National Tracking Poll Thread

[Umengus]

Obama drops 1 in Gallup tracking poll, to 49. Romney stays same at 44. Obama +5.  (As an aside, shows you  how ridiculous Rasmussen's wild swings are)

gallup shows a slow decrease and it'is normal, considering that his poll is on 7 days. The bill clinton and obama speechs are still in...

[Umengus]

Anyone to give to me the party id of the ras national poll ? because I don't think that it's R +4... Only the august month was R +4 but the juny and july months were +- tied.

[MorningInAmerica]

So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913

I think you made my point. I wasn't arguing that Ras and Gallup and Reuters have different numbers. I argued that swings can be related to the length of the rolling average.  Consider that just two days ago Reuters had the race at 46-43%, and then one day later it was 48-41%, and they use a smaller rolling average than Gallup. That sort of backs up what I said to begin with, right?  The smaller the rolling average, the more likely you are to see what YOU referred to as "wild swings."

[J. J.]

So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913

Because Rasmussen is full of bunk gas.

No, it seems to be more accurate that Reuters.

[mondale84]

So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913

Because Rasmussen is full of bunk gas.

No, it seems to be more accurate that Reuters.

Scotty is more accurate than Reuters?!?!?!?! In what kind of deranged right-wing, Medicare-slashing, Oliver Twist killing, hackish, trollish world do you live in?

[J. J.]

So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913

Because Rasmussen is full of bunk gas.

No, it seems to be more accurate that Reuters.

Scotty is more accurate than Reuters?!?!?!?! In what kind of deranged right-wing, Medicare-slashing, Oliver Twist killing, hackish, trollish world do you live in?

Yes, as the link that you posted showed the RCP average as being +3.3 for Obama. 

[Andrew1]

The Ipsos/Reuters "daily" tracking poll is turning into more of an occasional tracking poll.

According to the Ipsos website it wasn't published on Wednesday (while their national phone poll was), or Friday this week.

[J. J.]

Gallup

Obama:  49 (u)

Romney:  45 (+2)

The bounce is wearing off; we will see how much of ot was in the numbers.

[Umengus]

Gallup

Obama:  49 (u)

Romney:  45 (+2)

The bounce is wearing off; we will see how much of ot was in the numbers.

Romney +1 and not+2

and tomorrow, the day after obama speech go away...

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen: 49-48 Obama

Gallup: 48-45 Obama

[Umengus]

Rasmussen: 49-48 Obama

Gallup: 48-45 Obama

come back to the situation before the conventions... 2 things maybe changed: better fav for Romney and base more energized for obama.

[MorningInAmerica]

9/17/12 - Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +2
Obama: 45% (-1)
Romney: 46% (-)

w/ leaners: TIE
Obama: 48% (-1)
Romney: 48% (-)

Rasmussen swing state poll: Romney +2
Obama: 45% (-)
Romney: 47% (-)

Rasmussen swing state w/ leaners: Romney +2
Obama: 47%
Romney: 49%

Gallup Registered Voters: Obama +3
Obama: 48% (-)
Romney: 45% (-)

[CultureKing]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

[Umengus]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Not bad, considering many in that list were supposed to be more favourable for Obama.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Not bad, considering many in that list were supposed to be more favourable for Obama.

Knowing Rasmussen, they probably polled 70% North-Carolinians and 30% everyone else or something.

[Likely Voter]

Gallup is unchanged

Obama: 48
Romney: 45


Approval is also unchanged at 50/44

[J. J.]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Romney +2 is fantastic with PA in the mix.  There could be 1-2 of the smaller states showing a large lead, however.

[Likely Voter]

You really start to see the power of Rasmussen whenever you see any GOP pundit on TV. Whenever someone talks about the polls and how Romney is losing they always say "well the Rasmussen poll shows...."  On Real Time with Ball Maher some GOPer started that and then everyone just started laughing at him. Of course it was a liberal group but even the GOPer seemed half-heated about the whole thing.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney leading by +2 in that collection of swing states makes no sense if you look at Rasmussen's actual state by state polling, IMO.

[Umengus]

You really start to see the power of Rasmussen whenever you see any GOP pundit on TV. Whenever someone talks about the polls and how Romney is losing they always say "well the Rasmussen poll shows...."  On Real Time with Ball Maher some GOPer started that and then everyone just started laughing at him. Of course it was a liberal group but even the GOPer seemed half-heated about the whole thing.

Ras is not the only pollster to give a tied race. Answer in november.

[mondale84]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

[Umengus]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC. CO, WI, NV, VA, OH, FL are tied. Ok for the rest.

[mondale84]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC.

Questionable

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You have just lost all credibility as a poster.

[Likely Voter]

WaPo has an article today just about what I was saying on how important Rasmussen is to the GOP polling pushback

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/17/rasmussen-the-gops-cure-for-the-common-poll/