NC-PPP: Obama tied with Perry - leads others

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%

...

Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 46%

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 45%

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 43%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_0909513.pdf

[krazen1211]

Undecideds are heavily Republican and indepedent, white, and conservative.

[DrScholl]

This was a safe Republican state up until 2008, the fact that Romney or Perry can't manage even a very small lead means that's it's now a purple state.

[Devils30]

Also has Perry getting 14% of blacks, a figure that is rather dubious. This was also taken before the social security thing on wednesday night so any effect from that remains to be seen. However, a 3 point or so Perry win in NC likely would get Obama narrowly re-elected as VA, PA were won by Obama by 6,10 more points than NC respectively.

[Heimdal]

This is actually rather bad news for Romney. I think one of the main reasons the Republican establishment is reluctant to support Perry is because Romney is regarded as more electable (even though Mitt hasn’t really won that many elections at all). That might change if more opinion polls shows that Perry can defeat Obama in states that will be important for the GOP come 2012.

[tmthforu94]

This is good news for Republicans. I was starting to have some doubts about North Carolina, but seeing as how a good majority of the undecideds classify themselves as conservative, I'm feeling a bit better about our chances in NC.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Bachmann has a higher approval rate among Democrats than does any other Republican, and a higher favorability among blacks than among whites (!)
Michelle (O)Ba(ch)ma(nn)?

[cavalcade]

Some points:

1) I'm not surprised Perry is doing better, both in terms of favorability and in terms of head-to-head, in the South.  Still, Romney is nearly underwater with McCain voters and is underwater among moderates (though not as much so as Perry), somewhat conservatives, and very conservatives.  Ouch.


2)

This was a safe Republican state up until 2008, the fact that Romney or Perry can't manage even a very small lead means that's it's now a purple state.

This, even if many of the undecideds are going to go Republican next year.


3)

I think one of the main reasons the Republican establishment is reluctant to support Perry is because Romney is regarded as more electable (even though Mitt hasn’t really won that many elections at all). That might change if more opinion polls shows that Perry can defeat Obama in states that will be important for the GOP come 2012.

I suppose, but if electability in North Carolina matters, then Obama has almost certainly won Virginia and that's the ballgame.  Romney's electability argument is that he is better in states which actually could decide the election (right now, those being VA/NH, maybe PA/NV/CO).

[Lief 🗽]

Polling out of North Carolina continues to be delightful.

[Keystone Phil]

Polling out of North Carolina continues to be delightful.

At this rate, even Kansas might be in play, right?

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

This is the first map in which Romney loses a state to President Obama that Rick Perry wins. Of course this comes before the Republican debate in which Perry asserted that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme. Romney has typically been stronger than Perry.

PPP will be polling Missouri specifically and the US generally this weekend...

Missouri and North Carolina were both iffy in 2008, and if either is iffy in 2012 then the Republican nominee is in deep trouble.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

folks, it's all about Obama...if the economy continues to stagnate through Nov 2012, he'll lose NC by >15% to either Perry or Romney.

so, the only important polls at this point are the undercurrents of the economy, and right now they stink.

[Lief 🗽]

Polling out of North Carolina continues to be delightful.

At this rate, even Kansas might be in play, right?

Too early to tell. Be patient.

[J. J.]

folks, it's all about Obama...if the economy continues to stagnate through Nov 2012, he'll lose NC by >15% to either Perry or Romney.

so, the only important polls at this point are the undercurrents of the economy, and right now they stink.

Bingo!

I don't who will win NC, but I know who will lose it.  Obama.

You also have to remember that after a contested primary, conservatives/Republicans will coalesce around the GOP nominee, to an extent.  Bachman would have a shot at carrying the state.

[Miles]

Guys, hate to break it to you, but PPP cooks their NC polls in favor of Democrat candidates.  They did this consistently last year with the Senate race.

Which is why their polls ended up having a narrow GOP bias....

[redcommander]

Polling out of North Carolina continues to be delightful.

At this rate, even Kansas might be in play, right?

It certainly would against Palin or even Perry once the average voter pays attention to what he says.

[Miles]

Guys, hate to break it to you, but PPP cooks their NC polls in favor of Democrat candidates.  They did this consistently last year with the Senate race.

Which is why their polls ended up having a narrow GOP bias....

Learn to read, dillweed.  PPP is a good pollster, you just have to take their NC polls with a grain of salt (until the last one before the election, which is always superb).

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/burr-ahead-by-couple.html

Geez...this is friendly here.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This isn't really new. Before it was Huck who did better in NC then Romney. But it is the only swing state I have seen where this is the case, besides a few instances in MO. In FL, NH, PA, MI, CO, NV, OH, and VA, Romney did better then Huck and so far is doing better then Perry in those that have been polled.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

North Carolina is that close?  That's not good for the GOP.  Even if Romney and Perry start to poll a few points ahead of Obama but still below 50% that is not good for the GOP.  North Carolina needs to be likely R state for the GOP so they can concentrate on Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

North Carolina is that close?  That's not good for the GOP.  Even if Romney and Perry start to poll a few points ahead of Obama but still below 50% that is not good for the GOP.  North Carolina needs to be likely R state for the GOP so they can concentrate on Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada

This.

It's not good news for the Republicans at all.  And after NC was projected on Election Night, I did not see it as a state Obama would hold onto next time around.  I see he's more competitive than I previously thought.

Lean GOP > Toss-Up

[krazen1211]

This is the first map in which Romney loses a state to President Obama that Rick Perry wins. Of course this comes before the Republican debate in which Perry asserted that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme. Romney has typically been stronger than Perry.

Perry asserted that well before this week.

[pbrower2a]

folks, it's all about Obama...if the economy continues to stagnate through Nov 2012, he'll lose NC by >15% to either Perry or Romney.

so, the only important polls at this point are the undercurrents of the economy, and right now they stink.

Bingo!

I don't who will win NC, but I know who will lose it.  Obama.

You also have to remember that after a contested primary, conservatives/Republicans will coalesce around the GOP nominee, to an extent.  Bachman would have a shot at carrying the state.

North Carolina used to be an arch-conservative state, as exemplified in the late Senator Jesse Helms. The state has since drifted into the political center while the GOP has moved far to the Right.   The Republicans are not strong enough in North Carolina as they are in, for example, Kansas, where they can hold the state on their own.  They need to win about half  the independents over or hope for sub-par performance by the Democrats to win a statewide election.  Such is no easy task. Coalescing around the GOP nominee will not be enough. Most Republicans voted for Goldwater in 1964, and most Democrats voted for McGovern in 1972.

That President Obama was ahead, even if only in a statistical tie, with  Mitt Romney near a low point for approval for the President demonstrates that winning North Carolina will not be easy for any Republican. So what if the President does well at things other than achieving his legislative agenda? Nothing says that he will be a weaker campaigner in 2012 than in 2008. The formidable campaign apparatus now in mothballs will be easy to revive. He has shown that he will run against a now-unpopular Congress that must either give him part of his agenda to save its chances of re-election (and rescue his Presidency now) or continue its unpopularity by standing for a recession.

President Obama does not need to win North Carolina to get re-elected. All states that either Gore or Kerry won (the Blue Firewall + IA + NH + NM) will be almost enough, and one of  Florida, Ohio, and Virginia or the pair of Colorado and Nevada will be enough. President Obama wins other states only if he has the election sealed -- he wins Arizona only with the pair of CO and NV in tow, Indiana or Missouri only with OH in tow, North Carolina only with VA, in tow, and Georgia only with FL in tow. North Carolina goes to the President in an election approaching a landslide, if not an outright landslide.

Until the Republican debate at the Reagan Library, Perry was getting stronger than Romney. Your guess is as good as mine on the effect of the "Ponzi scheme" smear of Social Security not only upon Perry, but also Romney.  Maybe it strengthened Romney. You can be sure that if Perry is the nominee, then the "Ponzi scheme" canard will be turned against him.    

[© tweed]

Also has Perry getting 14% of blacks, a figure that is rather dubious.

you realize in a sample n=520 we're talking a difference of between five and ten respondents.

[Brittain33]

This is the first map in which Romney loses a state to President Obama that Rick Perry wins. Of course this comes before the Republican debate in which Perry asserted that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme. Romney has typically been stronger than Perry.

Perry asserted that well before this week.

He had hesitated to reaffirm it until the debate. It was an opportunity for him to revise what he said, but he doubled down.