folks, it's all about Obama...if the economy continues to stagnate through Nov 2012, he'll lose NC by >15% to either Perry or Romney.
so, the only important polls at this point are the undercurrents of the economy, and right now they stink.
Bingo!
I don't who will win NC, but I know who will lose it. Obama.
You also have to remember that after a contested primary, conservatives/Republicans will coalesce around the GOP nominee, to an extent. Bachman would have a shot at carrying the state.
North Carolina used to be an arch-conservative state, as exemplified in the late Senator Jesse Helms. The state has since drifted into the political center while the GOP has moved far to the Right. The Republicans are not strong enough in North Carolina as they are in, for example, Kansas, where they can hold the state on their own. They need to win about half the independents over or hope for sub-par performance by the Democrats to win a statewide election. Such is no easy task. Coalescing around the GOP nominee will not be enough. Most Republicans voted for Goldwater in 1964, and most Democrats voted for McGovern in 1972.
That President Obama was ahead, even if only in a statistical tie, with Mitt Romney near a low point for approval for the President demonstrates that winning North Carolina will not be easy for any Republican. So what if the President does well at things other than achieving his legislative agenda? Nothing says that he will be a weaker campaigner in 2012 than in 2008. The formidable campaign apparatus now in mothballs will be easy to revive. He has shown that he will run against a now-unpopular Congress that must either give him part of his agenda to save its chances of re-election (and rescue his Presidency now) or continue its unpopularity by standing for a recession.
President Obama does not need to win North Carolina to get re-elected. All states that either Gore or Kerry won (the Blue Firewall + IA + NH + NM) will be almost enough, and one of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia or the pair of Colorado and Nevada will be enough. President Obama wins other states only if he has the election sealed -- he wins Arizona only with the pair of CO and NV in tow, Indiana or Missouri only with OH in tow, North Carolina only with VA, in tow, and Georgia only with FL in tow. North Carolina goes to the President in an election approaching a landslide, if not an outright landslide.
Until the Republican debate at the Reagan Library, Perry was getting stronger than Romney. Your guess is as good as mine on the effect of the "Ponzi scheme" smear of Social Security not only upon Perry, but also Romney. Maybe it strengthened Romney. You can be sure that if Perry is the nominee, then the "Ponzi scheme" canard will be turned against him.
