Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 26, 2019, 11:27:25 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  National Tracking Poll Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 Print
Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 260487 times)
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,286
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1875 on: November 05, 2012, 09:13:55 am »

I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote
At this point in 2004, Bush Cheney internal polling had Bush at 274 electoral votes. Most of the "toss up" EVs broke for the challenger.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,810
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1876 on: November 05, 2012, 09:55:51 am »

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49%, u

Obama:  48, -1
Logged
GMantis
Dessie Potter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,723
Bulgaria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1877 on: November 05, 2012, 11:38:30 am »

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49%, u

Obama:  48, -1
Mittmentum?
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,634
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1878 on: November 05, 2012, 11:42:11 am »

I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote
At this point in 2004, Bush Cheney internal polling had Bush at 274 electoral votes. Most of the "toss up" EVs broke for the challenger.

He is blowing so much smoke on 2004 I don't even know what to say. The following states were within 3% in the RCP election day averages that year:

IA: Bush +0.3- HELD
FL: Bush +0.6- HELD (would have singlehandedly elected Kerry if it flipped)
WI: Bush+0.9- FLIPPED
HI: Bush +0.9- FLIPPED (huge issues with polling here every year)
PA: Kerry +0.9-HELD
NH: Kerry +1.0- HELD
NM: Bush +1.4- HELD
OH: Bush +2.1- HELD

Yep, Bush totally had 270 in the bag on election day 2004.

    

Logged
jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 449
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1879 on: November 05, 2012, 11:56:35 am »

I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote


Not quite. According to the exit polls, people who decided  on the last day broke for Kerry 52/45.

Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,284
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1880 on: November 05, 2012, 12:59:31 pm »

HI: Bush +0.9- FLIPPED (huge issues with polling here every year)
There were just two polls IIRC, or at least only two late ones.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,810
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1881 on: November 05, 2012, 01:58:33 pm »

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49%, u

Obama:  48, -1
Mittmentum?

Just reporting, not commenting. 
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,612
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1882 on: November 05, 2012, 02:03:04 pm »

I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote
At this point in 2004, Bush Cheney internal polling had Bush at 274 electoral votes. Most of the "toss up" EVs broke for the challenger.

Didn't I completely discredit you on this in the IA thread?  I noticed you never bothered to even try to argue with me.  Maybe you ought to go back an refresh your memory.
Logged
Cliffy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 593
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1883 on: November 05, 2012, 02:08:05 pm »

Rasmussen's party affiliation for October R+5.8 Cheesy Wow!

Believe he was very close the last two elections, if this is even 0, Obama's toast.  D+3 or less and Romney likely wins Wink

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,138


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1884 on: November 05, 2012, 02:11:43 pm »

If Romney can only mange a +1 in an R+5 then he is going to get blown out.
Logged
Cliffy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 593
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1885 on: November 05, 2012, 02:21:23 pm »

If Romney can only mange a +1 in an R+5 then he is going to get blown out.


Ummm no, because as we've been hearing over and over from the much touted liberal pollsters the turnout is going to be along the lines of 2008 (d+7) or better.  With those numbers Obama can't even get to 50% or much above 47% and it's tied in a lot of the polls.  So we're talking a  13 point difference.  If Romney gets D+1 he most certainly wins.
Logged
Cliffy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 593
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1886 on: November 05, 2012, 02:22:51 pm »

Year Rasmussen Actual
2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)
2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)
2012 R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1) Huh??
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,381
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1887 on: November 05, 2012, 03:41:27 pm »

Wait, so Romney is really only +1 with R+6 turnout?

Trying to hold in my evil laughter...
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,618
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1888 on: November 05, 2012, 03:42:16 pm »

Reuters/Ipsos (final?) poll says Obama leads 48-46.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,886


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1889 on: November 05, 2012, 04:01:30 pm »

Reuters/Ipsos (final?) poll says Obama leads 48-46.

He was up 1 in their previous poll so that is good.
Logged
ajb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 869
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1890 on: November 05, 2012, 04:06:42 pm »

Wait, so Romney is really only +1 with R+6 turnout?

Trying to hold in my evil laughter...
You've forgotten to unskew Rasmussen with Rasmussen's own party id numbers.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,618
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1891 on: November 05, 2012, 04:07:17 pm »

RAND's final poll, I assume:

Obama 49.88%
Romney 45.49%

Slight gain from yesterday.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election
Logged
GMantis
Dessie Potter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,723
Bulgaria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1892 on: November 05, 2012, 04:13:18 pm »

If Romney can only mange a +1 in an R+5 then he is going to get blown out.


Ummm no, because as we've been hearing over and over from the much touted liberal pollsters the turnout is going to be along the lines of 2008 (d+7) or better.  With those numbers Obama can't even get to 50% or much above 47% and it's tied in a lot of the polls.  So we're talking a  13 point difference.  If Romney gets D+1 he most certainly wins.
So you're taking a favorable piece of information from one poll (Romney leading by 1 according to Rasmussen) and then mix with another favorable piece from another poll (Obama with only a narrow lead in a D+7 poll) so that you can prove that Obama is finished? And you're surprised that you're not taken seriously...
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,138


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1893 on: November 05, 2012, 04:17:38 pm »

ABC/WAPO final tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1143a15TrackingNo15.pdf
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,356


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1894 on: November 05, 2012, 04:22:45 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2012, 04:36:26 pm by Likely Voter »

Election Eve Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +4    (O+1)             [R+2]
ABC:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+3]
PPP:            Obama +2   (R+1)             [O+3]
Reuters:      Obama +2   (O+1)             [R+1]
UPI**:         Obama +1   (-)                  [-]
Rasmussen: Romney +1 (R+1)              [O+1]
Gallup:         Romney +1 (O+4*)           [O+4]
Zogby:         Romney +2 (R+2)             [new]

Average: Obama +1.0 (R +0.3) [O +1.1]


TIPP:      (no poll - final poll to be posted at 11pm PST)  


*last poll pre-Sandy
**final poll released Saturday
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,381
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1895 on: November 05, 2012, 04:23:07 pm »

ABC/WAPO final tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1143a15TrackingNo15.pdf

BOOM
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,618
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1896 on: November 05, 2012, 04:27:05 pm »

Obama is peaking at the right moment as undecideds decidedly break towards him. Fantastic news.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,618
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1897 on: November 05, 2012, 04:29:42 pm »

Romney's lead with whites in the ABC/WaPo poll is just 56-41. And with a white percentage of the vote of 74%, unchanged from 2008 (which is unlikely IMO). Tomorrow will be a good night.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,138


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1898 on: November 05, 2012, 04:38:02 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2012, 04:53:51 pm by Yank2133 »

Obama supporters are more enthusiastic according to the ABC poll.

Turnout is critical, with Obama’s slight edge relying on robust participation by Democrats and minorities and a competitive showing among independents. But there’s some evidence for it: his supporters are more strongly enthusiastic than Romney’s by an 8-point margin in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. That’s numerically the widest enthusiasm gap since early September.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,531
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1899 on: November 05, 2012, 05:03:41 pm »

It's often what happens in 'incumbent' elections, but not always, each side perceives the election differently. For example every challenger sees the election as a change election, so their supporters are more ethusiastic and have a purpose. The incumbents supporters aren't normally as driven, so take longer to engage.

I've argued that over-weighting the enthusiasm is a mistake, largely because (and this is only anecdotal) if the incumbent has positive approvals and the public like him, the likelihood of his base and associated voters abandoning him is low... not impossible, but low. Incumbents usually, with the exception of 1976 (but I generally treat that election a little separately), get thrown out of office in a wave. I, speaking with as much objectivity as I can muster, don't see ANY evidence of a wave.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC