National Tracking Poll Thread

[GMantis]

It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.

[GMantis]

So the bounce seems not to have receded as quickly as previously thought.

[GMantis]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)

[GMantis]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)

That methodology is really bad.

How so?

[GMantis]

It seems that instead of the Romney bounce receding, it's a short lived Obama bounce that is receding.

[GMantis]

He's bouncing like a rock dropped in the swimming pool.  Marist and PPP were certainly trying to give impression of a bounce but only people on here believe that.

PPP said that the debate was not a game changer.

[GMantis]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  48, (u)

[GMantis]

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49%, u

Obama:  48, -1

Mittmentum?

[GMantis]

If Romney can only mange a +1 in an R+5 then he is going to get blown out.

Ummm no, because as we've been hearing over and over from the much touted liberal pollsters the turnout is going to be along the lines of 2008 (d+7) or better.  With those numbers Obama can't even get to 50% or much above 47% and it's tied in a lot of the polls.  So we're talking a  13 point difference.  If Romney gets D+1 he most certainly wins.

So you're taking a favorable piece of information from one poll (Romney leading by 1 according to Rasmussen) and then mix with another favorable piece from another poll (Obama with only a narrow lead in a D+7 poll) so that you can prove that Obama is finished? And you're surprised that you're not taken seriously...