PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Obama in bad shape, still leads all Republicans

[Tender Branson]

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/images/video/2011_pdfs/0901gpPolls.pdf

[NVGonzalez]

These numbers are extremely strange but hilarious.

[J. J.]

Not too strange.  Obama weaken, but not a total disaster.  Probably greater comfort with Romney on the R side.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey and Toomey's "fair/poor" numbers seem way too high, not to mention the amount of people voting "other" in the Presidential match ups. I know F&M are known for having a large number of undecideds in their polls but I don't remember that many people saying that they would vote for a third party candidate.

[pbrower2a]

These numbers are extremely strange but hilarious.

Another EGFP poll/ Apparently, Pennsylvanians are unhappy with all major politicians, but Obama does better than the Governor and two Senators (one from each Party), and beats every conceivable GOP nominee for President.

It's something like what I had for Tennessee. I do not use EGFP polls for approval, but I can draw some conclusions from some of the match-ups.

If there is a new Ross Perot, then that candidate could make things interesting in 2012. 

[TJ in Oregon]

This is another junk poll... the undecideds are 26% and 27% for the two Republicans that may actually get the nomination. I don't know how we can draw anything from that.

[Keystone Phil]

This is another junk poll... the undecideds are 26% and 27% for the two Republicans that may actually get the nomination. I don't know how we can draw anything from that.

To be fair, F&M is known for having very high undecided numbers but, from what I remember, usually correctly predict the winner. F&M certainly isn't "junk poll" material.

[J. J.]

This is another junk poll... the undecideds are 26% and 27% for the two Republicans that may actually get the nomination. I don't know how we can draw anything from that.

It is probably one of the best polls for Pennsylvania.  Some of it is probably that Perry/Romney/Santorum supporters are not on board with the other candidates. 

It will be interesting what Santorum does if he drops out.  One candidate should emerge on top.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is another junk poll... the undecideds are 26% and 27% for the two Republicans that may actually get the nomination. I don't know how we can draw anything from that.

It is probably one of the best polls for Pennsylvania.  Some of it is probably that Perry/Romney/Santorum supporters are not on board with the other candidates. 

It will be interesting what Santorum does if he drops out.  One candidate should emerge on top.

But 36% to 30%!? This isn't Europe. Numbers like that don't win elections.

[J. J.]

This is another junk poll... the undecideds are 26% and 27% for the two Republicans that may actually get the nomination. I don't know how we can draw anything from that.

It is probably one of the best polls for Pennsylvania.  Some of it is probably that Perry/Romney/Santorum supporters are not on board with the other candidates. 

It will be interesting what Santorum does if he drops out.  One candidate should emerge on top.

But 36% to 30%!? This isn't Europe. Numbers like that don't win elections.

Madonna does not push and the opposition vote is divided among several candidates; the primaries serve as a winnowing.  Much of the "other" basically means that the candidate isn't the first choice; it's like "generic Republican."

Right now, my preference is for Romney.  If I was asked Perry or Obama, and given a choice of "other," I'd answer "other."  If it's a choice between Perry and Obama, I'd probably vote for Perry, but he's not my first choice.

Some others, Santorum, Bachman, I really wouldn't know and would answer undecided.  I might end up voting for either, but I'd have to consider it.

2008 Hillary was second choice in the Spring of 2008.  She probably would have jumped up to first choice by the Summer.