National Tracking Poll Thread

[Umengus]

Update III: Rasmussen informs me that the D/R/I in this sample is 33/34/33, which is very close to the 35/35/29 from the midterms.  If anything, it might oversample independents just a bit, but otherwise looks pretty solid.

source: hotair.com

[Umengus]

Ras is the only pollster to use "lv" model. Others prefer still RV. And RV are more democratic than LV.... That explains why ras shows Romney ahead.

When all pollsters will use LV model, Romney will be in a better position than now.

[Umengus]

between D +0 and D +2 seems good for me. 2012 will be a little like 2004 IMO.

[Umengus]

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

[Umengus]

Obama should be down (2 p at least) tomorrow in the ras poll. If not, Romney in trouble...

[Umengus]

Reuters Update for Tuesday, September 11th

Obama drops 2 points.

Obama: 46% (-2)
Romney: 43% (no change)

So both Rasmussen and Reuters show Obama falling today, while Gallup (of registered voters) finds Obama continuing today.

Gallup is on 7-days...

[Umengus]

I think that O will be down in the thursday gallup poll.

[Umengus]

The approval rating poll is over three days, I believe.

but on adults

[Umengus]

That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).

Rasmussen is not the best pollster. His numbers are twisted in such a way that he can go on Fox and keep the Republicans hope up.

lol no

[Umengus]

Is it really that hard to believe that Democratic enthusiasm is much higher than Republican enthusiasm at this point? Romney was never exciting but now he's just getting embarrassing.

yes it's hard to believe.

[Umengus]

Obama drops 1 in Gallup tracking poll, to 49. Romney stays same at 44. Obama +5.  (As an aside, shows you  how ridiculous Rasmussen's wild swings are)

gallup shows a slow decrease and it'is normal, considering that his poll is on 7 days. The bill clinton and obama speechs are still in...

[Umengus]

Anyone to give to me the party id of the ras national poll ? because I don't think that it's R +4... Only the august month was R +4 but the juny and july months were +- tied.

[Umengus]

Gallup

Obama:  49 (u)

Romney:  45 (+2)

The bounce is wearing off; we will see how much of ot was in the numbers.

Romney +1 and not+2

and tomorrow, the day after obama speech go away...

[Umengus]

Rasmussen: 49-48 Obama

Gallup: 48-45 Obama

come back to the situation before the conventions... 2 things maybe changed: better fav for Romney and base more energized for obama.

[Umengus]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

[Umengus]

You really start to see the power of Rasmussen whenever you see any GOP pundit on TV. Whenever someone talks about the polls and how Romney is losing they always say "well the Rasmussen poll shows...."  On Real Time with Ball Maher some GOPer started that and then everyone just started laughing at him. Of course it was a liberal group but even the GOPer seemed half-heated about the whole thing.

Ras is not the only pollster to give a tied race. Answer in november.

[Umengus]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC. CO, WI, NV, VA, OH, FL are tied. Ok for the rest.

[Umengus]

What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC.

Questionable

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You have just lost all credibility as a poster.

LOL

[Umengus]

Gallup's 7 day rolling average of REGISTERED voters has the race exactly back where it was on Tuesday, before the start of the DNC.

Obama: 47% (-1)
Romney: 46% (+1)

The race is over

[Umengus]

It's actually 48-48 today on Rasmussen with leaners.

Don't know why RCP refuses to post these leaner numbers instead of the leaner-less numbers.

Maybe because Romney is ahead with the latter and it's a tie with the former ?

because others don't push the leaners yet...

[Umengus]

Rasmussen:

Obama: 47

Romney:  46

With leaners:  48/48

"Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 85% of Democrats. The GOP hopeful has a four-point edge among voters not affiliated with either major party."

so the R+4 sample is a myth...

[Umengus]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

[Umengus]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

I'm glad he's finally admitted it.

so not R+4...

[Umengus]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

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So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

[Umengus]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.

it was the same...