Anti-gay marriage amendment will be on ballot in NC in May 2012

[Tender Branson]

Isn't this (being in May vs November) going to make it more likely to pass as Republicans are having their primary?

Well, I guess it's still better in May than in November.

A) The polls are currently pointing strongly in the direction that voters will oppose it - but that assumes that Democrats are turning out in the primary like they would in a general election. That leads us to point B.

B) It depends if the Republican nomination for President is over by May 2012. It also depends on the fact if McCrory gets a credible primary challenger. If these 2 things are not happening, Republican turnout might not be so high and the thing could be rejected.

C) Having this in November would probably benefit the Republican candidate in a close Presidential race.

[Tender Branson]

When PPP last polled North Carolina a week ago, the results were this:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 31%
Illegal .............................................................. 61%

State legislators have proposed an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would prohibit the recognition of marriage, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for gay and lesbian couples. If the election was held today, would you vote for or against this amendment?

Would vote for it.............................................. 30%
Would vote against it ...................................... 55%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_09071217.pdf

...

I think it depends on the language of the ballot question. Does it only call for a ban of same-sex marriage, or does it call for a ban on all forms of same-sex partnerships incl. civil unions, registered partnerships etc. ?

This could make the difference to people who are primarily against gay marriage, but would not support the amendment because they favor civil unions and do not want them banned in the constitution.

Anther point could be the fact that North Carolina already has a state statute that bans same-sex marriage, so voters could think: Hey, why having an additional referendum for a constitutional amendment ? That's dispensable.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/nc-marriage-amendment-starts-with-lead.html

PPP's first look at the proposed marriage amendment in North Carolina since the legislature placed it on the ballot finds it leading 61-34. Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor of it (80/17) and independents (52/43) and Democrats (49/44) support it as well



Landslide.

Why exactly did the numbers flip since their last poll ?

Last time voters were opposed by 20 points, now they favor it by about 30 ?