National Tracking Poll Thread

[Sam Spade]

We are now at the point where we can actually start looking at general election polls without laughing too much.

As I said middle of last year, this particular election cycle still looks to me to be a reversion to the world of 1996-2004 at all levels.  I really don't see how Romney/Obama go below 47 or above 52 in the end.  And I don't see how the Democrats take the House back.  Senate is still 50-50 in my view - the seats that can flip in a 1996-2004 world (i.e. <10%) are:

DEM to GOP: Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin
GOP to DEM: Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada (Indiana could flip if open)

[Sam Spade]

With the kind of fighting going on in this thread over poll quality, you'd think the election was this upcoming Tuesday.

Very true.  I really don't particularly trust Rasmussen or PPP to a certain extent at this point because they both have an agenda of some sort to promote.

Nationally, what I can't figure out about Rasmussen in 2010 is that his Congressional generic ballot was so off, yet his partisan ID numbers and Obama approval were dead-on accurate.