National Tracking Poll Thread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

Yaaaay!!!

[Yank2133]

It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

What makes it even more funny is that some of the ones complaining about it(dirk) have green avatars.

[ajb]

It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

Yaaaay!!!

I'd add that, if you're going to accuse almost all the pollsters in the country of lying about their methodology, then why even bother talking about any of the numbers they produce?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is lying too strong a word? I think the methodologies are just too varied and are having a hard time keeping up with changes.

[Lief 🗽]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

How did Mitt Romney's favorable numbers leap above Obama's in such a big way? Historians will be left scratching their heads about that for decades. Gully/Al are probably right: this smacks of Cleggmania. Nothing Romney did outside of the media's change in narrative/hype can explain this and I doubt that voters are that fickle, especially when it comes to a caricicture like Mittens.

Obama's decline in approval ratings makes sense: that bump in September seemed artificial and driven by the DNC.

[ajb]

Is lying too strong a word? I think the methodologies are just too varied and are having a hard time keeping up with changes.

Well, if someone thinks that a pollster is oversampling Democrats, and that pollster doesn't weight for party ID, then aren't they basically saying that the pollster is using a different method from the one the pollster claims to use?

[xavier110]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

Yes, pretty much.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

He's not being crushed at the levels necessary to explain the state of national polling. Even with the large swings against him in the traditionally anti-incumbent plains, the combination of demographic shifts/the last white Democrats ditching the party in the South and the sizeable swings in the Northeast, Obama is around 1-2 points ahead.

Color me skeptical.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

He's not being crushed at the levels necessary to explain the state of national polling. Even with the large swings against him in the traditionally anti-incumbent plains, the combination of demographic shifts/the last white Democrats ditching the party in the South and the sizeable swings in the Northeast, Obama is around 1-2 points ahead.

Color me skeptical.

It still don't get how it's close with Obama's approvals THAT underwater (as in weirdly out)...

[Lief 🗽]

The state polls are consistent with an Obama lead nationally of 2% or so. I don't know why the national polls disagree, but I'm gonna put my trust in state polls before national ones.

[Fargobison]

Yeah I have never really been able to understand why PPP's state numbers don't agree with their national numbers, if Romney is +1 nationally he certainly isn't tied in NC or -5 in VA. Rasmussen seems to be closer to what I'd expect.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, just an observation. It should be interesting to see what happens when PPP expands their polling to more states this week, I think they said they were going to do 20 different states.

[Lief 🗽]

WaPo is also holding steady at 49-48, though this is through Saturday (instead of through Sunday for PPP).

[Lief 🗽]

BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Yeah I have never really been able to understand why PPP's state numbers don't agree with their national numbers, if Romney is +1 nationally he certainly isn't tied in NC or -5 in VA. Rasmussen seems to be closer to what I'd expect.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, just an observation. It should be interesting to see what happens when PPP expands their polling to more states this week, I think they said they were going to do 20 different states.

Nah, Rasmussen's swing states tracker is at the same level as its last North Carolina poll. Exactly the same thing.

[Eraserhead]

BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

They all need to follow suit. National polling is going to be useless for the next week imo.

[Silent Hunter]

BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

They all need to follow suit. National polling is going to be useless for the next week imo.

[DrScholl]

Rasmussen

Romney 49
Obama 47

[Yank2133]

UPI

Obama-48
Romney-47

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

Obama might not win a single county in WV.  Just let that sink in. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama might not win a single county in WV.

He will.

[dirks]

Gallup 10/29/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

[Lief 🗽]

BREAKING: GALLUP DAILY TRACKING SUSPENDED DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

It looks like it's up to Rasmussen and RAND to ride us through this storm.

[Eraserhead]

Haha, Gallup's crappy poll is saved by the bell. Good decision though.