Washington Post/ABC News: Perry and Romney ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

Adults:

46-47 Obama vs. Romney
46-46 Obama vs. Perry
50-43 Obama vs. Bachmann
47-42 Obama vs. Huntsman
53-41 Obama vs. Palin

Registered Voters:

45-49 Obama vs. Romney
46-47 Obama vs. Perry
50-44 Obama vs. Bachmann
47-42 Obama vs. Huntsman
53-41 Obama vs. Palin

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Aug. 29 to Sept. 1, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points for the full sample and 5.5 points for leaned Republicans. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1126a22012Election.pdf

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's now up to +0.2% over Obama in RCP's running average of Obama-Romney general election polls.  Perry's -1.6% against Obama.  Not a huge difference:

link

[Eraserhead]

I wouldn't really call those "leads" (especially in Perry's case) but it's probably time to think about getting out of the country anyway.

[King]

Walter Mondale had a 12 point lead on Ronnie in January 1980 Gallup.  The weak challenger has to lead at some point, better it be early and within the MOE.

[J. J.]

Walter Mondale had a 12 point lead on Ronnie in January 1980 Gallup.  The weak challenger has to lead at some point, better it be early and within the MOE.

Since Mondale was not running in 1980, I kind of doubt it.

In January 1984, Reagan was at 52% and 55% on Gallup.

[cavalcade]

Romney's now up to +0.2% over Obama in RCP's running average of Obama-Romney general election polls.  Perry's -1.6% against Obama.  Not a huge difference:

link

That's a fair point, but it's also the difference between a toss-up and a very likely Obama win.

[Keystone Phil]

Walter Mondale had a 12 point lead on Ronnie in January 1980 Gallup. 

I'm chomping at the bit for the Biden vs. [Insert GOP candidate here] 2012 polls!

[King]

Ok I typed 1980 instead of 1984.  Mondale at a lead somewhere around there.  Maybe it was December 1983.  I remember seeing it.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'm sorta surprised to see Huntsman trail Obama.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

I'm sorta surprised to see Huntsman trail Obama.

Nobody knows him.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Langer Research Associates. Now there's a pollster with a track record!

[J. J.]

Ok I typed 1980 instead of 1984.  Mondale at a lead somewhere around there.  Maybe it was December 1983.  I remember seeing it.

Reagan was at 52 and 55 in the two Gallup polls in January, 1984.

[Mr.Phips]

I think the difference between Romney and Perry right now is name recognition. 

[Napoleon]

Palin and Huntsman but not Paul?

[Guderian]

Walter Mondale had a 12 point lead on Ronnie in January 1980 Gallup.  The weak challenger has to lead at some point, better it be early and within the MOE.

This is like Palinista behavior in reverse. Ignore the polls, Carter had 20 points on Reagan in this or that month, OMG Sarah's gunnah win! Number of voters who made up their mind and won't change it is much, much higher now than in early 1980s. So early polling is more predictive than ever.