KY-PPP: Close presidential race among likely 2011 voters

[Tender Branson]

IMPORTANT NOTE:

"Poll respondents—likely voters in this fall’s gubernatorial election—report having voted for McCain over Obama by only four points, when he actually won by 16.  In that sense, Romney and Perry actually improve on McCain’s victory margin, despite their raw single-digit leads.  But Obama would outperform his 2008 pace in the state against the others, something we're finding in nearly every state.  This is the first state since we started polling Perry in the general election matchups a few weeks ago in which he has almost matched Romney's standing against the president.

In the end, Obama won't win Kentucky--not even close.  Republican voters don't seem too jazzed up by David Williams, so Democrats might have a good year this fall.  But conservatives will be back out in force next year, and Kentucky won't be near the top of any candidate's travel itinerary."



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_0902.pdf

Obama vs. Romney

[Tender Branson]

Basically you should ignore this KY poll and the WV poll of next week, because Democrats are much more likely to turn out this fall then next year.

Therefore the results of these "likely 2011 voter" polls are distorting the real turnout of 2012.

You need to add about 12 points to each margin and you roughly have the current poll margin, using 2008 turnout.

[Tender Branson]

So much also to the claim by Bandit that KY would be close with Rick Perry.

The race would only be close if Obama and Perry would run for KY attorney general this year ...

[Niemeyerite]

It's clear these numbers aren't realistic... but I don't think you have to add 12 points for the GOP nominee... many Beshear democratic voters are going to vote republican next year no matter what.
And I think Obama could beat Palin there. But she won't be the nominee, so Kentucky is SAFE GOP

[Tender Branson]

A quick re-weight of these PPP crosstabs to 2008 and 2004 KY exit poll turnout:

51-37 Romney vs. Obama (2008)
53-35 Romney vs. Obama (2004)

52-38 Perry vs. Obama (2008)
53-36 Perry vs. Obama (2004)

49-40 Bachmann vs. Obama (2008)
50-38 Bachmann vs. Obama (2004)

46-44 Palin vs. Obama (2008)
48-43 Palin vs. Obama (2004)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This kind of puts the kibosh on the GOP's wet dream of Perry automatically winning Kentucky.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

This kind of puts the kibosh on the GOP's wet dream of Perry automatically winning Kentucky.

No it doesn't.

However, it's interesting that Obama is doing this well when he's doing so poorly nationwide. KY still has a reasonably strong Democratic base.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

No it doesn't.

Actually it does. This poll vastly oversampled Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

IMPORTANT NOTE:

"Poll respondents—likely voters in this fall’s gubernatorial election—report having voted for McCain over Obama by only four points, when he actually won by 16.  In that sense, Romney and Perry actually improve on McCain’s victory margin, despite their raw single-digit leads.  But Obama would outperform his 2008 pace in the state against the others, something we're finding in nearly every state.  This is the first state since we started polling Perry in the general election matchups a few weeks ago in which he has almost matched Romney's standing against the president.

In the end, Obama won't win Kentucky--not even close.  Republican voters don't seem too jazzed up by David Williams, so Democrats might have a good year this fall.  But conservatives will be back out in force next year, and Kentucky won't be near the top of any candidate's travel itinerary."



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_0902.pdf

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

[Niemeyerite]

I think you should give Bachmann a tie with Obama.

[DrScholl]

It's all about swing, if Obama is holding close to his 2008 numbers in states like this, it means that the uniform swing isn't shifting a whole lot. In more competitive states, polling is showing him holding narrow leads, which is further indication of the uniform swing not shifting heavily yet.

[Sbane]

I wonder how Kentucky will vote after the Republicans get rid of their Medicare and Social Security.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Kentucky is one of those states which could swing to Obama in 2012 even if it's close, given less of a PUMA factor.

[Sbane]

There was no PUMA factor.......

[King]

It's a shame Palin isn't going to be the nominee.  I would love to see that campaign.  She'd only go down from here.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Palin won't even run. She'd completely destroy herself if she actually jumped into the race, and she knows it.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

There was no PUMA factor.......

I mean by Democrats in the South who only voted for McCain because they were pissed about Clinton losing (and also because he's black)

[Sbane]

There was no PUMA factor.......

I mean by Democrats in the South who only voted for McCain because they were pissed about Clinton losing (and also because he's black)

And I don't think they were a factor. Some of it had to do with the fact that he was black, and also that he was exotic and not a real Muhrican.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

There was no PUMA factor.......

I mean by Democrats in the South who only voted for McCain because they were pissed about Clinton losing (and also because he's black)

And I don't think they were a factor. Some of it had to do with the fact that he was black, and also that he was exotic and not a real Muhrican.

Looking at exit polls, there certainly seem to be a number of voters who would have voted for Hillary but not Obama, even though they voted for Kerry.

[Nichlemn]

Kentucky is one of those states which could swing to Obama in 2012 even if it's close, given less of a PUMA factor.

Do you mean swing as in "Obama loses by a lesser margin" or "Obama wins"? If it's the latter, lol.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Certainly not the latter, just maybe gaining a couple %. Especially in Eastern Kentucky, where he lost counties that literally have never voted Republican.

[pbrower2a]

There was no PUMA factor.......

I mean by Democrats in the South who only voted for McCain because they were pissed about Clinton losing (and also because he's black)

And I don't think they were a factor. Some of it had to do with the fact that he was black, and also that he was exotic and not a real Muhrican.

Political culture matters greatly. A DINO is Governor of Kentucky. A Southern moderate, populist, or conservative Democrat can win the electoral votes of Kentucky (Carter in 1976, Clinton twice) but a d@mnyankee like Kerry or Obama or a Southerner who forgets his roots loses the state except in an electoral blowout that favors the Democrat. President Obama will win Greater Louisville, but lose the rest of this very rural state.

President Obama is the definitive city-slicker of a candidate, and his failure to win certain states reflects perhaps more the rurality of those states.  than anything else except perhaps ethnic polarization. (Thus if white Mississippians voted like white Kentuckians, then President Obama would have won Mississippi). The Southern states that the President won in 2008 are very urban and suburban (Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia). He won Indiana in 2008 by doing extremely well in Indianapolis, South Bend, Gary, and such college towns as Lafayette and Bloomington. Kentucky has Louisville, Lexington, and Covington... and that is it. President Obama has yet to show that he can campaign in rural areas. In 2008 that did not matter.  On 2012 he wins nationally if he can still convince suburbanites that their problems are urban problems again.  Even though I have seen no polls for Indiana I can state confidently that President Obama has a far-better chance of winning Indiana than he has of winning Kentucky because Indiana is much more urban than is Kentucky.


In 2012, race will not matter so much. President Obama is now the most prominent of American politicians. It will be either "what have you done lately"? or "what can you promise credibly?" in 2012.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Kentucky has Louisville, Lexington, and Covington... and that is it.

In 2008, Obama won everything in Kentucky that's actually urban. He even won Newport, Frankfort, Henderson, Maysville, etc. And the urban percentage in Kentucky just passed the rural. Kentucky Republicans have got to be getting pretty worried right about now - if not for 2012, then certainly for 2016.

[Eraserhead]

If Perry is outed (or comes out of the closet voluntarily), Obama should give it a shot. Otherwise, no.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Do Democrats think all Republicans are gay?