Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As always, enough attention to deserve its own thread. Results last time were...

Liberals 71 seats (42.2%), Tories 26 seats (31.6%) and NDP 10 seats (16.7%)

I understand that this election is unlikely to be a repeat of that one. Fire away and so on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't it going to be a little hard for the Liberals to bring up Rae when Rae is... er... leading the federal Liberals?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The easiest solution would be to just expel him, obviously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.

How shocking that canvassers from a party with 'Liberal' in the title would do such a thing. Shocked, shocked, shocked, I am.

Tell them it's a lie and (if you need to) bring the results of the federal election with you...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trick, of course, is to avoid actually becoming part of the government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A poll with a sample that big is deeply suspicious; which outfit did it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polling is a mugs game; as we saw just a few months ago. But, presumably, these are breakdowns from a massive poll, rather than specific riding polls? If so, then that would make them near useless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cornwall had an NDP MPP about thirty years ago, so who knows.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gravelle polled over 70% in 2003, fwiw...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can I just say that I totally approve of the attempt to turn a corner of Toronto suburbia into a sort of Canadian Southall?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

wtf is a southall

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southall

Place where lots of South Asians live, I guess. Although I don't think Southall was that far ahead of parts of Mississauga or Scarborough on that.

It was a reference to the very special politics of Southall

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Dalton McGuinty nicknamed 'Dad' by the way?

I think it's because he's seen as being paternalistic.

Anyway, here's a picture of him when he was younger:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So Ontario seems set to return to its usual basic pattern? By which I mean very different patterns of support in Federal and Provincial elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling companies often close ranks like this. Remember, they are (first and foremost) companies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember that federally Kenora has an incumbent as well. One that seems to be pretty popular, given his electoral record.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How accurate do you all think the polls are? Obviously not being on the ground I've no feeling for that. I ask because they've moved about so much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exit polls would be pretty useless for Canadian elections, and all over the place. It would be sort of like exit polling for House elections.

No more so than (say) Britain or France.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would have to be very, very large for figures for small minority groups to be worth much, fwiw.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lots of results up, but so early that they're uselessly early.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

wtf Chatham-Kent-Essex? 15/248 so still very early, but not quite lolearlylol early...

Though here's a good one for the latter: NDP lead in Eglinton-Lawrence!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Large parts of Toronto still have hardly anything in, so, caution with individual seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP hold Welland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Trinity-Spadina is lost, then that would confirm (and then some) certain observations of Linus's.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lots of orange in the North though, so the NDP doing well there and province wide there are doing not too bad.

That was part of his point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP hold Kenora-Rainy River