National Tracking Poll Thread

[Likely Voter]

Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

Scarborough knocked her down so many times. It was truly beautiful.

[Skill and Chance]

It's worth noting that Obama had overtaken McCain in the 2008 polling average 13 days after the end of the RNC.  That is the latest date that the national lead flipped in post-WWII history.  Obama is still moving slightly upward relative to the post-convention weekend and it has now been 17 days since the end of the DNC.

[Eraserhead]

Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

They'll just jump from Gallup to Rasmussen.

[Likely Voter]

Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

They'll just jump from Gallup to Rasmussen.

True but when anyone says "but Rasmussen says..." is obviously grasping at straws to anyone except the most hackish.

[J. J.]

Gallup has the 6 day cycle, so those are the numbers from the middle of last week, when Rasmussen showed an increase in approval number (47% comment response), that rolled off Rasmussen about three days later.  We will have to wait to see if this one drops off.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Obama: 47%

Romney: 46%

With leaners:  48/48

[sobo]

Reuters/Ipsos Sept 20-24

Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 43 (+1)

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-usa-campaign-poll-idINBRE88N13H20120924

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama:  48%

Romney:  46%

[sobo]

RAND 9/24
Obama:  49.71
Romney: 43.47

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup:

Obama: 48% (-)
Romney: 45% (-1).

Obama's approval drops from 51/42% to 50/43%. Remember the job rating is on a 3 day rolling average and is of all ADULTS, the horse-race is on a 7 day rolling average and is of registered voters only.

[sobo]

RAND 9/25

Obama:  50.18
Romney: 42.82

[J. J.]

Ramussen:

Tied at 46% each.

With leaners:

Romney:  48%

Obama:  46%

[Tender Branson]

Ahh, our daily dose of Rasmussen-trolling. Cute.

[Comrade Funk]

Ahh, our daily dose of Rasmussen-trolling. Cute.

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos/Reuters:

49-42 Obama (LV)
48-39 Obama (RV)

Interview dates: Sept 21-25, 2012
Base: 1,340 registered voters (RV)
Base for Voting Intention: 1,122 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12012

YouGov/Economist:

48-43 Obama (RV)

Conducted September 22-24, 2012
Margin of Error: +/- 4.7%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dqvatpi3fj/econToplines.pdf

[Earthling]

That can't be right. Rasmussen is telling us that Romney is winning. Ask J.J.

[Lief 🗽]

Ipsos/Reuters:

49-42 Obama (LV)
48-39 Obama (RV)

Interview dates: Sept 21-25, 2012
Base: 1,340 registered voters (RV)
Base for Voting Intention: 1,122 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12012

YouGov/Economist:

48-43 Obama (RV)

Conducted September 22-24, 2012
Margin of Error: +/- 4.7%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dqvatpi3fj/econToplines.pdf

Over a year of campaigning and a billion dollars spent and we're getting a repeat of 2008.

[Yank2133]

Obama hits 50% on Gallup

Obama-50%(+1)
Romney-44%(-1)

[pa2011]

Gallup Tracking Poll is now Obama 50 (+2)  Romney 44 (-1).  

[Tender Branson]

Considering their 7-day tracker, a HUGE Obama sample must have come in yesterday or so.

[Likely Voter]

On Sunday "it's tied on Gallup" was the talking point.

On Monday and Tuesday it was "It's statistically tied on Gallup"

Today: "Gallup is just another hack liberal pollster overestimating Democrats*"


*btw only trust Gallup when analyzing how this race is just like 1976, except ignore the president's Gallup approval rating in 1980 vs. 2012

[Lief 🗽]

hahahaha

awesome.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Daily tracking polls feed the hunger of political strategists, campaigns and the political press. I'm not sure they provide much in the way of anything else that a once a week national poll couldn't tell us. From day to day, This race is not changing at the pace Gallup tells it is. It is statistical noise within the margin of error.

[Craigo]

Daily tracking polls feed the hunger of political strategists, campaigns and the political press. I'm not sure they provide much in the way of anything else that a once a week national poll couldn't tell us. From day to day, This race is not changing at the pace Gallup tells it is. It is statistical noise within the margin of error.