National Tracking Poll Thread

[Likely Voter]

Saturday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

RAND Obama +3 (R+1)
Reuters* Obama+3 (-)
TIPP Obama +3  (O+1)
PPP  Obama +2 (O+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +1 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (-)
 
avg  Obama +0.5 (R+0.2)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons

Yes, Obama definitely has clear momentum.

Sigh.

Hard to say if either has momentum. Obama has gained about 1 point since the debate in the trackers but it may be flattening out again or trending back to Romney. I think on Monday we will have a better idea as all the pre-debate data will be gone. There is also an NBC national poll coming out Sunday and I assume another battleground poll from Politico.

[Eraserhead]

NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll on Sunday? Nice! Finally.

[Likely Voter]

Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.

[Eraserhead]

Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.

I'll predict a tie (which is what I think the race actually is right now too).

[Likely Voter]

Alan Abrmowitz says that Gallup is an outlier because their LV model is excluding too many non-whites...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/election-polls-gallup_b_1989865.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

Unlike the obsession with party ID weighting, race is something that really matters.

Even the Romney campaign is working on the assumption that 26% of the electorate will be non-white
http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/obama-needs-80-of-minority-vote-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.

I'll predict a tie (which is what I think the race actually is right now too).

I predict Romney plus 1-2 or tie.

[J. J.]

Alan Abrmowitz says that Gallup is an outlier because their LV model is excluding too many non-whites...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/election-polls-gallup_b_1989865.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

Unlike the obsession with party ID weighting, race is something that really matters.

Even the Romney campaign is working on the assumption that 26% of the electorate will be non-white
http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/obama-needs-80-of-minority-vote-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824

While I will agree that their modeling may be off, Obama dropped to 46% (-1) on Gallup's Registered Voter poll.

[Cliffy]

It's not random when you manipulate your demographics to get there...... good grief.  Can we have a discussion without name calling?

Lol, our friends on here that say Party ID doesn't matter, ignore that these bastions of liberal polling keep having to increase their D samples to keep that firewall up for Obama.  Hope the lib voters get the memo they have to turnout accordingly.... wait I guess the polls are the memo

PPP (Oct. 17-19)
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-expands-lead-to-2-points-in-tracking-poll.html

EDIT: Oops. Didn't see this above.

Party id: D +6

(when it was tied, it was D +4, when it was o +1, it was D+5. TODAY, Party identification is solid like gender, age in my opinion).

Romney lead Independents by 6. Steady lead.

You can't try to increase Party ID you retard. Party ID depends on the sample, it's random.

[Cliffy]

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/10/20/UPI-Poll-Obama-cuts-into-Romney-lead/UPI-19991350739458/

[J. J.]

Rasussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1

[J. J.]

Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered): 

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

[J. J.]

Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered): 

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

Some comments.

1.  This is not due to a problem with the likely voter screen.  It could be a problem of sample weighting.

2.  This is not do to a bad sample; this has lasted too long. 

3.  Okay, Lief, now you can panic. 

[Lief 🗽]

Why would I panic? Gallup is not a good poll. They were very off in both 2008 and 2010. All the other data points to a tied national election with Obama holding on to a very slight electoral college lead.

[Eraserhead]

I really don't know if Obama is going to win or not at this point but Gallup is very likely to be embarrassed either way unless they play with their numbers last minute to save face.

There is literally no evidence in any of the other national or state polling to suggest that Obama is trailing by anything close to 7%.

[Lief 🗽]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

[Lief 🗽]

RCP must really be regretting arbitrarily decided to include the IBD tracker in their average now.

[Likely Voter]

Sunday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

TIPP Obama +6  (O+3)
RAND Obama +2 (R+1)
Reuters Obama+1 (R+2)
PPP  TIE (R+2)
Rasmussen  Romney +2 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +7  (R+1)
  
avg  TIE  (R+0.5)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons

[Umengus]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

[Oakvale]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

STOP.

[Dumbo]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

8 % not sure for which candidate they will vote, that
are millions of voters ...

------------
R +7, O +6 = 12.000.000 votes difference ...

[Likely Voter]

HuffPo/Pollster has some news on Rasmussen's weighting changes. They moved from weighting D+3 to D+1.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Andrew1]

So today's trackers range from Romney +7 to Obama +6.

Gallup are in a world of their own.

Possibly IBD/TIPP is susceptible to wild swings. Remember how it shot up to Romney +5 the second day it was published, before settling down again?

[J. J.]

So today's trackers range from Romney +7 to Obama +6.

Gallup are in a world of their own.

Possibly IBD/TIPP is susceptible to wild swings. Remember how it shot up to Romney +5 the second day it was published, before settling down again?

No, that's Rasmussen, not Gallup. 

Gallup might have a problem with their sample.  In 2008, they overestimated Obama.

[Brittain33]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

In the last few years, many conservatives have shifted their ID from Republican to Independent. This leads both to a bigger margin for Dems and a bigger lead for Republicans among Is. It doesn't change the overall composition of the electorate on its own.

[Speed of Sound]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

In the last few years, many conservatives have shifted their ID from Republican to Independent. This leads both to a bigger margin for Dems and a bigger lead for Republicans among Is. It doesn't change the overall composition of the electorate on its own.

I'm starting to go insane with the incredible deja vu feeling of seeing this happen every single time poll numbers are posted. Thank goodness for you, man, because I don't have the patience to keep explaining to Umengus/Cliffy why they're wrong in every single freaking thread ever created regarding a poll.