National Tracking Poll Thread

[Tender Branson]

This will be a tracking poll:

46-42 Obama (Likely Voters)

45-39 Obama (Registered Voters)

...

Interview dates: August 24-27, 2012
Base: 857 registered voters (RV)
Base: 433 RV Democrats, 369 RV Republicans, 128 RV Independents
Base: 749 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11899

[Tender Branson]

DAY 2:

(Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney edged closer to President Barack Obama in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll on Tuesday as he mounts a sustained effort this week to sell himself and his vision for U.S. economic recovery at the Republican National Convention.

In a four-day rolling poll, Obama led Romney by two percentage points among likely voters, 45 percent to 43 percent. That was a slight narrowing of the gap from results of the rolling poll on Monday when Obama was ahead by four points.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-usa-campaign-poll-obama-idINBRE87R17B20120828

[Likely Voter]

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Obama +1
Obama     46 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     46 (-1)

[Tender Branson]

DAY 3:

(Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney pulled even with President Barack Obama in a Reuters/Ipsos poll on Wednesday, getting a boost from his party's nominating convention in Tampa this week.

In a four-day rolling poll, Romney and Obama were deadlocked among likely voters at 43 percent each. That was an improvement for Romney from Obama's two-point lead on Tuesday and four-point lead on Monday.

"There is movement toward Romney, which is traditional for a convention," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said. "It's small and the change is incremental, but it's been moving the last couple of days."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87S18U20120829

[Tender Branson]

In 2008, according to the RCP chart, the full bounce only showed up a few days after the conventions ended. So, the trackers should pick up the full GOP bounce by Tuesday next week and the Tuesday after that for the Democrats.

[tmthforu94]

The original poll must have been a little too pro-Obama, because I'm not sure if enough happened in the first two nights to change this race from +4 Obama to a tie. If the first two nights actually changed things that much (I don't think it did), Obama's in a heap of trouble.

[Tender Branson]

The original poll must have been a little too pro-Obama, because I'm not sure if enough happened in the first two nights to change this race from +4 Obama to a tie. If the first two nights actually changed things that much (I don't think it did), Obama's in a heap of trouble.

Maybe Romney will lead by 5 in this tracker after they have finished their polling.

With 3 additional points coming from Ryan and 2 points from Romney.

[MorningInAmerica]

Unless they were conducting this poll as late as 11PM last night (which I doubt), then today's 43-43% TIE is probably based on the strength of Ann Romney and Chris Christie's speech alone. Assuming they are using a 3 day rolling average, only 1 night of surveys for today's update would have been conducted after Ann and Christie's speeches. Any bounce by the Ryan speech probably won't be picked up until today/this evening's surveys. Which means it will show up in tomorrow's update. Likewise, we won't see any of the effects of Mitt Romney's speech tonight until Saturday morning's update.

[Likely Voter]

Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied
Obama     45 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Ipsos/Reuters: Romney +2
Obama     42  (-1)
Romney     44  (+1)


afternoon edit, added Ipsos/Reuters

[MorningInAmerica]

DAY 4:

Obama - 42% (-4 pts since 1st poll release Monday)
Romney- 44% (+2 pts since 1st poll release Monday)

Reuters reporter tweets this: https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/241274092379070465

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That's a net change of +6 points in Romney's favor since Monday, and Romney hasn't even given his speech yet.

Question: might it be more accurate to update the title of this thread to reflect the current tracking numbers?

[Likely Voter]

is this an ongoing thing or will it stop at the end of the DNC?

[MorningInAmerica]

is this an ongoing thing or will it stop at the end of the DNC?

I'm not sure. Though we can never have enough tracking polls!

[Likely Voter]

we should probably add this to the national tracking poll thread

[MorningInAmerica]

Good idea. Hopefully it won't disappear post-DNC.

[J. J.]

How did Ipsos/Reuters do in 2008?

[Likely Voter]

Friday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1
Obama     44 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46



1 week ago:

Rasmussen: Romney +1   
Obama     45
Romney     46

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46

[Eraserhead]

What a surprise, Rasmussen is already hard at work on a Romney bounce but Gallup isn't showing anything. lol.

[J. J.]

What a surprise, Rasmussen is already hard at work on a Romney bounce but Gallup isn't showing anything. lol.

First, we won't see the bounce until tomorrow at the earliest and probably not until mid week.

Second, Rasmussen was unchanged from last week.

LOL.

[Sbane]

Why would it take that long for a bounce to appear JJ? We should be able to tell by the weekend or early next week...though it is labor day weekend. Is that what you meant?

[Eraserhead]

He seems to think only Romney's speech itself can produce a bounce, not the rest of the convention.

[J. J.]

Why would it take that long for a bounce to appear JJ? We should be able to tell by the weekend or early next week...though it is labor day weekend. Is that what you meant?

First of all, the polling was yesterday afternoon/evening, so you don't a third of the convention, including Romney's or Rubio's speech.  You also have one sample from Tuesday afternoon/evening, prior to most or all of the speeches.

Yes, Labor Day polling will present a problem, because people travel or just decide not to answer their phones.

[MorningInAmerica]

What a surprise, Rasmussen is already hard at work on a Romney bounce but Gallup isn't showing anything. lol.

Why would it take that long for a bounce to appear JJ? We should be able to tell by the weekend or early next week...though it is labor day weekend. Is that what you meant?

Did you guys just miss this, or are you ignoring it for the sake of your argument?

Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied
Obama     45 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Ipsos/Reuters: Romney +2
Obama     42  (-1)
Romney     44  (+1)


afternoon edit, added Ipsos/Reuters

Out of the 3 tracking polls, 2 show a bounce. Rasmussen has shown a net +4 point bounce from Monday for Mitt Romney. He trailed Obama that day by 3, 47-44%, and now leads by 1, 45-44%

Reuters Ipsos has shown a more significant bounce, with Romney gaining a net 6 points from Monday (when he trailed Obama 46-42%. As of yesterday, he leads 44-42%, and that's without taking into account last night's speech).

So as you see there is certainly evidence to suggest that there is some degree of a bounce. So what were y'all saying again?

[Sbane]

I wasn't saying much at all, just asking JJ a question. Trying to understand his thought process is always an exciting endeavor. The bounce should be apparent on polling done today imho.

And I didn't know ipsos was showing a bounce since that is not regularly posted here. All I was seeing is Gallup staying steady and Rasmussen moving. But it's Rasmussen and Scott likes to volunteer on behalf of the Republican party so I didn't think too much of it. I am sure they will get a bounce. I derive no utility from denying reality so if it's there I will acknowledge it.

[J. J.]

I wasn't saying much at all, just asking JJ a question. Trying to understand his thought process is always an exciting endeavor. The bounce should be apparent on polling done today imho.

Not if it is a weak one, 2-3 points (which was my prediction).  Tuesday, Isaac was the lead story, it stepped on some of that.  Unless there is an exceptional speech (good or bad), nobody notices the rest.

Even a good one (Obama, 2004), I don't think moved the numbers too much.  It took a while for Buchannan's 1992 speech to register, and I think it killed the bounce for the most part.

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Rasmussen isn't showing anything, but Gallup is showing a slight increase.

"Today's polling" won't show up until tomorrow, at the earliest.

[Likely Voter]

I looked around and didnt find a number for today.