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November 23, 2017, 09:11:19 pm
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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| | |-+  2012 Senatorial Prediction
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Author Topic: 2012 Senatorial Prediction  (Read 4265 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: February 12, 2012, 03:16:19 pm »

The 2012 Senatorial Predictions are now active.
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Penelope
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2012, 03:32:37 pm »
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Thanks Dave! Though I've noticed that the "Predicted Senate Control" only has the current seats and doesn't display the total numbers for the Senate.
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A Strange Reflection
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2012, 04:22:26 pm »
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Noticed it too.

Anyways, here is my first take, loking principally at pundit rankings. I'm willingfully overestimating uncertainty, so that extreme scenarioes aren't ruled out too early.





All the tossups going D would result in an unchanged 53/47 dem majority. All the tossups going R would result in republicans taking over with 57 seats.
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"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2012, 07:12:37 pm »
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Thanks.

It says that Montana is an open seat though.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2012, 09:28:49 pm »

Thanks Dave! Though I've noticed that the "Predicted Senate Control" only has the current seats and doesn't display the total numbers for the Senate.

Thanks - I needed up update the senate database for 2012 - now updated to include control prediction data.

Enjoy,
Dave
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2012, 09:33:53 pm »

Thanks.

It says that Montana is an open seat though.

Thanks - That was an error - don't know how it snuck in, but now corrected.
Enjoy,
Dave
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2012, 08:54:19 pm »
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nd -dem
fl-dem
in-rep
tx-rep
ca-dem
mn-dem
mo-dem
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