National Tracking Poll Thread

[Umengus]

Rasmussen:

Romney 50% (nc)

Obama 46% (nc)

Swing state tracking:

Romney 50% (nc)

Obama 46% (+1)

It sounds like a debate bump may be on the way:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

I don't think. The Romney +4 was the outlier. romney +2 is the norm.

PPP: "Tuesday was a tie in our national tracking and a good Saturday for Romney rolled off, hence the overall tie"

[Eraserhead]

And so...

PPP:

Obama 48 (+1)

Romney 48 (-1)

UPI:

Obama 49 (+1)

Romney 47 (-1)


Obama is having a very big day. Early signs of a debate bounce? Natural tightening? It certainly can't have anything to do with the Murdock story yet.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama is having a very big day. Early signs of a debate bounce?

I think it's more of a "Romney basically stinks" bounce.

[afleitch]

IBD/TIPP

Obama 47
Romney 44

Obama up 3 (was +2 yesterday)

[old timey villain]

Gallup is bipolar, let's just admit it. Or they reflect an America that is bipolar.

"53% of voters approve of the Job the current president is doing, but almost as many want the other guy in office instead." People say Americans are self hating masochists, and perhaps we are.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Has Gallup ever been this far off? I know they are not what they used to be, but predicting a 4-5 point win for the challenger and then the president wins would be just awful.

[Eraserhead]

RAND:

Obama 49 (+1)

Romney 45 (-1)

Pro-Obama movement in every poll today except Rasmussen which basically admitted there will be pro-Obama movement tomorrow.

[Umengus]

Gallup is bipolar, let's just admit it. Or they reflect an America that is bipolar.

"53% of voters approve of the Job the current president is doing, but almost as many want the other guy in office instead." People say Americans are self hating masochists, and perhaps we are.

53 % of adults...

[Eraserhead]

Has Gallup ever been this far off? I know they are not what they used to be, but predicting a 4-5 point win for the challenger and then the president wins would be just awful.

Well, they're only +3 now.

[Oakvale]

Reverse deluge!!!1

[Eraserhead]

Just waiting for Reuters/Ipsos and ABC/Washington Post now, I guess.

[Reds4]

Definitely Obama's best polling day in quite a while so far.

[Lief 🗽]

THE DEBATE BOUNCE HAS ARRIVED

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

THE DEBATE BOUNCE HAS ARRIVED

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I think everyone might be jinxing it; watch Reuters and Wash Post show steady or bounce Romney. Was media coverage even good enough for Obama to get a bounce?

[Joe Biden 2020]

THE DEBATE BOUNCE HAS ARRIVED

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I think everyone might be jinxing it; watch Reuters and Wash Post show steady or bounce Romney. Was media coverage even good enough for Obama to get a bounce?

This.  Two polls, Rassy and Gallup still show Romney ahead, Rassy by 4 and Gallup by 3.  Rassy is partisan, but they're still a valid pollster.  The Gallup poll yesterday showed Romney up by 5, so a debate "bounce" that still puts your opponent ahead in the poll, is something I would pass on.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

THE DEBATE BOUNCE HAS ARRIVED

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I think everyone might be jinxing it; watch Reuters and Wash Post show steady or bounce Romney. Was media coverage even good enough for Obama to get a bounce?

This.  Two polls, Rassy and Gallup still show Romney ahead, Rassy by 4 and Gallup by 3.  Rassy is partisan, but they're still a valid pollster.  The Gallup poll yesterday showed Romney up by 5, so a debate "bounce" that still puts your opponent ahead in the poll, is something I would pass on.

And of course, Reuters says Romney is ahead 47-46 percent. But..... 3/4 of the interviews are pre-debate.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Gallup is bipolar, let's just admit it. Or they reflect an America that is bipolar.

"53% of voters approve of the Job the current president is doing, but almost as many want the other guy in office instead." People say Americans are self hating masochists, and perhaps we are.

53 % of adults...

It's still a little absurd. Obama's aggregate disapproval on RCP is lower than it's been since April and as low as it's been since January, and his approval is only a few tenths of a per cent below 50, where it was for only two days during the high tide in September.

[krazen1211]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!

[J. J.]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!

Actually, this could be close.  D's have a higher percentage in early voting.  It tended to be higher, in terms of registration, in 2008. 

[Sbane]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!

Why is it junk? You do realize a lot of people vote early and absentee, don't you? In Washington and Oregon basically everyone does. In a lot of other western states, including California with more than 10% of national voters, about half the voters do. I already have my ballot and I will be sending it out pretty soon as well.

[krazen1211]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!

Why is it junk? You do realize a lot of people vote early and absentee, don't you? In Washington and Oregon basically everyone does. In a lot of other western states, including California with more than 10% of national voters, about half the voters do. I already have my ballot and I will be sending it out pretty soon as well.

Certainly because it doesn't line up with the facts on the ground. Unless you believe in a complete breakdown of past, present, and future tenses. California counties reported only 4 million early votes and that is not even close to half. There is no known count of 22 million early votes already cast.

[Sbane]

Even if I vote tonight and send in my ballot, I highly doubt it will even reach them for another couple of days, if not more. On top of that it might take them even more time just to record it on some online database.

[Likely Voter]

EDIT: Fixed error on Reuters

Wednesday Summary

PPP
Obama  48 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)

Rasmussen
Obama  46
Romney 50

RAND (Rounded)
Obama  49 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

Gallup
Obama  47 (+1)
Romney 50 (-1)

Reuters
Obama  46 (-1)
Romney 47 (+1)

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama  47
Romney 44 (-1)

UPI
Obama  49 (+1)
Romney 47 (-1)

ABC
Obama  48
Romney 49


Lead Summary
Rand:      Obama +4  (O+2)
TIPP:      Obama +3  (O+1)
UPI:       Obama +2  (O+2)
PPP:       TIE       (O+2)
Reuters:   Romney +1  (R+2)
ABC:       Romney +1 (-)
Gallup:    Romney +3 (O+2)
Rasmussen: Romney +4 (-)
 
Average: Tied (O+0.9)

[krazen1211]

Reuters is Romney + 1. Last was Obama + 1.

[Likely Voter]

Fixed. The race is tied. It has returned to where it was on Sunday.  Hard to say if yesterday's Romney surge and today's Obama surge are anything more than noise.