Anti-gay marriage amendment will be on ballot in NC in May 2012

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I'm certainly disappointed by this, but I can't say I'm surprised.

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RALEIGH -- Not an hour after the Senate voted Tuesday to put a proposed constitutional same-sex marriage ban on the May ballot, the leader of the gay rights group Equality North Carolina mentioned to a supporter the need to raise millions for a campaign opposing it.

The debates this week in the House and Senate, which voted 30-16 to let voters decide whether to ban same-sex marriage, aired some of the same messages voters will hear in the statewide campaigns in the coming months.

Thirty other states have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage approved by voters. Recent referendum campaigns have cost millions of dollars and engaged national groups such as the Human Rights Campaign and the National Organization for Marriage.

Read more at http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/09/14/1486492/amendment-on-ballot-opposition.html

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The NC GOP preferred to have it in Nov 2012, to drive up conservative turnout. But they needed to convince some anti-gay Dems to support it (who would be concerned about losing with an energized conservative turnout), so they moved it to the primary in May 2012. I have mixed feelings about whether it would be worse to have it with the primary than the general. Having it in the general could cost some Dems their seats. But without Obama or Gov. Perdue (likely) having a serious primary challenge, their may be lower Dem turnout, making it easier to pass. Also, it could result in likely/safe GOP districts being represented by someone even more far-right.

It's possible we could vote against it, though history and location is against us, but nationally these amendments are getting less popular over time.

My guess about the best counties against the amendment would be:

Orange
Buncombe
Durham
Watauga
Guilford
Wake
Jackson
Mecklenburg
Cumberland
Forsyth

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Let's see which "Democrats" voted for this mess:

Five conservative Dems who usually vote with the GOP:   

1   Owens
2   Spear
20   Hill
22   Brisson
32   Crawford

The first four represented districts carried by McCain, but Crawford's district went for Obama.

Goodman (66) is a pretty conservative Dem whose district voted for McCain.

The other four who voted for the anti-gay amendment are (all from districts that voted Obama): Floyd (43), Graham (47), Pierce (48), and McGuirt (69). Floyd and Pierce are black and Graham is Native American. McGuirt is white and represents Union and Anson county.

The only Dems representing McCain districts that voted against this amendment are Rapp (118) and Haire (119), both in western NC.

The Senate vote was on party lines.

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Renee Ellmers (R-NC-2) opposes the anti-gay amendment:

"U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers says that she opposes same-sex marriages but that she intends to vote against a proposed constitutional amendment banning them that will be on the North Carolina ballot in May because it would also ban civil unions.

Ellmers, a conservative Republican, was asked her opinion on the Defense of Marriage amendment during an appearance last week at Campbell University, and her answer might have surprised some listeners.

Dome heard about Ellmers' remarks and asked her office for clarification. Her spokesman, Tom Doheny, confirmed that she planned to vote against the constitutional ban that was adopted by the legislature in September because it is too broadly drawn."

Read more at: http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/10/02/1532832/amendment-is-too-broad-to-get.html

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There's a decent chance we could beat this. It will mainly depend on turnout and voters realizing this goes far beyond banning gay marriage.

Anyone want to take a stab at this:

My guess about the best counties against the amendment would be:

Orange
Buncombe
Durham
Watauga
Guilford
Wake
Jackson
Mecklenburg
Cumberland
Forsyth

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can we get this moved to Nov 2012?...I think the voters need 6 more months to think it over

The GOP would have preferred that, but compromised to May 2012 to get conservative Democrats to go on board.

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bump for predictions with the election Tuesday.

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It'll pass. Like I said earlier in the thread, every time gay marriage is voted on directly by the people, it fails. If this fails, it won't legalize it though, right?

Well, this actually bans a lot more than gay marriage (and won't legalize it if it fails). Even some of the sponsors have admitted it would likely be appealed in 20 or so years, though there'll be plenty of time where most of the public will want it overturned but won't yet have a legislative supermajority required to actually overturn it.