National Tracking Poll Thread

[Umengus]

Rasmussen:

Obama: 47

Romney:  46

With leaners:  48/48

"Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 85% of Democrats. The GOP hopeful has a four-point edge among voters not affiliated with either major party."

so the R+4 sample is a myth...

[Tender Branson]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

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So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.

it was the same...

How do you know ? Do you have Premium access ? If you have it, you know his party ID anyway. Or are you just guessing ?

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama: 49%, -1

Romney: 44%, u

[King]

We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.

[J. J.]

We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.

Well, first, the comment was about Gallup.  Second, Rasmussen will be switching to likely voters tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.

Well, first, the comment was about Gallup.  Second, Rasmussen will be switching to likely voters leaners tomorrow.

Corrected the post for you.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rasmussen - Monday 1 October

Obama - 50% (+1)
Romney - 47% (UC)

[Tender Branson]

Swing States (Rasmussen):

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Beginning today, Rasmussen Reports is including “leaners” in the totals. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

[ChrisFromNJ]

Slowly but surely, Rasmussen will try to earn back credibility. The switch to a likely voters  screen is that opportunity.

BTW, you know the news is good for Obama when it is past 930 am and J.J still hadn't posted in the thread.

[Likely Voter]

Monday 1 October

Gallup: Obama +4
Obama - 49% (-)
Romney - 45% (+1)

Obama ticked up one on approval to 47/46


RAND: Obama +6.21
Obama - 50.06% (-0.15)
Romney - 43.75% (+0.42)

[sobo]

Reuters/Ipsos
Obama:  46 (-1)
Romney: 41 (-1)

[J. J.]

Rasmussen 48/47, Obama.

[ill ind]

  Adding that Rassmussen has Obama up 50-45 in the Swing State portion of the tracking poll meaning that the 48-47 topline poll, while still good news for Romney, isn't quite as good as it could be.

Ill_Ind

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama:  50, +1

Romney: 44, -1

[Reds4]

Not sure what today's movement in Gallup means.. great Obama sample just came on? Good Romney sample dropped off? Who knows.

[J. J.]

Not sure what today's movement in Gallup means.. great Obama sample just came on? Good Romney sample dropped off? Who knows.

I'd say that there isn't a drop off.  It looks like 4-6 point lead on Gallup, that is natural.  It is out of the six day cycle.

Right now, I'd predict an Obama victory, of under 310 EV's.

[Eraserhead]

Not sure what today's movement in Gallup means.. great Obama sample just came on? Good Romney sample dropped off? Who knows.

I'd say that there isn't a drop off.  It looks like 4-6 point lead on Gallup, that is natural.  It is out of the six day cycle.

Right now, I'd predict an Obama victory, of under 310 EV's.

There's really no reason to think that Romney would carry Florida if the election were today (which is basically the only way to keep Obama under 310 EVs).

[Sbane]

I think in the end Obama will lose Florida, unless there has been some real shifts among Cubans the last four years, and that's not the case I don't think. It's a more gradual shift that has been occurring over time. Otherwise I think Obama has pretty much sealed the deal in the rest of the Obama 2008 states except NC and IN. NC is a pure turnout battle and since I'm not on the ground I don't want to predict it.

[J. J.]

Honestly, I think FL will go Republican this year. 

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Obama 49, -1

Romney 45, +1

[sobo]

Rasmussen
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

RAND
Obama:  49.76 (-0.31)
Romney: 44.22 (+0.12)

Reuters/Ipsos
Obama:  47 (+1)
Romney: 41 (nc)

[J. J.]

Rasmussen:

Obama:  49%

Romney: 47%

Unchanged.

[Eraserhead]

Rasmussen:

Obama:  49%

Romney: 47%

Unchanged.

You'll have to wait a couple of days for the deluge.

[sobo]

Obama:  48
Romney: 43

Take it for what it's worth, only 538 people surveyed and it's of registered voters, though Reuters does say that all of the surveys were conducted after the debate.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/04/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121004

[Lief 🗽]

The one bright side of last night is, that if turns out Romney is still losing to Obama, then we can be pretty sure this election is basically over. If last night is not enough to put Romney into the lead, then nothing is.