National Tracking Poll Thread
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308318 times)
sobo
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« Reply #700 on: September 19, 2012, 08:29:51 PM »

Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +5

LV
Obama 48 (+1)
Romney 43

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afleitch
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« Reply #701 on: September 20, 2012, 04:54:25 AM »

The RAND American Life Panel - 19/09

Obama 49.29 (+0.51)
Romney 43.91 (-0.49)

The also released updateds on racial splits which are:

Whites - 52.8 - 48.2 for Romney
African Americans - 90.7 to 6.5 for Obama
Hispanics - 66.4 to 24.8 for Obama
Others - 59.7 to 35.6 for Obama
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afleitch
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« Reply #702 on: September 20, 2012, 08:45:58 AM »

Rassmussen

Obama 47
Romney 45

With leaners:

Obama 50
Romney 47
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #703 on: September 20, 2012, 09:02:47 AM »

Rassmussen

Obama 47
Romney 45

With leaners:

Obama 50
Romney 47



Seriously, these tracking polls are all over the place. Who knows what to think anymore. Isn't that a significant jump for Obama from yesterday?
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J. J.
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« Reply #704 on: September 20, 2012, 09:04:30 AM »

RAND is an Internet poll, though not self selecting.  http://www.rand.org/labor/roybalfd/american_life.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #705 on: September 20, 2012, 09:10:37 AM »



Seriously, these tracking polls are all over the place. Who knows what to think anymore. Isn't that a significant jump for Obama from yesterday?

We could be seeing the effect of Romney's 47% remark.  The timing is right.

Libya may have actually hurt Obama.
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Sbane
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« Reply #706 on: September 20, 2012, 09:12:55 AM »

I think the job numbers hurt Obama more. Most of the decline seemed to come right after Obama's speech, which is when those numbers came out. Libya is a decent hypothesis too.
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J. J.
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« Reply #707 on: September 20, 2012, 09:20:36 AM »

I think the job numbers hurt Obama more. Most of the decline seemed to come right after Obama's speech, which is when those numbers came out. Libya is a decent hypothesis too.

First, I really should say this Islamic world and not limit it to Libya.

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.
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afleitch
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« Reply #708 on: September 20, 2012, 09:30:49 AM »

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

Polls that directly ask voters how it alters their perception of the candidates say otherwise.
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J. J.
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« Reply #709 on: September 20, 2012, 10:28:11 AM »

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

Polls that directly ask voters how it alters their perception of the candidates say otherwise.

Yet Romney's numbers went up after that.
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Iosif
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« Reply #710 on: September 20, 2012, 11:00:01 AM »

Yes, correlation is always causation.
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Sbane
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« Reply #711 on: September 20, 2012, 12:31:19 PM »

I think the job numbers hurt Obama more. Most of the decline seemed to come right after Obama's speech, which is when those numbers came out. Libya is a decent hypothesis too.

First, I really should say this Islamic world and not limit it to Libya.

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

It was a missed opportunity for him. If he had just played it cool and presidential, he might have been able to gain some point. Instead he just reinforced the impression he will do anything to win elections.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #712 on: September 20, 2012, 02:12:04 PM »

Reuters/Ipsos remains at Obama+5 today:

48-43 Obama

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/20/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88I1E920120920?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

Which probably means that Gallup has a bad pro-Romney sample inside their numbers.
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J. J.
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« Reply #713 on: September 20, 2012, 02:29:08 PM »

Yes, correlation is always causation.

And he gained one on Gallup today.

47/47 all. 

Most of that sample is prior to to the 47% comment, however.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #714 on: September 20, 2012, 04:23:50 PM »

Today's RAND chart  is just brutal for Romney. 
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

I have no idea if it is a good methodology or not. I agree with Nate Silver that it is an interesting way of doing things.  If it turns out to be close to accurate I wonder if other pollsters will use the same approach
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sobo
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« Reply #715 on: September 20, 2012, 04:32:10 PM »

The RAND methodology seems like it would have problems with figuring out the absolute state of the race as they never reselect their sample. With Gallup, if there is an R or D heavy sample, it'll roll off eventually and you'll see that.

It seems like RAND would be excellent at identifying shifts in the race though. If RAND goes from O+3 to O+5, it must be because people in the sample either changed their vote or changed their likelihood of voting. The poll even shows how many people have changed their mind in the last week if you go to that tab.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #716 on: September 20, 2012, 04:36:28 PM »

i agree that it at least gives a good idea of trends. But obviously if they started with a bad sample then they are stuck with it. I don't know what they did to mitigate that, but it is a very large sample.
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J. J.
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« Reply #717 on: September 20, 2012, 06:18:09 PM »

Today's RAND chart  is just brutal for Romney. 
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

I have no idea if it is a good methodology or not. I agree with Nate Silver that it is an interesting way of doing things.  If it turns out to be close to accurate I wonder if other pollsters will use the same approach

It relies solely on people with Internet access on their own computer.  It is not however an "Internet poll" in the classic sense of the word.
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afleitch
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« Reply #718 on: September 21, 2012, 12:55:45 PM »

A handy comparison of the tracking polls by Nate Silver.

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #719 on: September 22, 2012, 03:47:44 AM »

One wonders what, exactly, happened with Gallup's poll.
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afleitch
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« Reply #720 on: September 22, 2012, 09:55:13 AM »

RAND 21 Sep

Obama 49.84
Romney 43.93

Every release they give us a snapshot of various demographics. Romney leads men by only 0.72. This is a huge change from the 15th when he led men by 6.76 and he had led with men fairly strongly since the start of the survey. Obama leads women by 12.18
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King
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« Reply #721 on: September 22, 2012, 05:06:44 PM »


Gallup and Rasmussen have been in conflict all cycle.  Rasmussen is swinging back to Obama so Gallup must keep the balance
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J. J.
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« Reply #722 on: September 22, 2012, 08:12:08 PM »


Gallup and Rasmussen have been in conflict all cycle.  Rasmussen is swinging back to Obama so Gallup must keep the balance

Gallup has the horse race tied at 47/47, Rasmussen at 46/46.

Rasmussen has a shorter sampling period, so it is more likely to respond to a shift quickly.  It is also more likely to reflect a bad sample.
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sobo
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« Reply #723 on: September 22, 2012, 09:46:42 PM »

Reuters/Ipsos Sept 17-21

Obama:  48 (nc)
Romney: 42 (-1)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/106649960/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-Daily-Election-Tracking-09-21-12
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J. J.
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« Reply #724 on: September 23, 2012, 12:23:16 PM »

Gallup:

Obama:  48%

Romney: 46%

Rasmussen:

Tied at 48%.
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