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  NC-Magellan Strategies: Obama @ 40% approval, leads Romney and Perry
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Author Topic: NC-Magellan Strategies: Obama @ 40% approval, leads Romney and Perry  (Read 1831 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 12, 2011, 12:10:00 pm »

Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 923n autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of North Carolina. The interviews were conducted September 7th and 8th, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.23% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey results are weighted based upon past North Carolina voter turnout demographics.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

44% Favorable
52% Unfavorable

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

30% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry?

31% Favorable
37% Unfavorable

If the 2012 Presidential election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Barack Obama, Democrat or Mitt Romney, Republican?

Barack Obama ........................................................................... 45%
Mitt Romney............................................................................... 43%

If the 2012 Presidential election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Barack Obama, Democrat or Rick Perry, Republican?

Barack Obama ........................................................................... 48%
Rick Perry.................................................................................... 43%

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Magellan-North-Carolina-2012-General-Election-Survey-Release-0912111.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2011, 12:12:55 pm »

North Carolina continues to be .... really interesting !

Smiley
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2011, 02:00:12 pm »

North Carolina continues to be .... really interesting !

Smiley

North Carolina cotinues to improve Wink
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The Voice of America
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2011, 03:02:02 pm »

Something ain't adding up. 52% disapproval yet he wins? Hmmm...
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President von Cat
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2011, 03:08:25 pm »

Something ain't adding up. 52% disapproval yet he wins? Hmmm...

Romney and Perry aren't adding up to be decent alternatives to Obama. I could have told you that a year ago.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2011, 03:27:26 pm »

Disapproval doesn't always equal a vote for the opposition, so these results show the challenge the GOP has.
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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2011, 03:35:33 pm »

Disapproval doesn't always equal a vote for the opposition, so these results show the challenge the GOP has.


....no
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The_Texas_Libertarian
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2011, 04:03:12 pm »
« Edited: September 12, 2011, 04:04:44 pm by TXMichael »

Something ain't adding up. 52% disapproval yet he wins? Hmmm...

If you look at his opponents it adds up.  Perry could be viewed as nothing more than a more conservative George W Bush.  Romney as Mr. "Corporations are people"

Look at their approval and disapproval numbers; Perry and Romney also have net negative approval

If asked if I approve of Barack Obama I would say I disapprove.  I think he has gave too much ground to the conservatives, I think he has embraced too many conservative economic policies.  However I would answer that I would vote for the President
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The_Texas_Libertarian
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2011, 04:10:52 pm »

A second North Carolina poll showing a statistical dead heat is bad for the GOP.  Again not because of North Carolina itself, but because of of the other swing states that are a few more points Democratic than North Carolina

(The D figure represents how much more Democratic the states voted averaged with 2004 and 2008)
Virginia D+2.5 over North Carolina
Ohio D+2.5 over North Carolina
Florida D+2 over North Carolina

Not to mention Ohio and Florida have two unpopular Republican governors.  North Carolina is not a must win for the Democrats, but it is for the GOP
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2011, 06:42:13 pm »

Something ain't adding up. 52% disapproval yet he wins? Hmmm...

People who disapprove of both candidates  will often not vote or will waste their votes on a third-Party alternative.  The Constitution, Reform, and Libertarian Parties await the Right and the Green Party awaits the Left.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2011, 08:30:16 pm »

Something ain't adding up. 52% disapproval yet he wins? Hmmm...

It most certainly adds up when you look at the breakdown:

Independents

Approve  57%
Disapprove 39%

A lot of that disapproval is Democratic vote in NC that disapprove of Obama, but vote for him anyway.  This is true across the country.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2011, 09:32:03 pm »

Something ain't adding up. 52% disapproval yet he wins? Hmmm...

It most certainly adds up when you look at the breakdown:

Independents

Approve  57%
Disapprove 39%

A lot of that disapproval is Democratic vote in NC that disapprove of Obama, but vote for him anyway.  This is true across the country.

Yep. Honestly I would probably be in that territory.
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"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2011, 09:41:29 pm »

Something ain't adding up. 52% disapproval yet he wins? Hmmm...

It most certainly adds up when you look at the breakdown:

Independents

Approve  57%
Disapprove 39%

A lot of that disapproval is Democratic vote in NC that disapprove of Obama, but vote for him anyway.  This is true across the country.

Huh? The link shows Obama's approval/disapproval with indies as 35/56.
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King
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2011, 09:45:26 pm »

Something ain't adding up. 52% disapproval yet he wins? Hmmm...

It most certainly adds up when you look at the breakdown:

Independents

Approve  57%
Disapprove 39%

A lot of that disapproval is Democratic vote in NC that disapprove of Obama, but vote for him anyway.  This is true across the country.

Huh? The link shows Obama's approval/disapproval with indies as 35/56.

Oops.  Misread the senior vote backwards...  this is an odd result, but NC is 46% registered Democrat. 

Point is, in general, that Obama has far better ratings with moderates/independent compared to his opponents.   North Carolina independents might be more conservative. 
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2011, 10:41:08 am »

NC "independents" are very conservative for whatever reason. McCain won them handily while losing the state.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2011, 09:02:36 am »

North Carolina is move to the left while Florida and Ohio are moving to the left. I wouldn't be shocked if NC is more Democratic then FL and OH in 2012
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The_Texas_Libertarian
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2011, 12:04:25 pm »
« Edited: September 14, 2011, 12:07:10 pm by TXMichael »

Florida has a very high number of seniors.  I can't imagine Florida voting less Democratic than North Carolina with the "Medicare voucher program" and "Social security is a scam" slogans of the GOP.  Also Florida has been voting rather consistent over the past few elections with one or two points more Republican than the nation as a whole.  Ohio I'm not sure about
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2011, 12:14:56 pm »

North Carolina is move to the left while Florida and Ohio are moving to the left. I wouldn't be shocked if NC is more Democratic then FL and OH in 2012

I agree; while I do think OH and FL will continue to trend rightward though.
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CJK
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2011, 12:35:32 pm »

The problem is that a Republican has to win 66% of the white vote to carry North Carolina.

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