National Tracking Poll Thread

[pa2011]

Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

Actually, Romney falls 1 point, Obama stays the same.

Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 43% (-1)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

Actually that's 8 points - a greater margin than he won by in 2008.

[Earthling]

Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

You are looking at his approval ratings.

MIA is right.

[pa2011]

Correct: My apology for misreading. Regardless, pretty big Obama advantage in a poll that hasn't moved much at all since it started. Not sure what to make of his new lead.

[Lief 🗽]

The convention bounce continues!

[MorningInAmerica]

I'm pretty sure his continued gains have something to do with Gallup using a 7 day rolling average ( in other words, their are still surveys in the rolling average from last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday (probably some of the stronger days of polling for Obama).

Meanwhile, Ipsos/Reuters tracker does not have any days in their sample pre-Saturday (and Obama has fallen to 46-43%). Same for Rasmussen, where Obama has fallen to 46-45%.

The convention bounce continues!

That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Romney giving that horrible press conference about the attack in Libya where he smirked and grinned the whole time and blamed Obama for the attack sure isn't going to help the GOP camp.

[Earthling]

The approval rating poll is over three days, I believe. The presidential poll is over seven days.

[Umengus]

I think that O will be down in the thursday gallup poll.

[Earthling]

That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).

Rasmussen is not the best pollster. His numbers are twisted in such a way that he can go on Fox and keep the Republicans hope up.

[Umengus]

The approval rating poll is over three days, I believe.

but on adults

[Umengus]

That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).

Rasmussen is not the best pollster. His numbers are twisted in such a way that he can go on Fox and keep the Republicans hope up.

lol no

[Earthling]

Sadly, yes.

[pa2011]

Probably with Rasmussen is it flips and switches and seems to move too fast. Hard to read too much in his results on any one day since it moves so much when very, very few believe the electorate is changing its mind that quickly with this race, which has overall been remarkably stable.

[Eraserhead]

Romney is getting rocked pretty much everywhere over his bizarre comments.

[Likely Voter]

Reuters Ipsos LV: Obama +3

Obama:   48 (+2)
Romney:  45 (+2)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/us/2012-election/


EDIT: I looked closer and the poll was not from the daily tracker which is an online poll. This was a standard phone poll

[krazen1211]

Ras tracker:

Romney 47
Obama 46

[MorningInAmerica]

Ras tracker:

Romney 47
Obama 46

Including Leaners, Romney takes a 2 point lead on Rasmussen:
Romney: 49%
Obama: 47%.

[Earthling]

On Rasmussen.

[MorningInAmerica]

On Rasmussen.

Woops. Thanks. Corrected.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, yeah, for Romney not to be leading on Rasmussen's ridiculous sample would be a disaster for him. Now that Scotty R. has "proved" that he's still a legitimate polling firm by including Obama's convention bump, he can go back to shilling for Mitt and start pushing a "Obama's bounce is completely gone" narrative.

[J. J.]

Well, yeah, for Romney not to be leading on Rasmussen's ridiculous sample would be a disaster for him. Now that Scotty R. has "proved" that he's still a legitimate polling firm by including Obama's convention bump, he can go back to shilling for Mitt and start pushing a "Obama's bounce is completely gone" narrative.

Well, it is not "completely gone." and it probably isn't a good idea to cite "J.J.'s First Rule of Elections" in your sig while saying it.

The corollary to that rule is:  Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly.  So, you are still good. 

[AmericanNation]

Romney is getting rocked pretty much everywhere over his bizarre comments.

If by "everywhere" you mean the press corps.  Nothing bizarre about the comments so none of the spin will stick.  They might have successfully erased the golden moment where Mitt looked super presidential at a critical moment 12 hours before the president did anything.  Hard to say on that.      

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup today
Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 44% (+1)

Approval down to 49/42, after being 51/42% yesterday.

Well, yeah, for Romney not to be leading on Rasmussen's ridiculous sample would be a disaster for him. Now that Scotty R. has "proved" that he's still a legitimate polling firm by including Obama's convention bump, he can go back to shilling for Mitt and start pushing a "Obama's bounce is completely gone" narrative.

You can't really deny that his bounce is "gone", or fading, on every tracking poll (Reuters, Ras, Gallup). And I love reminding people that Rasmussen's house effect isn't as big as PPPs this year, per Nate Silver. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/