Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama

[pbrower2a]

Michigan could be close for Obama against Romney... it usually looks close a year before the election, as in 2008. Having ties to the state helps, although he has about as many ties to Michigan as Al Gore had to Tennessee in 1999.  He begins with much good will because of early connections with the state, but if he loses touch with Michigan, then he loses the state -- much as Al Gore lost Tennessee in  2000. Just take a good look at neighboring Ohio; he has to pick up one of the two to have a meaningful chance to win, and he has little room for error.


Vote Romney……………………………………………………….42%
Lean Romney……………………………………………………….2%

Vote Obama………………………………………………………..42%
Lean Obama………………………………………………………..3%

Perry would be trounced:

Vote Perry…………………………………………………………..35%
Lean Perry…………………………………………………………..4%

Vote Obama………………………………………………………..47%
Lean Obama………………………………………………………..3%

http://www.mrgmi.com/MRG_IMP_09_21_11_FINAL.pdf

If anyone wants to see what the Favorite Son effect is, then here it is.

Quinnipiac just polled Florida, but largely concurs with the other pollster. The later poll supplants an earlier one:

Obama             44%  
Perry                42  

Obama                40%
Romney               47  

The good news for President Obama is that Perry leads among registered Republicans against Mitt Romney in a state that can easily make or break a primary race.

An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.

[pbrower2a]

Big one here!

56-36 Obama vs. Romney
56-33 Obama vs. Perry

(Siena College)

I didn't say that it would be interesting or surprising. I love New York... politics! 

The President has apparently been slipping in Virginia:

http://roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RC%20Poll%20Sept.%202011.pdf


Suppose the Republican Party nominated Mitt Romney for President. Would you vote for

Obama 36.9
Romney 44.7

If Rick Perry were the Republican nominee, would you vote for

Obama 39.0
Perry    41.8


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.

[pbrower2a]

Two Q polls from big states in electoral votes:

A. Pennsylvania

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Also,
 

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653

1. I don't know whether Pennsylvania would get such a change through simple majority votes of the two houses of the state legislature and the signature of the Governor... or through a referendum.

2. Even with such a low approval number for the President, he apparently wins against both Perry and Romney, according to Quinnipiac. Such bodes ill for any Republican nominee unless the President utterly collapses (which he has not yet done).

3. I ignore Rick Santorum.

4. President Obama probably can't win re-election without Pennsylvania.

B. Ohio

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1. The Republican nominee must win Ohio to have a chance to win. The state has voted with the winner every time for since at least 1972.

2. The approval rate for the President is poor -- but he still has a very good chance of winning the state. Such shows a huge problem for the Republican nominee of 2012 unless things change dramatically by November of next year -- and of course to the benefit of the Republican nominee. That is asking for a lot.

3. Nothing changes from the PPP poll of last month.  

$. Quinnippiac apparently ignores Santorum in Ohio.
  


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.

[pbrower2a]

PPP released results for Florida. Bad news for Republicans who want Florida to be a sure thing for their nominee:

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The President can win the state with such an approval rating now  when news is mostly bleak. His approval at this stage has to be about 44% as an incumbent if he is to have a 50-50 chance of winning it.

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President Obama would win Florida decisively against Rick Perry and is in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. The political mix looks much like what President Obama won with in 2008, and President Obama is in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. Q13 demonstrates where Rick Perry has ensured that he will not be the next President if the United States.

The Republican nominee can't win without Florida. President Obama could lose the state (especially if Governor Rick Scott does some political chicanery) and still win nationwide.  


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of some legitimate swing states.

Rick Perry would lose catastrophically.

[pbrower2a]

Big one -- Virginia, and from a pollster that used to give lots of statewide polls and may be warming up. It's a virtual tie between Obama and Romney, and Perry seems to be falling apart.

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_presidential_election

(You will have to pay Rasmussen to see more). 


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of some legitimate swing states.

[pbrower2a]

re: Virginia

This summer I have rarely seen any state swing as wildly as Virginia. The state's political orientation may be more volatile than that of any other State; after all, it has huge numbers of civilian and military government employees and employees of government contractors. Virginians may pay more attention than residents of any other State to politics. The state had about a 60% approval rating for the President in the aftermath of the whacking of Osama bin Laden, which is about one would expect in Massachusetts; that has long abated.

Results in the Obama-Romney matchup are consistent with an approval rating around 45% for the President. Of course it is a virtual tie, and virtual ties in most of the swing states of 2008 in late October 2012 suggest big trouble for a Republican in that the chance of stringing together five must-win scenarios for the Republican nominee (Colorado and Nevada together, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia) best described as 50-50 propositions would give the Republican nominee about one chance in 32 of winning. In statistical parlance that is five independent events. "Indiana" would not count as an  independent event because President Obama has no way of winning Indiana without winning Ohio; "Arizona" implies that the President has won Colorado and Nevada and won; "Georgia" implies that the President has won Florida and North Carolina and won, so that's one way of explaining what an "independent event" isn't. I'm not going to discuss Missouri, which is within the range of a virtual tie. 

Now as for Perry... a Republican candidate can lose Virginia in a close election, but by 10%? Such suggests an utter collapse. Virginia is at least R+2, so such projects to about a 57-43 split nationwide. At such a point I see the President winning everything that he won in 2008 while picking up Missouri, Georgia, and Arizona at the least.       

[pbrower2a]

Did anyone expect the President to be in trouble in his own state?


http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/illinois-obama-approval-rating-poll-romney-home-state-perry-cain-presidential-2012-reelection-20111003

Obama: 52.35%
Perry: 30.20%

Obama: 50.26%
Romney: 34.79%

Nope.


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of some legitimate swing states.

[pbrower2a]

This is from a Republican pollster, War Room Logistics:

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/files/wrl093011-writeup.pdf

Unless you see a reason for a Republican pollster to inflate the chances of President Obama or these results represent some huge error (tell me if you see such), I see a big gain for President Obama against Mitt Romney  in Florida. The Republican nominee basically must win some large northern state to offset Florida. 

A collapse mode for Rick Perry is not to be ruled out in view of a recent poll in Virginia.  I may have to drop him.


Obama 53.30%  Perry 36.30%

Obama 47.50%  Romney 42.30%



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia) or the combination of Colorado and Nevada.

[pbrower2a]

A poll from Michigan shows the President 47-44 ahead of Romney and nothing on him against Perry. Only the Obama/Romney split is shown, so the one for Obama/Perry doesn't change.  It looks good for Mitt Romney; his father was a well-respected governor of Michigan.

Here's one for Maryland, but it has two quirks. Like the Michigan poll,  it doesn't show an Obama-Perry matchup, so Maryland appears blank for such. (Anyone who expects Rick Perry to fare better in Maryland than in Virginia is a fool, but I don't show what isn't put in print. Second, it suggests a VP nominee -- Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, who is one of the most effective Governors in America.  I can't imagine anyone who would fare better as a running mate.

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20October%202011.pdf



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia) or the combination of Colorado and Nevada.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1006925.pdf

Within the margin of error, and eminently winnable for the President.  If North Carolina is within the margin of error, then the Republicans are going to lose anyway as in 1992 and 2008.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia) or the combination of Colorado and Nevada.

[pbrower2a]

Probably the state with the most complicated role in national politics -- Nebraska. Redistricting makes it even more complicated now.

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No chance for the President at all in Nebraska? Not quite. The state isn't so politically-homogeneous as it looks.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_1006.pdf

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Not really, at least statewide.  This isn't spectacular for Mitt Romney, but for a state this Red, it suggests a collapse for Rick Perry in a state that the President lost in 2008 by a margin in the teens.  

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The best-laid plans of mice and men, let alone state legislators, can backfire. This is in new districts.  It is safe to assume that NE-03 (central and western Nebraska, from roughly Grand Island westward) will go for the Republican nominee by a wider margin than any State -- even Wyoming. You may have been accustomed to seeing the middle square (NE-02) in Nebraska look as if it projects to be a winner for President Obama and the ones on the left and right (NE-01 and NE-03) as losers for the President. That is one of the few assumptions that I can make.

If the Republicans lose even one district in Nebraska, then they have lost nationwide.I would say the inverse of Maine.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to; he needs win only win  all of those that he won by at least 9%. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) or pick up Missouri and one  of the three districts of Nebraska.

[pbrower2a]

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No real change. The Ohio economy is still in the tank.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1652

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to; he needs win only win  all of those that he won by at least 9%. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) or pick up Missouri and one  of the three districts of Nebraska.

[pbrower2a]

I am a bit slow to get this one, but I eventually found it... and I got more than some others did and may have gotten it best.

It looks as if New Hampshire voters are nostalgic about Mitt Romney even if he was Governor of a neighboring State:

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but Rick Perry rubs them the wrong way:

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http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2011_fall_primary100711.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Quinnipiac:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1658

Statistical tie, Obama vs. Romney, when the President's approval rating nationwide is still in the tank.

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Good news for the President: he is up 54-32 among the 18-34 age group against Romney, which means that if the President's campaign apparatus has an effective GOTV effort in 2012, he wins Virginia against even Romney. People as old as 21 (born late in 1991) did not vote in 2008, and nothing indicates that Republicans are reaching that demographic with desired results.  The youngest voters of 2008 were born in 1990; the youngest voters of 2012 will have been born in 1994.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

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http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/IA_PollResults_Questionnaire.pdf

The same pollster showed New Hampshire, and that concurs with the WMUR-TV/UNH poll, so no change there.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  

[FloridaRepublican]

I just don't see any Republican that can win Virginia without winning North Carolina.

[pbrower2a]

I just don't see any Republican that can win Virginia without winning North Carolina.

Neither do I.

Virginia may be one of the most volatile of states in its orientation. I have seen approval ratings for the President there from about 40% to 55%.  I still figure that President Obama has slightly more than a 50% chance of winning the state. Give the President about a 50% chance of winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia against Romney in an election in which he loses New Hampshire and wins one or two of Colorado and Nevada, and the President has about 15 chances in 16 of re-election.   

Perry likely loses every state that I mentioned.   

[pbrower2a]

Now we get a new Iowa poll:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1012513.pdf


Slight change, and I wouldn't make much of it:


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, New Jersey:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1661

If I see any pattern it is that the President is not leading by as extreme margins  with which he defeated John McCain in 2008, at least against Mitt Romney. Rick Perry is beginning to look like a joke; he would probably lose much like Stevenson against Eisenhower in the 1950s. 


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  

[pbrower2a]

WWL-TV (CBS 4, New Orleans), Clarus, Louisiana

Does the Deep South begin to resemble the former Yugoslavia as it was splitting -- at least in politics based upon ethnic identification? It has been 150 years since the Civil War, and one would think that people would have put some old wounds to rest by now as such matters as international terror, drug trafficking, economic distress, the environment (Louisiana has some of the most vulnerable ecosystems in America) and educational achievement are more important.

Tsk, tsk.

http://www.wwltv.com/news/politics/Presidential-Poll-131821978.html

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PPP has a new poll for West Virginia, and it shows no change.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  

[pbrower2a]

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Strange pollster. SUSA has gotten some weird results that look very R... but this one is about the opposite. It looks consistent with the President having about a 50% approval rating or in essence, that the President is about to win about as he did in 2008, with huge margins in most of the states that he won in in 2008. No event so suggests that such has happened, and I see no evidence of a Romney collapse in recent days.

If Michiganders are more upbeat because the Detroit Tigers were doping well in the playoffs -- that won't last. You'd be surprised at what creates a climate of optimism.   

President Obama wins Michigan big if the auto industry has a significant rebound by 2012. Michigan gets polled fairly often, so if this poll is a fluke, then it won't last.   


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

I am about to close my contributions to this particular thread. Rick Perry has undergone a nearly-complete crash in his approvals. This week PPP releases matchups between President Obama and Republicans in Hawaii and Ohio -- one state that President Obama has virtually no chance of losing, and one that is as close to a bellwether as there is. Perry dropped to sixth place in Ohio, and I see that as a sign that he cannot win the Republican primary. I will go so far as the Hawaii and Ohio polls, but that will be the end.  I am completely satisfied that although Mitt Romney has a chance to defeat President Obama, Rick Perry stands to lose roughly 410-128 with Texas as  the iffy divide.

I am going to start a thread on Obama vs. Romney and Obama vs. Cain today. I would have never expected a fast-food tycoon to have a valid shot at the Republican nomination... but the statistics do not lie. If any election shows that anyone can become President... it is 2012.

[pbrower2a]

This came in before the polls from PPP for Ohio and Hawaii. President Obama apparently does better against Romney than he did against John McCain in 2008. 

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/FL_Poll%20Results_Questionnaire_111018.pdf

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Barack Obama, the Democrat 45
Mitt Romney, the Republican 43
Undecided 12
Total 100



Barack Obama, the Democrat 47
Rick Perry, the Republican 39
Undecided 13
Total 100

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/SC_Poll%20Results_Questionnaire_111018.pdf

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Barack Obama, the Democrat  40
Mitt Romney, the Republican   46
Undecided  14
Total  100

Barack Obama, the Democrat 42
Rick Perry, the Republican       43
Undecided  15
Total  100


under 1% white
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5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

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The latter is about what I would expect in a state in which the President has a 43% approval rating at the time.  Of course Romney will need Ohio with which to win but President Obama has other possibilities that would assure his win. But Rick Perry is showing himself thoroughly unelectable. Romney is electable.

In view of how badly Rick Perry does in Ohio -- that he would lose Ohio by 9% -- it is easy to see why I am going to drop him and start a new thread involving President Obama against Mitt Romney and Herman Cain. Perry has become a travesty, and someone who loses Ohio by by 9% would lose nationwide by about 10%. Perry is going into an electoral collapse as Romney holds his own against President Obama in Ohio. I think that Perry would lose such states as Arizona, Georgia,  Indiana, Montana, and the Dakotas, and in view of his unfortunate ties to a pastor who claims that Mormons aren't real Christians, he might lose Utah. He would win Texas only because of the Favorite Son effect.    I suggest that this thread be closed now; no Republican has a chance of winning the four electoral votes of Hawaii, anyway, and hasn't won them since Ronald Reagan did in the 1984 blowout.

Thinking of an alternative? Sure: Here it is:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1018.pdf

Herman Cain may be to the right of everyone who has been running for President as a Republican except perhaps Michele (Political rights be damned unless you are a 'conservative' Republican) Bachmann, a borderline fascist. As a black man he can get away with saying things that right-wing white politicians dare not say because nobody will be able to say that he is a racist. I think that he is to electoral politics what Clarence Thomas is to the judiciary. 


under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

Obama vs. Romney