Predict the winners of the pre-March primaries
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Author Topic: Predict the winners of the pre-March primaries  (Read 1337 times)
bgwah
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« on: September 11, 2011, 04:19:54 PM »
NOTE: You are only allowed to bump this thread in the future if you enter a prediction now! Smiley

Jacking this from Morden's primary calendar thread:

blue = primary, red = caucus, green = something that isn't really a primary or a caucus.

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar (tentative)

IA:

NH:

SC:

FL:

GA:

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME:

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO:
NJ:
MN:
ND:

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA:

at, Feb. 18:
NV:

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI:

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*:
MI:

Include numbers and go beyond February if you want to...
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bgwah
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2011, 04:22:53 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2011, 04:30:12 PM by bgwah »
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar (tentative)

IA: Perry

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Romney

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Romney
NJ: Romney
MN: Perry
ND: Perry

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions: Perry

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Perry, would be funny if Paul won though

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Perry

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Perry
MI: Romney
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Lambsbread
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2011, 04:29:54 PM »
blue = primary, red = caucus, green = something that isn't really a primary or a caucus.

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar (tentative)

IA: Romney

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Romney

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Romney
ND: Perry

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions: Romney

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Romney

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Perry
MI: Romney
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2011, 05:25:41 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2011, 05:28:04 PM by Averroës Nix »
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar (tentative)

IA: Romney

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Romney

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Romney
ND: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions: Perry

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Romney

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Romney
MI: Romney

I hadn't realized how favorable the current calendar is to Romney. A Romney win in Florida could bring things to a very early end.
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2011, 05:40:44 PM »
You guys really think Romney's gonna win in Iowa?
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2011, 06:01:30 PM »
IA: Perry
(Bachmann swiftly withdraws in her concession speech).

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Romney

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Romney
ND: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions: Perry

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Romney

---------------------PERRY WITHDRAWS AT SOME POINT IN THIS WEEK-----------------
Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Romney
MI:Romney
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2011, 06:51:20 PM »
2012 GOP Presidential Primary

IA: Perry

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Perry

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Perry
ND: Perry

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions: Perry

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Perry

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Perry

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Perry
MI: Perry
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2011, 08:04:30 PM »
That's not how the primary calendar will look.  New Joisey is moving back to June, Nevada will be up, and then some other shuffling will take place.
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Politico
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2011, 08:53:04 PM »
Quote from: Progressive on September 11, 2011, 05:40:44 PM
You guys really think Romney's gonna win in Iowa?

Bachmann and Perry are going to obliterate one another there (Why? Bachmann is finished if she does not win there). Do not be surprised if Romney benefits.
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I Am Feeblepizza.
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2011, 07:53:41 AM »
IA: Perry; Bachmann withdrawals and endorses Perry

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Romney

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney; at this point, the race is probably down to him, Perry, and Paul (who never knows when to quit)

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Romney
ND: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions: Paul; if not him, Romney

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Perry

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Perry

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Romney
MI: Romney
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2011, 09:24:14 PM »
According to the Frontloading Blog, this is a more likely Calendar

January 30: Iowa
February 7: New Hampshire
February 11: Nevada
February 18: South Carolina
February 21: Florida, Georgia
February 28: Arizona, Michigan


So with that list, my guesses are

IA: Perry
NH: Romney (Santorum, Gingrich drop out)
NV: Perry
SC: Perry (Bachman drops out)
FL: Romney, GA: Perry (Huntsman, Cain drop out)
MI: Romney, AZ: Perry
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2011, 09:30:08 PM »
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar (tentative)

IA: Bachmann

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Romney

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Romney
ND: Romney

At this point, the race is down to Romney and Perry, with Romney having a clear edge.

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions: Romney

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Romney

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Romney
MI: Romney

Following the February 28th primaries, Rick Perry withdraws from the race, and Mitt Romney becomes the presumptive nominee. I imagine Paul is still in the race, but he withdraws around June, refusing to make an endorsement.
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angus
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2011, 11:33:01 AM »

IA:  Perry

NH:  Romney

SC:  Romney

FL:  Perry

GA:  Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME:  Paul

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO:  Perry
NJ:  Romney
MN:  Romney
ND:  Huntsman

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions  Perry

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA:  Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV:  Cain

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI:  Romney

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*:  Santorum
MI:  Romney
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kireev
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2011, 11:38:48 AM »
IA: Perry

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Romney

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Romney
ND: Perry

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions - Romney

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Perry

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Romney
MI: Romney
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I Am Feeblepizza.
ALF
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2011, 07:53:51 AM »
Quote from: angus on September 13, 2011, 11:33:01 AM
ND:  Huntsman

at, Feb. 18:
NV:  Cain

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*:  Santorum
May I inquire as to your rationale in these three predictions?
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2011, 11:29:08 AM »
I'm sorry but if I'm going to make a prediction on here I'll actually go with a primary schedule that has a stones throw in hell of actually happening.

IA: Perry

NH: Romney

NV: Perry

SC: Perry

GA: Perry

FL: Romney

AZ: Perry   MI: Romney


And MN(non binding): Bachmann then a few months down those delegates will actually end up casting their vote for Perry.
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angus
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2011, 12:57:45 PM »
Quote from: ALF on September 14, 2011, 07:53:51 AM
Quote from: angus on September 13, 2011, 11:33:01 AM
ND:  Huntsman

at, Feb. 18:
NV:  Cain

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*:  Santorum
May I inquire as to your rationale in these three predictions?

haha.

Just having fun.  Don't take any of it too seriously.  The only thing that I can reliably predict is that Ron Paul will get at least one popular vote in the Iowa caucus.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2011, 02:55:05 PM »
2012 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar (tentative)

IA: Perry

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Romney

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Romney
ND: Perry

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions Perry

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Romney

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Romney
MI: Romney

Include numbers and go beyond February if you want to...
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Thomas D
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2011, 05:01:43 PM »
IA: Perry

NH: Romney

SC: Perry

FL: Perry

GA: Perry

Fri, Feb. 3 - Sun, Feb. 5:
ME: Romney

Tue, Feb. 7:
MO: Perry
NJ: Romney
MN: Romney
ND: Perry

Tue, Feb. 7 - Sat. Feb. 11:
AK district conventions - Perry

Sat, Feb. 11:
WA: Romney

at, Feb. 18:
NV: Romney

Tue, Feb. 21:
WI: Perry

Tue, Feb. 28:
AZ*: Perry
MI: Romney
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