in the caucus) i think they bring about ideas, its just maybe the way its done. Its the job of the party to convert far left policies to workable ones.

[lilTommy]

For the NDP, its really going to be a riding by riding fight then...
a) NDP/Tory battle ridings, to pitch the NDP as the alternative to the tories, pushing a similar message that came across in May which worked rather well (so Essex, Oshawa), trying to attract as much of the small and big L Liberal vote.
b) NDP/Liberal battles, to fight the strategic voting anti-hudak/harris message, voting NDP is not wasted and your vote will matter in electing a NewDem (ala May), it will be about the local candidates too; the NDP being the party that will be pushing for a progressive government as 8years of liberal government has proven to be a failure (so YSW, Davenport, OC, WW, The Northern ridings).
c) Three way fights, The battle is going to be very local especially, very candidate oriented... BGM, SSW, SRR (maybe SautSM as well)

With the Liberals up, its a bigger fight a head but the NDP is still strong so this year it dosen't seem like the Strategic voting is working as much as the Liberals would like... they seem to be attacking every NDP announcement with "it will cost jobs..."

[lilTommy]

Regional Breakdowns!!
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5330

LOVE that they broke the "GTA" up, combined that drastically skus the reality of things...

GTA/Hamilton-Niagara (905): Lib 41%, PCs 38% NDP 20%
Toronto (416): Lib 40%, NDP 31% PCs 28%
Central: PC 40%, Lib 35%, NDP 24%, Green 1%
Eastern: PC 46%, Lib 36%, NDP 17%, Green 1%
Southwestern: PC 40%, Lib 34%, NDP 25%
Northern: Lib 44%, NDP 30%, PC 23%, Green 2% - on Rabble they say the sample was 44 people! so take this with a grain of salt (not sure where to find sample sizes)

Its a complete lie! in the "old city of TO" the tories have almost zero chance of winning anywhere... the tories have winnable ridings in the "old burbs" of Etobicoke/NY/Scarborough... and in Scarborough those are mostly now three way races. The same can be said for Windsor and Hamilton, the Tories are just not a factor anymore.

[lilTommy]

The full tables with sample sizes are there as a link on the Ipsos page and they have the sample sizes. 905 does NOT include Hamilton it is just the 905 suburbs of the GTA. Hamilton/Niagara is considered "central"

Ok thanks!... the NDP at 20% in the 905... like Mississauga/Brampton/York/Durham! that gives me even more hope of at least one pickup if the NDP can concentrate (i'm thinking BGM here or Oshawa, but BGM would be a nicer win)

[lilTommy]

A new poll of 1,000 voters in the City of Toronto by Forum says Liberals 39%, NDP 30% and PCs at a catastrophic 24%. I don't know what the popular vote was in Toronto in the '07 ON election but I suspect that this is a pretty major NDP increase.

For the NDP, its double! at OntarioVotes2007 - http://www.cbc.ca/ontariovotes2007/ridings/#toronto

2007 seats  %             2011 Forum   2011 Ipsos-Reid
LIB -  33 - 45.64%         39%                     40%
PC -  7 -  29.85%           24%                     28%
NDP -  4 - 15.43%          30%                     31%
GRN  - 0 - 7.58%

So the clear losers so far in Toronto are indeed the Liberals, who if either poll pans out are 5-6% lower this time around. The tories are also down about the same in Forum, but pretty much unchanged in IR. The NDP has doubled since 2007... i'd say some of that will be increased strength in the 4 they hold but YSW & Davenport look to be wins; SSW & even SRR might be in play with these numbers too.

[lilTommy]

Ahhh sorry, i grabbed the wrong numbers... but i think the message is still out there... Liberals down; NDP up; tories flat.

Sorry, early, coffee

[lilTommy]

I did a slightly crude estimate of the popular vote in Toronto in the federal election and it came out to Liberals 35%, Tories 32% and NDP 29% - so the NDP vote is if anything slightly higher in the provincial polls while the Tory vote is a lot lower and the Liberals somewhat higher. Almost all the seats the federal Tories won in Toronto were won by very narrow margins - so my prediction is that if these Toronto polls are right - The NDP gains two seats for sure and probably a third somewhere for a total of seven in Toronto while the get the other 15 unless the Tories manage to grab one or two max.

I was on Rabble, and i saw these numbers:
Seats: Cons 9, NDP 8, Lib 6
Popular Vote: Lib 35%, Cons 31%, NDP 30%, Green 3%, Others 0%
Polling Divisions: NDP 35%, Lib 33%, Cons 32%, Green 0%

I don't think it changes what you said, 2 solid for the NDP (YSW, Davenport) and another battle, probably SSW, but i'd rather see the NDP win SRR.

[lilTommy]

I don't really care whether NDP or Liberals win this, what worries me is to see the Tories still ahead.

I think Leger showed regional breakdowns right? and in Ontario just like Canada regional votes will decide seats? with these numbers it still looks like there will be no majority in any instance but are we getting a sense of the distribution of seats yet with those two polls?

The also said the NDP wasn't prepared to be the Official Opposition and so far, they've done a pretty darn good job up there.

[lilTommy]

Would the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government if necessary? (Sorry I haven't read the entire thread)

It won't be necessary; it's common enough in Ontario for no party to have a majority, and there have been no coalitions yet. A Liberal minority government supported by the NDP is certainly possible, although the Liberals would probably have to finish ahead of the Tories for it to be politically feasible.

Not necessarily, in 1985 the PCs won; yet the NDP and Liberals worked out the "Accord", a rough unofficial support... the NDP would support the Liberals for 2years. That basically last 3years then the Liberals won the next election. I doubt the NDP would enter into anything like that again.

[lilTommy]

With all the problems with these and other polls (numbers too small to get a real idea, or no reagional breakdowns, etc) they can be used to the advantage of some campaigns.
So they say the NDP is trailing in YSW, PHP (really?) at any rate, that can bolster volunteers; the last thing you want it to be over confident and think you have it in the bag. In Toronto Danforth, i've gotten 3 calls already to volunteer (which i have, and since i already voted might do eday too) so they are not taking a safe riding for granted. I suppose these poor numbers (seats counts really) can be used to bolster our campaigns, get people motivated to work for every riding.
This has also lead to speculation, should we even have this much polling? or polling during an election at all? Look at Manitoba? has there even been a poll since June? would that be better for the parties to just run a campaign and let the chips fall on election day? (ok sorry if you all want to kill me cause i love the polling everyone is doing!)

[lilTommy]

Without polling, the NDP does not form opposition I think.

Huh? can you explain that a little more

[lilTommy]

Just as i talk about gettign ride of polling during elections (which i rather like so i was being devils advocate)...
Two new polls:

Ekos- Lib 34.9%, PC 31.4%, NDP 24.7%, Green 6.3%

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/FG-2011-09-27.pdf

Abacus- PC 37%, Lib 33%, NDP 23%, Green 6%

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Ballot-Ontario-Sept-26-2011.pdf

[lilTommy]

I personally thought Andrea did an amazing job; she came across the most "real" as well as the most folksy, but in a good way. what i mean by that is that she was the most genuine, personal and funny... my favourite moment was when she blurted out when McGuinty was talking about the Toyota plant "My brother works there!" i just about died laughing. She was also the one to present the clearest policy which is definetely what the party needs to do to win over some.
McGunity gave me motion sickness, but more so i found him mildly arrogant and a tad belittling. But he held his own.
Hudak continues to creep me out.

I haven't seen the level of undecides? in the polls are we seeing a high number or is it pretty low? I think Andreas performance might help in winning over some progressive undecideds.

[lilTommy]

I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.

That strikes me as odd, i understand the Fed and Prov Liberals are two different entities but them seem to have similar policies, why have you never votes for the OLP?

And i think this is exactly the trend your going to see in close ridings, the NDP has a platform that is attracting (small L) Liberals as well as soft Liberals. The OLP has been trying to ride that centre left for a long while now and people are starting to realise its fake.

on CItyTV they had a story on PHP, they had a huge biased take on this, plugging the liberals saying its theres... Cheri talking about the electric rail link as a policy and then the guy saying no ones talking about it. But that poll did say the liberals were leading (I'm sure they only polled voters is High Park and Swansea). But Trinity they say is close... and i met Sarah Thompson and she tried to fear monger me after i identified as a Dipper! my BF had to pull me out of our "discussion"

[lilTommy]

All the other targets too! Davenport, York South-Weston, Thunder Bay Superior North, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie, Windsor West, Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

This poll is from before the debate correct?

[lilTommy]

I think that the earlier poll was simply wrong in those particular ridings. That mega poll by Forum had the Tories and Liberals at 35% each and the NDP at 23% - that represents a 7 point drop for the Liberals since 2007 and a 6 point gain for the NDP - it is simply not believable that the NDP could be losing or be anywhere near close to losing seats they won comfortably in 2007 when they the same poll shows a 13 point Liberal to NDP swing!

Unless we were seeing some mystery comeback for the federal urban-yuppie strategy of "vote strategically: vote Liberal".  Like, being rid of Gerard Kennedy, Maria Minna, etc gives the Grits an alibi to re-plant that seed provincially...

This is exactly what Sarah Thompson tried to do to me in Trinity-Spadina... "we need to win the cities to stop Hudak", they are playing the strategic vote dribble to death in TO, probably the same in every other city in the province too.

Oh i have to mention this;  http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Stormont+Dundas+endorsement+MacDonald+edge/5474435/story.html - the Citizen endorsed the NDP candidate in Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry my hometown riding! i was needless to say surprised. Could this be an indication of a new wave of support in eastern ontario? an area thats pretty dead for the NDP outside Ottawa really?

[lilTommy]

My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.

SHUT the front door... really? from what i recall thats not even a top tier target for the NDP this time, that would be a huge win. Both for the party as a whole but also as a regional win, the party would have a voice for all of Eastern ontario if the NDP picked up both OttC and Kingston.