National Tracking Poll Thread
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308293 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1250 on: October 18, 2012, 06:36:15 PM »

I think that a couple things are happening with Gallup. First their LV model is too skewed to GOP (assuming they are using the same one as 2010 which was off by 8 points even in a big GOP year), and I think they ended up with a big red state pro-romney sample in there (the +22 in the south was a red flag) and these two things have resulted in an outlier. It happens. Of course the RAND poll may be just as fishy with its mirror image on the other side.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1251 on: October 18, 2012, 06:39:37 PM »

Meanwhile, Silver basically says what we have all said so far.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/
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J. J.
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« Reply #1252 on: October 18, 2012, 06:47:06 PM »

Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

The odds on two are about 400 to 1.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1253 on: October 18, 2012, 10:11:00 PM »

Way too early to know what the debate bounce will be like in the trackers (if there is one). All of these are majority pre-debate.

Plus, as I've pointed out before, the coverage of these debates is usually more important than the debates themselves. The coverage of this debate has definitely been more favorable toward Obama than his opponent (although it admittedly doesn't quite compare to the Romney lovefest that happened after the first one).

It will take days for things to sink in.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1254 on: October 18, 2012, 10:21:49 PM »

Way too early to know what the debate bounce will be like in the trackers (if there is one). All of these are majority pre-debate.

Plus, as I've pointed out before, the coverage of these debates is usually more important than the debates themselves. The coverage of this debate has definitely been more favorable toward Obama than his opponent (although it admittedly doesn't quite compare to the Romney lovefest that happened after the first one).

It will take days for things to sink in.

We might start getting something on Rasmussen tomorrow, if there is anything.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #1255 on: October 18, 2012, 11:44:40 PM »

Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

The odds on two are about 400 to 1.

so not too big then
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J. J.
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« Reply #1256 on: October 19, 2012, 08:43:00 AM »

Rasmussen:

Romney:  48, -1

Obama:  48, +1
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afleitch
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« Reply #1257 on: October 19, 2012, 09:55:55 AM »

PPP

Obama 48
Romney 47 (-1)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1258 on: October 19, 2012, 11:24:16 AM »

THE BOUNCE HAS BEGUN
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J. J.
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« Reply #1259 on: October 19, 2012, 11:25:42 AM »


Ah, Obama didn't go up.  Smiley
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1260 on: October 19, 2012, 11:31:17 AM »


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krazen1211
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« Reply #1261 on: October 19, 2012, 11:33:07 AM »


PPP - Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer
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J. J.
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« Reply #1262 on: October 19, 2012, 11:34:50 AM »


Don't make me use the panic man.  Wink
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1263 on: October 19, 2012, 11:37:35 AM »

The thing is, Obama was doing worse than last week than he is now, so the debate did shift things somewhat. He recovered points even before the debate, so there wasn't going to be a huge change at the stage, anyway.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1264 on: October 19, 2012, 11:40:06 AM »

The thing is, Obama was doing worse than last week than he is now, so the debate did shift things somewhat. He recovered points even before the debate, so there wasn't going to be a huge change at the stage, anyway.

Ah, no. 
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1265 on: October 19, 2012, 11:45:57 AM »


Such an intelligent response.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1266 on: October 19, 2012, 11:59:06 AM »

Obama was down 4 points on Sunday. Now, after the debate, he is up 1 point. How is that not a bounce?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1267 on: October 19, 2012, 12:00:47 PM »

a) everyone calm down, we're talking about one set if state polls re:PPP
b) most expected a very small bump if anything
c) Obama IS in better shape than he was last week, but that process began before the debate
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Marston
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« Reply #1268 on: October 19, 2012, 12:27:50 PM »

Gallup:

RV:

Romney - 48% (NC)
Obama - 47% (NC)

LV:

Romney - 51% (-1)
Obama 45% (NC)

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Cliffy
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« Reply #1269 on: October 19, 2012, 12:34:05 PM »

He's bouncing like a rock dropped in the swimming pool.  Marist and PPP were certainly trying to give impression of a bounce but only people on here believe that.

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GMantis
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« Reply #1270 on: October 19, 2012, 12:37:04 PM »

He's bouncing like a rock dropped in the swimming pool.  Marist and PPP were certainly trying to give impression of a bounce but only people on here believe that.
PPP said that the debate was not a game changer.
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Umengus
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« Reply #1271 on: October 19, 2012, 12:46:06 PM »


no...

"In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage. Tomorrow morning (Saturday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate."

And (credible) state polls give a boost for Romney Wink
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Umengus
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« Reply #1272 on: October 19, 2012, 12:50:12 PM »


Party id: D +4

Romney leads Indepedents voters by 5. he willl not lose with this margin.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1273 on: October 19, 2012, 01:00:01 PM »


Uh, he did in Rasmussen (and even that is only 2/3 post-debate).
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J. J.
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« Reply #1274 on: October 19, 2012, 01:06:45 PM »


Double that of the quoted material. 
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