National Tracking Poll Thread

[Cliffy]

Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...

Except for the fact that he's never lead in a poll in Ohio, or Nevada for that matter.

[J. J.]

Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...

He could just be up big in 2 or 3 states, NC and FL. 

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos Reuters (Oct. 27):

47% Obama (+1)
45% Romney (nc)

The survey was conducted October 23-27. It sampled 1,665 registered voters and 1,291 likely voters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/27/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121027

[Lief 🗽]

Excellent. Support for Obama is clearly growing.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...

He could just be up big in 2 or 3 states, NC and FL. 

Math doesn't work that way. The 11 states tracked are CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.
If the average is Romney +6, and the average of all the states except NC and FL are a tossup (optimistic for Romney), then Romney would have to be leading by double digits in NC and FL.

Truth of the matter is: either Scotty is pulling numbers out of his ass on this poll, or on the North Carolina one. (or both)

[Yank2133]

IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

[Umengus]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

[Yank2133]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?

[Umengus]

IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11

[ajb]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

They were hardly spectacular in 2008, missing the result in the seven most-polled states in the final week by around 2.5%, a slightly larger error than ARG or Zogby:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg

[Umengus]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?

it was not a presidential election. And the best of Rasmussen is his national tracking poll. His state polls can be wrong sometimes.

[King]

IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11

So, what do you picture them doing when someone answers republican? Hangup the phone?

[ajb]

IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11

As you know, of course, if Democrats were a smaller share of the sample, Romney wouldn't be doing so well with independents.

[Yank2133]

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?

it was not a presidential election. And the best of Rasmussen is his national tracking poll. His state polls can be wrong sometimes.

They were poor in 2000, good in 2004, and merely average in 2008.

Silver has already destroyed the myth of Rasmussen being accurate.

[Ty440]

Ipsos Reuters (Oct. 27):

47% Obama (+1)
45% Romney (nc)

The survey was conducted October 23-27. It sampled 1,665 registered voters and 1,291 likely voters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/27/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121027

Obama Surging !

[Eraserhead]

No change in Gallup's LV or RV polls today.

[dirks]

Romney continues to thrash him in Gallup

Romney 51
obama - 46

[Lief 🗽]

The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

[Cliffy]

And Silver predicted 54 house pickups by GOP and Rasmussen by 55, so technically he sucked worse than Rasmussen, what a sterling and objective source you have there.

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?

it was not a presidential election. And the best of Rasmussen is his national tracking poll. His state polls can be wrong sometimes.

They were poor in 2000, good in 2004, and merely average in 2008.

Silver has already destroyed the myth of Rasmussen being accurate.

[Umengus]

IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11

As you know, of course, if Democrats were a smaller share of the sample, Romney wouldn't be doing so well with independents.

wrong and ppp proved that 2 weeks ago with his Romney +2 and +4 polls. Rasmussen says the same. Gallup too.

[Umengus]

The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

[Devils30]

As for House pickups, you do know it is extremely difficult to estimate this with 435 races across America. Silver's model was pretty good in being within 10 seats. Additionally, he had the GOP keeping NV and CO senate seats in 2010.

[Lief 🗽]

The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

[King]

The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

A vote for Obama has become a vote to debunk thousands of misconceptions about the nature of the universe.