National Tracking Poll Thread

[krazen1211]

Ras tracker;

Romney 49 (+1)
Obama 47 (unc)

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

[krazen1211]

Ras swing state tracker

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 48 (-2)

[Umengus]

Ras swing state tracker

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 48 (-2)

On 7 days

"nearly all of the responses in the latest survey come from before the second presidential debate Tuesday night"

Don't panic, democrats

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Ras swing state tracker

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 48 (-2)

On 7 days

"nearly all of the responses in the latest survey come from before the second presidential debate Tuesday night"

Don't panic, democrats

Y'know, I think they can figure that out for themselves, which accounts for the distinct lack of panic.

[Lief 🗽]

There is now a six-point gap between registered and likely voters according to Gallup.

RV
Romney 48%
Obama 47% (+1)

LV
Romney 52% (+1)
Obama 45%

[krazen1211]

Gallup

Romney 52 (+1)
Obama 45 (unc)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think it's time Gallup gets flushed onto the scrap heap of history.

[Earthling]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

[Wiz in Wis]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

They also had Romney opening up a 22+ point lead in the South, but losing all the other regions... seems unlikely.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.

Probably the only way for an incumbent President to lose with a 50% approval rating is if the challenger is a national hero - not a spoiled, job-killing crybaby like Romney.

[J. J.]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.

We can do better?  

Just throwing it out there, not advocating it.  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

They also had Romney opening up a 22+ point lead in the South, but losing all the other regions... seems unlikely.

Also they have Obama leading by only 4% in the Northeast - even though he's winning every state in the Northeast by more than 4%.

[Likely Voter]

The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

[Earthling]

The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

It's even more weird to have an incumbent with 50% approval rating losing the election by 7. One of these numbers doesn't make sense, or both. But they can't be both right. If Obama is at or around 50% on November 6th, he will be most likely reelected.

[dirks]

Romney +7!!! in Gallup

Quite the debate bounce for Obama

[Likely Voter]

The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

It's even more weird to have an incumbent with 50% approval rating losing the election by 7. One of these numbers doesn't make sense, or both. But they can't be both right. If Obama is at or around 50% on November 6th, he will be most likely reelected.

That should be true but bear in mind that Gallup's approval rating number is for all adults, which has always been much more Dem friendly. Basically Gallup's assessment of the country is that if they all voted, Obama would win, but a huge chunk of dem friendly citizens cant be bothered to register and many of those who do still wont bother voting

[RogueBeaver]

JA is adults, LV is well, LV. That's probably why.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.

[Sbane]

Didn't Gallup predict the Democrats would lose the house by double digit margins in 2010 using their "traditional" likely voter model? Are they still using that model this year?

[Earthling]

The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

It's even more weird to have an incumbent with 50% approval rating losing the election by 7. One of these numbers doesn't make sense, or both. But they can't be both right. If Obama is at or around 50% on November 6th, he will be most likely reelected.

That should be true but bear in mind that Gallup's approval rating number is for all adults, which has always been much more Dem friendly. Basically Gallup's assessment of the country is that if they all voted, Obama would win, but a huge chunk of dem friendly citizens cant be bothered to register and many of those who do still wont bother voting

Still. No way that Obama has a +6 approval rating and is losing the election by 7.

[Yank2133]

Didn't Gallup predict the Democrats would lose the house by double digit margins in 2010 using their "traditional" likely voter model? Are they still using that model this year?

Yeah, Gallup was off by nine points in 2010 with their LV model.

Even Silver doesn't use their LV numbers for his model.

[You kip if you want to...]

Okay, +7 is the definition of an outlier when you look at other recent polls.