National Tracking Poll Thread

[Ben Romney]

American Research Group:

Obama Job Approval Ratings
7/20/12 Approve Disapprove Undecided

Overall 46% 51% 3%
Economy 44% 52% 4%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

[AmericanNation]

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Lincoln Republican]

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Quote from the article.  

Romney’s has lead by four or five points for three consecutive days. That’s the largest advantage enjoyed by either candidate in over a month. As with any such change in the race, it remains to be seen whether it marks a lasting shift or is merely statistical noise.

It's happening..........it's happening..........

I hope the trash talking Dem war room will be able to sleep nights, but I suspect they will need some sleeping pills.  I'm sure they are getting very restless.  

Yes, very restless indeed.

What next from the cheap shot low lifes of Team Obama, why Ann Romney cannot be First Lady because she has MS?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Quote from the article.  

Romney’s has lead by four or five points for three consecutive days. That’s the largest advantage enjoyed by either candidate in over a month. As with any such change in the race, it remains to be seen whether it marks a lasting shift or is merely statistical noise.

It's happening..........it's happening..........

I hope the trash talking Dem war room will be able to sleep nights, but I suspect they will need some sleeping pills.  I'm sure they are getting very restless.  

Yes, very restless indeed.

What next from the cheap shot low lifes of Team Obama, why Ann Romney cannot be First Lady because she has MS?

Calm down Winfield, your hackness is showing. You know that no one takes outlier Rasmussen seriously. The pure fact that at the bottom of every post they have to claim that they are unbiased with "quotes" from Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter shows their bias.

[Lincoln Republican]

Hey, if such great Americans as Carter and Clinton say that, it must be true.

[Minnesota Mike]

Obama regains Razzy lead 47-45.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Gallup

Obama: 47
Romney: 45

[Minnesota Mike]

Rasmussen

Romney 47
Obama 43

6 point swing in 3 days? Gotta love the trackers.

[MorningInAmerica]

For 2nd day in a row, Romney-Ryan lead Obama-Biden on both daily tracking polls.

Gallup:
Romney - 47%
Obama- 45%

Rasmussen:
Romney - 47%
Obama - 43%

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st. Looks like the tracking polls are picking up on a slight Ryan bounce. Also interesting to see how close the two tracking polls are to each other.

[You kip if you want to...]

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Quote from the article.  

Romney’s has lead by four or five points for three consecutive days. That’s the largest advantage enjoyed by either candidate in over a month. As with any such change in the race, it remains to be seen whether it marks a lasting shift or is merely statistical noise.

It's happening..........it's happening..........

I hope the trash talking Dem war room will be able to sleep nights, but I suspect they will need some sleeping pills.  I'm sure they are getting very restless.  

Yes, very restless indeed.

What next from the cheap shot low lifes of Team Obama, why Ann Romney cannot be First Lady because she has MS?

Remember the lead McCain had after his VP announcement? Remember the GOP saying exactly this in September 2008?

[Likely Voter]

Friday's tracking polls
Rasmussen    (8/14 - 8/16)
Obama    46.0    
Romney    45.0    

Gallup    (8/09 - 8/15)    
Obama    45.0
Romney    47.0

I week ago (before Ryan)
Rasmussen    
Obama    43.0    
Romney    47.0    

Gallup        
Obama    45.0
Romney    45.0    

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Friday's tracking polls
Rasmussen    (8/14 - 8/16)
Obama    46.0    
Romney    45.0    

Gallup    (8/09 - 8/15)    
Obama    45.0
Romney    47.0

I week ago (before Ryan)
Rasmussen    
Obama    43.0    
Romney    47.0    

Gallup        
Obama    45.0
Romney    45.0    

Where's that Ryan bounce they keep talking about?

[Likely Voter]

Saturday


Rasmussen: Obama +2    
Obama    46
Romney    44    (-1)

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

[MorningInAmerica]

Where's that Ryan bounce they keep talking about?

It was there. Now it appears to be gone on Rasmussen, but still exists on Gallup. But either way, not sure how much a VP bounce really matters in the end anyway. Remember a guy named Jack  Kemp in 1996? Sarah Palin in 2008? Read this: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The fact that it seems to be back to being a tie/within the margin of error is not good news for Obama.

Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.

[MorningInAmerica]

Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.

That's exactly right. Remember these polls (from RCP) that came out in the days prior to the Ryan announcement?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.

That's exactly right. Remember these polls (from RCP) that came out in the days prior to the Ryan announcement?

Those were the last polls from any real pollster.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The fact that it seems to be back to being a tie/within the margin of error is not good news for Obama.

Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.

Gallup and Rasmussen didn't show those bumps so no, Obama shouldn't be worried. It was only the National Polls that showed it, not the Daily Trackers. And Nate Silver says that Gallup has been a bit more Republican-a leaning this cycle for some odd reason. Usually their quite accurate.

[Likely Voter]

So far there is really no evidence of a significant Ryan bounce.  Comparing just the two tracking polls to a week ago Romney is up 2 in Gallup but has dropped 5 in Rasmussen, so the net effect is a negative bounce. Nate Silver's analysis showed about a 0.8% bounce looking at all the state and tracking polls as of Thursday (it would be lower now due to Ras tracking).

We wont know for sure until before the RNC when we should see other polls out and we can compare to pre-Ryan

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup and Rasmussen didn't show those bumps so no, Obama shouldn't be worried. It was only the National Polls that showed it, not the Daily Trackers. And Nate Silver says that Gallup has been a bit more Republican-a leaning this cycle for some odd reason. Usually their quite accurate.

So far there is really no evidence of a significant Ryan bounce.  Comparing just the two tracking polls to a week ago Romney is up 2 in Gallup but has dropped 5 in Rasmussen, so the net effect is a negative bounce. Nate Silver's analysis showed about a 0.8% bounce looking at all the state and tracking polls as of Thursday (it would be lower now due to Ras tracking).

We wont know for sure until before the RNC when we should see other polls out and we can compare to pre-Ryan

Did you guys just completely miss this?:

That's exactly right. Remember these polls (from RCP) that came out in the days prior to the Ryan announcement?

And I don't think anyone is arguing there's been a significant bounce. But for that matter, Christian Heinze makes a great point that VP bounces certainly don't predict future election outcomes. So bounce or not, I'm not really sure that it matters. http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html

[Likely Voter]

bounce can only be tracked apples to apples. You are comparing the tracking polls to those other polls. But Obama was underwater in both tracking polls before Ryan, they were already polling  more pro Romney. As I said, we will know if he has a bounce when the other polls come in for comparison, but looking at JUST the tracking polls, Obama is up in one and down in the other. On average more up than down. That is just the facts.

really there just isn't enough data to determine a bounce yet.  What data there is (when you look at apples to apples state polls) shows a small bounce of less than 1% according to
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/aug-16-why-im-not-buying-the-romney-rally/

we will know more in a few days i suspect

[MorningInAmerica]

bounce can only be tracked apples to apples. You are comparing the tracking polls to those other polls. But Obama was underwater in both tracking polls before Ryan, they were already polling  more pro Romney. As I said, we will know if he has a bounce when the other polls come in for comparison, but looking at JUST the tracking polls, Obama is up in one and down in the other. On average more up than down. That is just the facts.

really there just isn't enough data to determine a bounce yet.  What data there is (when you look at apples to apples state polls) shows a small bounce of less than 1% according to
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/aug-16-why-im-not-buying-the-romney-rally/

we will know more in a few days i suspect

You're either making stuff up, or just misinformed.

For 2nd day in a row, Romney-Ryan lead Obama-Biden on both daily tracking polls.

Gallup:
Romney - 47%
Obama- 45%

Rasmussen:
Romney - 47%
Obama - 43%

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st. Looks like the tracking polls are picking up on a slight Ryan bounce. Also interesting to see how close the two tracking polls are to each other.

[Likely Voter]

Romney was ahead in the Ras poll before Ryan announced and he is currently behind. Im not sure why this is hard to comprehend.

[MorningInAmerica]

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st.

What exactly is hard to comprehend about that?

[Brittain33]

Well, this is the lead paragraph at Rasmussen today:

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